Fantasy Football Draft Kit [Preview] (08/02/2012)

[NamelessPimp]

2012: Draft Kit (Preview Article)
-@danamelesspimp

This year marks a different trend in fantasy football. A combination of influences has propelled many of the top tier QBs to the front of owner’s draft boards this year. This is especially important for those of you who play in leagues where passing touchdowns are worth 6 points. The added component of a new philosophy in the NFL to move to multi-back rotations, and quarterbacks are looking like an increasingly safe pick to amass a large amount of points. There are a few questions you may want to sit back and ask yourself before heading into your draft. Where am I picking in the draft and is safe always going to win my league?

Quarterback is arguably the safest position. Most QBs play all 16 games and produce one of the most consistent stat lines year to year. That catapults the top trio of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees into the first round for most draft owners. These QBs carried some teams to the playoffs let alone their actual team. It’s hard to disagree based on their impact in fantasy leagues last year. However, in recent years the Quarterback position has not been one separated by a large margin and there still remains great value on QBs later in the draft outside of the top 3. A couple QBs to target later on: Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jake Locker. Locker looks to be in line to become the starter this season and possesses the potential to be a number 1 fantasy QB. He’s going undrafted in most leagues and it’d be wise to add him with your last pick as a number 2 QB.

Even though the Quarterbacks seem like a high and safe first round selection I still wouldn’t take any of them over the top 3 runningbacks. Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, and Ray Rice are that much better than the majority of runningbacks that they are deemed irresistible with the top 3 picks. Subtract Michael Tolbert from the Chargers, and Ryan Matthews could easily be included in this discussion, as well as a healthy Darren McFadden and motivated Chris Johnson, for those picking later in Round 1. Trent Richardson is…

 

[K-O-B]

I've been drafting a QB in the first round since 07 in most leagues. Has worked out great (except the year Brady blew out his knee)

 

[NamelessPimp]

I've been drafting a QB in the first round since 07 in most leagues. Has worked out great (except the year Brady blew out his knee)

In Standard scoring leagues last year there was a huge increase in points from the QB position. In 2010, the highest scoring QB was Tom Brady and he scored 112 pts less than Rodgers last year. Before 2011 there wasn't a large amount of points that seperated QBs either.

You can draft a QB in the first round, but you can find great value in the later rounds this year. 2011 was an off-year for most of the QBs outside of the top 3.

 

[K-O-B]

In Standard scoring leagues last year there was a huge increase in points from the QB position. In 2010, the highest scoring QB was Tom Brady and he scored 112 pts less than Rodgers last year. Before 2011 there wasn't a large amount of points that seperated QBs either.

You can draft a QB in the first round, but you can find great value in the later rounds this year. 2011 was an off-year for most of the QBs outside of the top 3.

My reasoning is QB's 1-3 have been huge and most consistent. RB/WR's 2-20 are similar and hit or miss; plus, it's much easier hitting on a sleeper RB/WR (via draft or free agency) then a QB.

All those years I tried for a QB in round one, and then drafted 5 RB's and 5 WR's hoping two at each position clicked (or found another via free agency).

 

[K-O-B]

That is exactly what I continue into next. I mentioned that the new philosophy is the rotation of back for teams. That is definitely taking away value from those mid-tier RBs. The QB is by far the safest. I think the WR position is pretty dependable too though. He may only be hit with one big injury at most at that spot versus the RB position. I'd certainly hone in on Mike Wallace with him slipping in drafts right now. Todd Haley's offense has a lot of freestyle movement for the WRs to get open so him missing time means nothing except he might be out of shape. In the RB category. I'm high on Reggie Bush this year. I think he could explode in that offense and be a huge playmaker for the Dolphins.

I like Ben Jarvis this year. Going in the 5th/6th round, doesn't fumble, finds the endzone, and Bungles like to run.
But I try to hone in mostly on RB's that get receptions.

 

[NamelessPimp]

I like Ben Jarvis this year. Going in the 5th/6th round, doesn't fumble, finds the endzone, and Bungles like to run.
But I try to hone in mostly on RB's that get receptions.

