Rose fits a new role for Chicago
No NBA player enters the 2014-15 season with a wider range of possible outcomes than
Derrick Rose. Have Rose's two FIBA performances in Spain shed any light on what may happen? Not really -- and how could they? Nevertheless, Rose's complementary role on the loaded Team USA squad could be a forerunner version of the Rose we're going to get in what the Bulls hope will be his first healthy season in four years.
As you may already know, Rose has played in just 50 games, including the playoffs, over the last three NBA seasons. That's just 50 of 237 games (21 percent) of Chicago's regular and postseason games during that span. Both numbers are significant, because they mean not only has Rose's career trajectory been thrown askew, but his teammates have gotten used to playing without him.
As with most teams, the Bulls' roster has seen a lot of churning during Rose's long convalescence, but rotation players
Joakim Noah,
Taj Gibson,
Jimmy Butler and
Kirk Hinrich have all played nearly two complete seasons together, sans Rose. Second-year wing
Tony Snell and veteran
Mike Dunleavy have barely played with Rose. And it goes without saying that Rose has never played with Bulls newcomers
Pau Gasol,
Doug McDermott,
Nikola Mirotic,
Aaron Brooks and
Cameron Bairstow.
All of this makes Rose perhaps the most difficult player in the league to project.
SCHOENE is pessimistic, pegging Rose for 4.1 WARP and a .437 individual winning percentage. It's not just a hedge against another season of limited minutes. It's also track record. Let's not forget Rose did get 10 games in last season, during which he was 0.5 wins below replacement level, with a .332 winning percentage. Sure, Rose was still working his way back into shape, and at the time he was hurt, it appeared he was starting to come around. But his numbers were what his numbers were, and that's what gets loaded into a projection system.
The best news for the Bulls is that their revamped roster looks very good on paper. SCHOENE has Chicago forecast in the mid-50s in wins, and as the clear No. 2 team in the East behind Cleveland. That's with Rose's pessimistic projection. A full season of a more efficient Rose can only boost the Bulls' fortunes. Yet not only is another 17-WARP, MVP-level Rose unlikely, it might not even be a good idea.
Before putting some numbers to this notion, let's consider the style of play we've seen from Rose so far on Team USA. The results have been mixed -- one solid, easy performance in the romp over Finland, followed by a relatively empty stat line against the matchup zone of Turkey -- and in the grand scheme of things, these numbers tell us next to nothing. His role, on the other hand, may be informative.
On offense, Rose has been used to help hurry the ball down the floor to get Team USA into its offense. When he's seen an opening to cross over an isolated defender, or to attack a lane abandoned by opposing bigs, he's shown the explosion required to get to the basket, or to set up a teammate. His shot-making is rusty and passing erratic, but he's gotten to the line and even gotten one of those two-handed, dunk-on-the-way-up finishes that recalls his otherworldly athleticism. But more often than not, Rose has initiated the offense and then watched his talented teammates go to work. On defense, Rose has been expending a lot of energy in the scheme designed by Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau, and has been effective at harassing opposing point guards trying to get their own attacks under way.
The Bulls, talented as they are, certainly don't have the weapons of Team USA, so Rose isn't going to spend nearly so many possessions spotting up on the perimeter during the NBA season. However, whereas the pre-Rose-injury Bulls were designed to complement his talents, and the roster built to fully leverage his style of play, the new Bulls have more built-in versatility. Some of that comes from the newcomers, but a lot of it also comes from the evolutionary turns made by Noah, Gibson and Butler in Rose's absence. The combination of these factors should allow Thibodeau to field a diverse attack that allows Rose to pick his spots similar to what he's been doing for Team USA, albeit to a lesser extent.
Consider the accompanying chart noting the key offensive metrics for the top nine players on the Bulls in 2010-11 -- Rose's MVP season -- and the projected top nine for 2014-15, listed with their results from last season along with projections for Rose and the newcomers.
Less Rose is fine with Bulls
2010-11USGORTGAST%2013-14USGORTGAST%
Rose32.4115.39.5Rose*29.6110.38.7
Noah16.9110.73.1Noah18.9110.67.1
Gibson16.9107.21.5Gibson23.2107.01.8
Deng21.0109.93.3Dunleavy17.2108.33.4
Boozer27.1109.33.6Gasol26.5108.44.7
Korver18.4110.83.5McDermott*24.6109.72.2
Brewer14.0106.53.6Butler17.0107.93.1
Watson21.5108.47.9Hinrich17.6107.76.3
Asik12.6107.11.5Mirotic*19.2109.22.5
Noah has taken on a greater role on offense without losing efficiency. The jump in assist rate is astonishing, though it'll go down this season not only because of Rose's return, but also due to the addition of Gasol, a great passing big man in his own right. Chicago now knows it can run its offense through Noah when needed, either when Rose sits or because of the particular matchup that's on the floor. This will mean that more than he ever did before, Rose will be able to initiate the offense and then spot up, where he can hopefully showcase the catch-and-shoot abilities he's been working on the last two years. It won't be a staple, but it's an option.
Gasol steps right into the role that Boozer filled in his initial Chicago season before his play declined, though there are differences in utility. Gasol is a better low-post option than Boozer, while offering much of the same face-up ability, and he's a better passer. There will be plenty of possessions that begin with Rose dumping the ball inside to Gasol. The trend continues when Gibson steps onto the floor, where he's added more than 6 percent of usage without a corresponding loss of efficiency, though on Chicago's new roster, Gibson can force fewer iffy jumpers. Dunleavy won't use as many possessions as Deng used to, but you can run plays for him, and he's a better floor spacer and passer.
Two other key differences in the rosters are due to the rookies. McDermott projects as a higher-usage version of Korver with more offensive utility. You can run McDermott off screens or spot him up in the same manner as Korver, but McDermott is better at putting the ball on the floor, and can also operate in the post. And Mirotic is the polar opposite of Asik as a reserve big -- he doesn't lock down the lane on defense, but scores inside and out in a variety of ways. Both of Chicago's rookies should provide plenty of possessions of high-efficiency offense, with or without Rose on the floor. With him, their catch-and-shoot abilities will be a perfect fit.
When we talk about the importance of Rose returning to "form," it's going to be tempting to compare the statistical benchmarks of the past and present. That won't be fair. Rose only needs to show that he can be the 17-WARP player who won all the hardware in 2011. He just won't need to be that player as often, because this time, he's got more around him with which to work. The end result could not only mean the best offense Chicago has had with Rose, but one that saves him from the wear and tear that's caused him to miss so much time the last three years.
