Democrats have a 30% chance of taking the House in 2018 Midterm Elections

[Booker T Garvey]

i've said it before, i'll say it again:

these riled up democrats on twitter and out here in the streets that are influencing the entire culture of the party don't actually vote.

these viral memes and clever hilarious ironic political tweets that some college freshman makes and get 80k retweets from celebs and political writers don't mean shyt when it comes to the poles

 

[FAH1223]

So the majority of people have less voice then the minority.

:cacmjpls:

I bumped up and read thru @Robbie3000's 2014 midterm thread. That was a historically low turnout election.

Turnout has to be high in the red districts that could be swung and you'd have to field candidates who can get those who don't vote to do so on a massive scale.

i've said it before, i'll say it again:

these riled up democrats on twitter and out here in the streets that are influencing the entire culture of the party don't actually vote.

these viral memes and clever hilarious ironic political tweets that some college freshman makes and get 80k retweets from celebs and political writers don't mean shyt when it comes to the polls

2016 taught us that very well. As far as I'm concerned, the GOP has so many inherent advantages to winning. Voter suppression. Unlimited corporare and oligarch money coming via SuperPACs and dark money networks. Gerrymandered districts.

And all of thse advantages only increased exponentially since 2009.

It's crazy how in 2008, we had John McCain take public money for his campaign...

 

[Scoop]

30% seems low.

I would take the over on that. I don't think Dems are worse off then a 45% chance right now to take the House.

Senate is a no-go for them.

 

[5n0man]

Democrats don't vote, they just bytch about shyt. Those numbers are believable

 

[FAH1223]

30% seems low.

I would take the over on that. I don't think Dems are worse off then a 45% chance right now to take the House.

Senate is a no-go for them.

Senate is most def a no go. Even if they won the majority in 2016, they'd have lost it next year. Too many seats to defend.

They'll keep most of their seats but I think 2 or so will be lost. There's strong incumbents even in the states that went Trump.

Best case is getting to 50 due to AZ and NV being toss ups

 

[Don Homer]

sounds about right

 

[Mr swag]

Dens gonna lose 3-5 seats in the senate which means Obamacare does in 2019

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

How many seats the Dems have to flip?

shyt Mitch McTurtle polling at 18% in his own state and district and that's cause Trump going in on him..

Dems might flip these seats by default because of low turn out by the repubs especially since they feel they are leaving Trump out to dry

 

[FAH1223]

How many seats the Dems have to flip?

shyt Mitch McTurtle polling at 18% in his own state and district and that's cause Trump going in on him..

Dems might flip these seats by default because of low turn out by the repubs especially since they feel they are leaving Trump out to dry

Dems have to win 24 seats.

If this was 10 years ago, it could be done. The Dems rode the coat tails of the anti-war movement in 2006 and took advantage of Bush's low approval ratings. That was a big year as the Senate also went blue sorta as Lieberman defeated the progressive (who beat him in the primary) in the general election as he ran independent

And Bernie became a Senator then too

 

[THE MACHINE]

How many seats the Dems have to flip?

shyt Mitch McTurtle polling at 18% in his own state and district and that's cause Trump going in on him..

Dems might flip these seats by default because of low turn out by the repubs especially since they feel they are leaving Trump out to dry

The problem with all of these polls, and specifically the approval rating polls, is it's just fodder for democrats to laugh and feel good about. None of them matter because even a republican that hates how Donald Trump is presiding will still vote republican. His approval rating could be 0% but if you ask a republican are they gonna flip and vote dem the answer would be "hell no". I just don't see enough Democrats engaged politically, just engaged emotionally. Our country is a conservative land. The populous might favor liberals but the map always tells a different story. Sad stuff

 

[CreepyMcCreeperson]

At this point, it's safe to say that GOP does identity politics through Trump's coded language. "Culture, values, history, etc" are all understood to be white. Even with people dying from heroin and opioids, white people are voting for their race, and Trump is their patron saint. Half the people who claim to hate him really voted for him. They lied. They view Democrats as being anti-white, and getting black folks mad over nothing, because they're fine with us suffering, they just don't want to hear about it.

That's why they hate Obama, and blame him for this "new racial tension". They've been trying to trick us into believing if you act a certain way, and achieve a certain level of success, that you will be immune to racism. Well, the Obamas were basically like, "Look, we're ivy league educated lawyers, and you can't get any higher than being president, and they still call us the n-word, so no black folks, you're not making it up in your head." That hurt white people's feelings. They say fukk our feelings, but we have to treat their feelings like precious jewels. I could go on, but then I'd be ranting.

 

[5n0man]

Dems might flip these seats by default because of low turn out by the repubs especially since they feel they are leaving Trump out to dry

Low turnout for Republicans

This doesn't happen.

 

[FaTaL]

2018 about to be disappointing unless a miracle happens

But I truly believe dems will finally show up, people are pissed

 

[FAH1223]

2018 about to be disappointing unless a miracle happens

But I truly believe dems will finally show up, people are pissed

But that's the issue. People will show up in places where it doesn't count.

 

[TLR Is Mental Poison]

Dens gonna lose 3-5 seats in the senate which means Obamacare does in 2019

GOP has the WH and Congress and couldn't get it done in either house... ACA aint goin nowhere cuhz, I put that on Ms Gladys