He's a very solid pick in those rounds. Hopefully Dalton improves to get him the goal line carries. Being a Patriots and Chargers fan, I've seen plenty of his games. He's hard running and always falls into the endzone. At times he's slow to hit the gaps, but he's solid overall.

 

[K-O-B]

He's a very solid pick in those rounds. Hopefully Dalton improves to get him the goal line carries. Being a Patriots and Chargers fan, I've seen plenty of his games. He's hard running and always falls into the endzone. At times he's slow to hit the gaps, but he's solid overall.

Patriots and Chargers? God I hate the chargers because they are arrogant a$$holes and suck and choke all the time. Cry about one thing, and then turn around and do the same thing.

 

[NamelessPimp]

Patriots and Chargers? God I hate the chargers because they are arrogant a$$holes and suck and choke all the time. Cry about one thing, and then turn around and do the same thing.

Just moved to San Diego. Hopefully they turn things around. I see big numbers out of that offense this year. I'm going as high as Ryan Matthews at #4 overall.

 

[K-O-B]

Just moved to San Diego. Hopefully they turn things around. I see big numbers out of that offense this year. I'm going as high as Ryan Matthews at #4 overall.

I see a ton of people high on him. I don't see it, that team is always a mess.

 

[NamelessPimp]

I see a ton of people high on him. I don't see it, that team is always a mess.

The fact Antonio Gates is coming in healthy and they have 3 solid WRs at the moment. Tolbert gone, Matthews gets all the goal line carries now. He's one of the few workhorse RBs in the league. He's a safe choice than MJD, McFadden, and Chris Johnson. I really think the MJD holdout goes into the regular season. He might want to preserve his body some in order for teams to feel more reluctant giving him big money when he gets out this contract.

 

[K-O-B]

The fact Antonio Gates is coming in healthy and they have 3 solid WRs at the moment. Tolbert gone, Matthews gets all the goal line carries now. He's one of the few workhorse RBs in the league. He's a safe choice than MJD, McFadden, and Chris Johnson. I really think the MJD holdout goes into the regular season. He might want to preserve his body some in order for teams to feel more reluctant giving him big money when he gets out this contract.

I can't see Gates making it through a full season, and I'm in the "he lost a step boat." Not a fan of any of the other RB's you listed, everyone loves Johnson this year. It goes back to RB's 4-20 are basically the same to me.

 

[NamelessPimp]

I can't see Gates making it through a full season, and I'm in the "he lost a step boat." Not a fan of any of the other RB's you listed, everyone loves Johnson this year. It goes back to RB's 4-20 are basically the same to me.

I think Johnson does well but definitely not back to top 3 status. I doubt he stays motivated for a full season. I think McFadden can be the wild card in that mix though. I would rather have 10-12 big scoring games from McFadden than a guy playing 16 games with mid-range points. Plus if he's healthy, I think he's #1 RB next year. If he's healthy...

 

[K-O-B]

I think Johnson does well but definitely not back to top 3 status. I doubt he stays motivated for a full season. I think McFadden can be the wild card in that mix though. I would rather have 10-12 big scoring games from McFadden than a guy playing 16 games with mid-range points. Plus if he's healthy, I think he's #1 RB next year. If he's healthy...

What about Matthews compared with Johnson. I know you said you have Matthews at 4, but I have them swapped. I don't trust either though really, but Johnson has done something.

 

[NamelessPimp]

What about Matthews compared with Johnson. I know you said you have Matthews at 4, but I have them swapped. I don't trust either though really, but Johnson has done something.

Without Tolbert I feel as if Matthews would have been a great back. Take away the TDs Tolbert scored and even just give Matthews half of them and he would have been great. Let alone if he scored more than half of those TDs and even just half of Tolbert's yardage. I think Matthews will have the opportunity to score more than Johnson. CJ might have already done something, but unless Locker performs well, I see CJ having to do a lot more work than Matthews to score.

MJD is falling fast in my rankings. I think he'll bounce back from the holdout better than Johnson, but I think he'll hold out into the regular season. With the feeling he's being that underpaid may make him think to preserve his body for at least some time at least.

 

[Rich Spirit]

I have the #2 pick this year. I'm pretty sure im doing with McCoy, but im also looking at Rice.

What would you rank the top 3 RBs in a PPR league?