Revisiting Carmelo Anthony Deal
As the New York Knicks face the Nuggets tonight in their first trip to Denver since the two teams collaborated with the Minnesota Timberwolves on the 13-player trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to Gotham, both teams find themselves in a better position than they were in when the trade was completed a little more than two years ago.
Despite their injury woes and recent slump, the Knicks are contenders in the East. And the Nuggets, winners of their past nine games, are the hottest team in the West. In different ways, both franchises can trace their success to the win-win trade they made.
How Denver Won the Trade
For the Nuggets, the results of the Anthony trade just keep getting better. As Benjamin Hochman reported in the Denver Post, 10 of the 15 players on the team's roster can be traced to the trade one way or another. Realistically, the Nuggets got six current players in exchange for Anthony, Chauncey Billups and the filler they sent to New York: starters Danilo Gallinari and Kosta Koufos, and reserves Wilson Chandler, Timofey Mozgov, Andre Miller and Jordan Hamilton (the latter two acquired from Portland in exchange for Raymond Felton, the other player the Knicks sent).
Check out the contributions of players involved in the trade on both sides, as measured by my wins above replacement metric:
LOOKING BACK AT THE DEAL
Player 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Total
Danilo Gallinari 1.2 4.2 5.8 11.3
Wilson Chandler 0.1 -0.5 0.6 0.1
Kosta Koufos 0.4 2.9 3.8 7.1
Timofey Mozgov 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
Raymond Felton 1.2 - - 1.2
Andre Miller - 1.7 1.7 3.4
Jordan Hamilton - 0.5 1.2 1.7
Denver Total 2.8 8.9 13.2 25.0
Carmelo Anthony 4.1 8.4 7.3 19.8
Chauncey Billups 2.6 0.0 0.0 2.6
Anthony Carter 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
Shelden Williams 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
New York Total 7.4 8.4 7.3 23.0
Surprisingly, New York actually saw more immediate benefit from the trade than Denver did, thanks to the addition of both Anthony and Billups. The Nuggets' incredible run to finish the 2010-11 season before running into the Oklahoma City Thunder in the opening round of the playoffs was really more about existing players like Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson stepping into larger roles than the impact of the newcomers.
With the Knicks waiving Billups via the amnesty provision, Denver's six-pack of players caught up to Anthony alone last season. And so far in 2012-13, the group has been far more productive. The Nuggets have proven the exception to the NBA axiom that the team getting the best player in a deal usually wins; they got so much talent in return for Anthony, headlined by a quality starter in Gallinari, who has provided nearly 80 percent of Anthony's value during a campaign that has seen him make good on his obvious potential.
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The other key to the trade for Denver was a player considered a throw-in at the time. While the Nuggets fought to get Mozgov from New York, it's the other 7-footer they acquired -- Koufos, who came from Minnesota largely for cap purposes -- who has become an anchor in the middle. Koufos, coming off a career-high 22 points and 10 rebounds Monday at Phoenix, is averaging 13.2 points and 10.6 rebounds per 40 minutes while shooting better than 60 percent from the field. At $3 million a year through 2014-15, Koufos is one of the league's best bargains.
The final piece for Denver is Chandler, who missed nearly all of last season because he went to China during the lockout and suffered a hip injury that required surgery shortly after his return. Finally healthy, Chandler is demonstrating why the Nuggets signed him to a five-year, $32 million deal as a restricted free agent last spring. Coming off the bench at both forward spots, Chandler is averaging 13.2 points and shooting 46.9 percent from 3-point range since the All-Star break. Denver is 21-7 this season with him in the lineup.
How New York Won the Trade
The problem with assigning a winner and a loser to trades is that it ignores the possibility that two teams with differing goals both can come out ahead. Such is the case with the Nuggets and Knicks. While a deep, balanced roster has made Denver difficult to beat playing a fast pace at altitude, a star-focused approach is more appropriate for New York. After striking out on the biggest names on the market in summer 2010, the Knicks needed a centerpiece to complement Amar'e Stoudemire. Anthony has provided just that.
There are a couple of reasons why the WARP comparison is insufficient to evaluate New York's end of the deal. One is the opportunity provided by clearing Billups off the books just after the lockout. That gave the Knicks enough cap space to sign Tyson Chandler, who has provided 16.8 WARP in nearly two seasons in New York. (Note that 2011-12 WARP figures are prorated to a full 82-game schedule.)
Together, Anthony and Chandler make more than all six Nuggets acquired in the trade. Of course, that's not a major problem for the deep-pocketed Knicks, another difference between the two teams. New York has been able to go well into the luxury tax to surround Anthony with role players, including Felton, who returned to the Knicks in a sign-and-trade deal last summer. (Conversely, one of the players New York got in the Anthony trade, Corey Brewer, now comes off the bench for the Nuggets.) The lure of playing in New York also has helped the Knicks fill out their roster. They signed ex-Denver guard J.R. Smith, a New Jersey native, on the cheap.
There are limitations to New York's strategy. In large part, the Knicks are built with aging role players, making the injuries suffered by veteran big men Marcus Camby and Rasheed Wallace and Jason Kidd's shooting slump somewhat inevitable during the course of an 82-game season. But compared to where New York was two seasons ago -- fighting just to get to the playoffs for the first time in seven years and hoping to lure a superstar at some point in the future -- it's hard to argue with where the Knicks are now.
If New York suffers, it's largely in comparison to Denver. The Nuggets had enough talent on hand to be positioned well, no matter what they did with Anthony. Getting such a good haul in return only enhanced their prospects. In the past two-plus seasons, Denver has won at a .635 clip, better than Anthony's last 2½ years with the Nuggets (.629) and good for sixth in the NBA in that span. The Knicks have won 56.5 percent of their games since the trade, which ranks 11th.
The perception of Denver and New York this season is shaped by the way the two teams started. As the Knicks were winning 14 of their first 18 games behind hot 3-point shooting, the Nuggets were suffering against a road-heavy slate. Through Dec. 6, New York had a 4½-game edge in the standings. Denver has made that up entirely and stands three games ahead of the Knicks (one in the loss column).
Unfortunately for the Nuggets, there's one trade they can't make with New York -- conferences. While the Knicks lead the Indiana Pacers by percentage points for second in the East, Denver is stuck in fifth in the West. As hot as they've been, the Nuggets haven't made up any ground on the Memphis Grizzlies, who also are 9-1 in their past 10 games. So unless the Los Angeles Clippers stumble, Denver will have to go on the road in the opening round. As a result, the Nuggets might come up empty in the playoffs again. If that happens, don't blame the Anthony trade.
