Barrett’s shooting slump
Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau has a habit stereotypical of most coaches. Ask him about a player going through a slump, and he’ll quickly remind the questioner that someone can play well without shooting well. But what’s going on with
RJ Barrett is not normal missing.
Barrett’s streak is bordering on historic, depending on how you define that word.
He’s shot 40 percent or worse while taking eight-or-more shots in 10 consecutive games, tying him for the seventh-longest streak in NBA history since 1946, according to Basketball-Reference.
Trevor Ariza and Kemba Walker, both of whom did this in 2014, are the only two active players with longer streaks. Alvin Williams had an 11-game streak in 2002, and three legends we all surely remember — Woody Sauldsberry, Slater Martin and Joe Graboski — all surpassed 10 games in 1958.
(What the heck was going on in 1958?! I know field-goal percentages were lower then, but this didn’t happen in 1956 or ’57 or ’59. Did Sputnik 3 annihilate everyone’s jumper?)
Ariza has the record with 16 straight games.
Yes, the markers (40 percent shooting or worse; eight or more field-goal attempts) are a tad arbitrary. But they still paint a picture: Barrett is missing shots at an alarming rate. He’s shooting 31 percent from the field and 21 percent from deep over these 10 games, which flipped the narrative just as he looked like he was getting ready to take over the NBA with breakout performances against the Bulls,
Pelicans and
Raptors, a streak that included a career-high 35-point night in New Orleans.
The shot selection hasn’t altered much, and he’s not forcing inorganic jumpers. They’re just not going in. The Knicks will bet that changes and chances are they’ll be right. But still, what a strange, strange stretch from a promising 21-year-old who looked like he was about to hit a new level just a few weeks ago.
Rim defense is back
Let’s move on to a positive. Even with
Nerlens Noel out for most of the season,
Mitchell Robinson sustaining various bang-ups that have removed him from the lineup and
Taj Gibson now dealing with his recent groin injury, the Knicks are once again the best team in the NBA defending near the basket.
Opponents are shooting only 56.9 percent at the rim, tops in the league by a mile, according to Cleaning The Glass, which eliminates garbage-time possessions.
“Defensive field-goal percentage is the big one to me,” Thibodeau said. “Guarding the paint and you got to get in and fire out and challenge the shot.”
So, amidst the injuries, who is there to credit? Gibson has deterred ballhandlers all season. There’s an argument he’s been their most valuable or at least their most consistent defender. Both he and Noel are allowing less than 50 percent shooting on layups and dunks they contest, placing each of them in the NBA’s top 10.
But there’s also Thibodeau’s philosophy, the same one that leaves him with one of the Knicks’ three conventional centers almost always on the floor. He builds his defenses from the inside out. New York often packs the paint. Defenders who line the perimeter are free to help off shooters once invaders infiltrate the middle, part of the reason this team is allowing so many good looks from 3.
Defensive flaws remain, though the Knicks have been stingier lately. Cleaning the Glass ranks them 17th in points allowed per possession. They may be swatting away layups and dunks, but they’re also giving up too many of them. The 3-point and transition defense have caused trouble.
Yet, they are accomplishing their top priority. Once opponents get to the hoop, they’ve been the league’s thriftiest group.
It all evens out
When defending the paint is a priority, that risks leaving the perimeter open. The Knicks have learned that lesson the hard way this season. The 3-point arc is often what’s killed their defense. But lately, at least their bad luck is starting to dissipate.
Remember during the early part of the season, when role players were bombarding the Knicks with a never-ending stream of 3-pointers?
Pat Connaughton,
Myles Turner and others approached career nights. Well, the expected has occurred over the past five games: teams are finally missing more unguarded 3s against them.
The Knicks have given up too many easy looks, but opponents also were shooting 42.6 percent on wide-open 3-pointers through the season’s first 12 games, according to Second Spectrum. That was the highest percentage in the league. It caught my attention right away as an inevitable and easy fix. Wide-open 3s are, by definition, wide open — meaning there is no way for a defense to guard them well. Usually, that percentage is bound to even out over the long haul.
That’s what has happened over the last five games.
Knicks opponents are shooting only 35.6 percent on wide-open 3s over that time, a significant drop. The Knicks are giving up fewer unguarded looks, too. They allowed the most wide-open 3s in the league over the season’s first 12 games.
They’ve struggled for other reasons. The offense isn’t as cohesive as it was in October. Barrett can’t make a shot.
Evan Fournier can’t find a way to play late in games. And the defense is imperfect. But Knicks opponents were due for this regression, and it’s happened over the last week and a half.
(Photo of Julius Randle: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)