Differences between Obama and Romney Strategies in Swing States

[Alexander The Great]

The New York Times had a piece over the weekend on President Obama's focus on Colorado, where his campaign "has opened more than 50 field offices in Colorado, compared with about a dozen for his Republican rival, Mitt Romney."

This larger strategy comes up quite a bit and it extends well beyond Colorado. For Democrats, there's a broad realization that they'll never be able to keep up with Republicans' financial edge -- there are simply too many conservative billionaires who intend to buy the election for Romney -- but Dems hope to counter this with a superior "ground game."

To that end, political scientist Seth Masket, who's researched the use of field offices, has come up with some interesting observations and posted this chart over the weekend.

Masket relied on the Obama and Romney websites to "tally up the number of field offices in the 11 swing states." You'll notice that the Democrat has the advantage in every battleground state. (There's probably a clerical error for Indiana -- it's implausible Romney wouldn't have a single field office there.)

"I had figured earlier that these differences were a result of the fact that Obama just had an early head start while Romney was still slugging it out in the primaries, but by this late date, I'm not so sure," Masket wrote. "It seems more like the campaigns have different philosophies when it comes to deploying campaign resources, with the Romney folks believing they can win in the air and the Obama folks believing this will be won on the ground."

Right. I suppose it's possible that Romney/Ryan will open dozens of new field offices in the race's final nine weeks, but at this point, it seems pretty likely that Team Obama has simply placed a greater emphasis on this aspect of the campaign.

Does this kind of on-the-ground campaigning translate into votes? When Masket looked into this four years ago, he found a measurable impact (pdf), and in a close race, even small influences can make a difference.

I suspect the effect of television ads is still the most powerful weapon in a campaign's arsenal, but it's worth keeping in mind that just last week, the Washington Post reported that some Republican officials are "starting to fret a little bit" about the weakness of their ground game.

 

[Mr swag]

romney hasnt spent his money yet. obama has spent moslt all of it

romney is gonna hit hard and fast since we got 2 months left

 

[Alexander The Great]

romney hasnt spent his money yet. obama has spent moslt all of it

romney is gonna hit hard and fast since we got 2 months left

Romney's strategy is to buy the election. Obama has to get turnout to win. ground game gonna be key. however I will say, living in a swing state I am SICK of seeing all these damn ads. most of them are Pro Romney Super pac ads.

 

[mamba]

Romney's strategy is to buy the election. Obama has to get turnout to win. ground game gonna be key. however I will say, living in a swing state I am SICK of seeing all these damn ads. most of them are Pro Romney Super pac ads.

You haven't seen anything, yet. Like dude above said, Team Romney hasn't really spent any money, yet. Not to mention those shady Super PACs with Karl Rove's fingerprints on them. Team Romney is sittin' on a lot of cash. But, Rove's Super PACs may be sittin' on even more!

Next week, Team Romney will begin spending tons of money in the battleground states. They'll also spend money in "blue" states just to make Obama react.

It's the same strategy Team Obama used against McCain in 2008. The more money you have, the more you can spread around.

 

[Jello Biafra]

You haven't seen anything, yet. Like dude above said, Team Romney hasn't really spent any money, yet. Not to mention those shady Super PACs with Karl Rove's fingerprints on them. Team Romney is sittin' on a lot of cash. But, Rove's Super PACs may be sittin' on even more!

Next week, Team Romney will begin spending tons of money in the battleground states. They'll also spend money in "blue" states just to make Obama react.

It's the same strategy Team Obama used against McCain in 2008. The more money you have, the more you can spread around.

Yep, and the tactic of spending in blue states is going to be the biggest pain in the ass for the Obama team because it will force them to spend money and resources in areas they really shouldn't have to.

 

[FAH1223]

Yep, and the tactic of spending in blue states is going to be the biggest pain in the ass for the Obama team because it will force them to spend money and resources in areas they really shouldn't have to.

Obama is gonna lose brehs

Thats my President for the next 100 days

 

[kermit da hustla]

obama has spent moslt all of it

 

[kermit da hustla]

You haven't seen anything, yet. Like dude above said, Team Romney hasn't really spent any money, yet. Not to mention those shady Super PACs with Karl Rove's fingerprints on them. Team Romney is sittin' on a lot of cash. But, Rove's Super PACs may be sittin' on even more!

Next week, Team Romney will begin spending tons of money in the battleground states. They'll also spend money in "blue" states just to make Obama react.

It's the same strategy Team Obama used against McCain in 2008. The more money you have, the more you can spread around.

do you all know that obama has actually raised more money than romney? where is this myth of a money imbalance coming from? oh, right, the republican party.

 

[Luchini]

I think Obama still has a good chance. On the ground campaigning is always better than in the air campaigning

 

[mamba]

do you all know that obama has actually raised more money than romney? where is this myth of a money imbalance coming from? oh, right, the republican party.

Yes. The official campaign war chest. Like dude said above, Team Obama has burned through a lot of their cash. Romney wasn't able to spend much of his until he became the official nominee.

What you don't understand is the money Romney's Super PACs are sitting on! Karl Rove and crew have and are raising crazy cash. Probably 3X the amount of Romney's official campaign chest!

Just as Romney and his Super PACs carpet bombed Gingrich, Santorum, Perry and Cain, they will do the same to Obama.

It remains to be seen if it'll work.

But, please believe they are ferocious. Remember how quickly they disposed of Cain and Perry? LOL!

 

[mamba]

I think Obama still has a good chance. On the ground campaigning is always better than in the air campaigning

Tell that to Cain, Perry, Gingrich and Santorum!

 

[Jesus]

Obama is gonna lose brehs

Thats my President for the next 100 days

Team Obama fukk Romney and the doubters.

 

[Good Guy Guevara]

Yep, and the tactic of spending in blue states is going to be the biggest pain in the ass for the Obama team because it will force them to spend money and resources in areas they really shouldn't have to.

Please inform us what blue states are suddenly up for grabs. I swear you nikkas just make shyt up just to sound smart.

 

[mamba]

Please inform us what blue states are suddenly up for grabs. I swear you nikkas just make shyt up just to sound smart.

I'd say Nevada, Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin would be the "blue" states Team Romney would attack and force Team Obama to spend money in states they have to win.

Of course, Team Romney going to spend a tremendous amount in Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Florida.

But, they have enough money to force Team Obama's hand in a few shaky "blue" states.

 

[StatUS]

If Romney wins Virginia, Michigan, and Florida he takes it.

But the likelihood of that happening is slim.