COVID-19 Pandemic (Coronavirus)

Azul

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The Comfort Zone
:dwillhuh: @ Trump telling a reporter "You'll never make it". Reporter had a legit question but of course Trump had to make it about himself.

This moron told a White House reporter that he would never make it but that’s one of the most prestigious gigs in journalism.

:dwillhuh:

That reporter should have fired back. It’s another example of him just spouting off at the mouth.

The head of the White House Correspondents Association at that
 

Pacni99a12

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I was thinking about something the other day:
Shutting down the NBA was the first "domino" that led to all major corporations starting to shut down the next day.
Its possible that Adam Silver actually saved more lives in the US with that than any other single person during this crisis.
Bruh that's a good point
 
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Thread by @DrEricDing: Thread - INCUBATION TIME LONGER THAN 14 days. This is a serious problem that I can’t stress enough because we based all our quarantine on t…
Thread - INCUBATION TIME LONGER THAN 14 days. ⚠️This is a serious problem that I can’t stress enough because we based all our quarantine on this magical 14 day number. But many people have longer incubation periods than 14 days- this is problem. #COVID19
2) For weeks, the WHO and CDC have been saying that while half of those #COVID19 exposed get sick within about five days, they recommend 14-day quarantines for anyone knowingly exposed to the virus to prevent its spread...
3) ...That quarantine period was extrapolated from an analysis published in January of a small sample of patients in Wuhan, China, which suggested that 95% of those #COVID19 infected would show symptoms within 12 and a half days. But...
4) But new studies indicate that it takes some people much longer to develop symptoms after they’re exposed – spurring some scientists to raise an alarm that 14 days not enough. Some public health experts are calling for longer quarantine periods, especially low testing countries

5) A team of scientists from five universities in China and Canada released a study in mid-March that found that nearly 1 in 8 patients had incubation times longer than 14 days, leading them to question whether current quarantine recommendations are optimal. #COVID19
6) “As the outbreak is fast-moving in the world, based on this analysis we recommended that an extension of adults’ quarantine period to 17 or 21 days could be more effective,” they wrote. #COVID19
7) That team found that of 2,015 #COVID19 cases they studied across China – sample that included 100 children – 233 patients had incubation periods longer than the 14-day quarantine period recommended, or nearly 12%. The range of incubation days they saw ranged from 0 to 33 days.
8) “If you have 10 people in the city get #COVID19, maybe not (a) big deal,” said one of the researchers. But, he said, if you have 10,000 people infected, you will have 1,200 people missed by the quarantine. “So that is a disaster.”
9) Another study found that for every 10,000 exposed #COVID19, 101 would develop symptoms after a 14-day quarantine. Reuters reported on one such case in late Feb, that of a 70-year-old man in China’s Hubei Province who did not show symptoms until 27 days after he was infected!
10) “Because the U.S. has such, such low testing rates and such poor coverage of the community in terms of identifying new cases that crop up, I would take a much more conservative approach, as in increasing the quarantine duration in the U.S.,” said Eric Feigl-Ding. #COVID19
11) “I would advocate we need a much more stringent quarantine because it is like a perimeter around someone who may have #COVID19. But if you don’t have a good testing for someone that escapes this quarantine detection, then you better have a comprehensive, longer quarantine.”
12) “If your goal is to catch 99 out of 100 people, maybe 14 days of quarantine is OK,” Feigl-Ding said in response to the new findings. “One person may slip by and infect other people. So the question is, are you going to tolerate that kind of risk?” #COVID19
13) “...This study should make every public health leader ask what is an acceptable risk tolerance for cases slipping out. I think our risk tolerance should be more than 1 in 100. It should potentially be 1 in 10,000.” #COVID19
14) Feigl-Ding said researchers need to study whether the incubation period varies by age, gender and underlying health conditions.
“We should have solved this problem two months ago,” Feigl-Ding said. #COVID19
15) “The point of quarantines at this point is not necessarily to catch every single sick person,” said Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University and a co-author of the Annals of Internal Medicine study. #COVID19
16) He said the cost of taking nurses or firefighters out of the community during the quarantine period has to be balanced with the risk that they might develop COVID-19 and spread it.
“It’s not for us to say what that balance should be,” he said. #COVID19
17) Sandy Adler Killen is an emergency room nurse at a Northern California hospital that, as of Sunday, had handled about 10 confirmed COVID-19 patients. “We do not have the capability” to quarantine exposed health care workers for more than two weeks. #COVID19
18) “If we had numerous staff members that had to be quarantined for long periods of time, it’s just not tenable.” Longer quarantines carry financial implications as well, Bollinger points out. “Those people that you’re quarantining need to be paid,” she said. #COVID19
19) Felicia Goodrum, an immunobiologist, emphasized that vast majority of those exposed present symptoms w/in 14 days of known exposure. “Does that leave outliers on tail end of that curve?” “Yes, absolutely. So would it be safer to quarantine for 16 days? Absolutely.” #COVID19
20) given the irregular incubation period, it is critical that people be tested for #COVID19 on final day of quarantines. “That would be the way, especially in a high-risk situation where you’re talking about HCW going back to work or, say, a caregiver at a nursing home”
21) The risks of the looser #COVID19 CDC recommendations were on clear display early in the U.S. outbreak when, in late February, the agency released from isolation a woman who had been evacuated from Wuhan. When she arrived in the U.S...
22) ...she was taken to a health care facility near Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland and was in isolation for a few weeks after testing positive for #COVID19. But after testing negative twice, she was released and visited a hotel and mall while a third test was pending.
23) That test came back positive. By that time, she had been out in the community for 12 hours. San Antonio Mayor @Ron_Nirenberg called the patient’s release a federal “screw-up,” declared a public health emergency and sued the federal government. #COVID19
24) “I would encourage the federal administration to not wash its hands of the responsibility to protect the public,” Mayor @Ron_Nirenberg said. #COVID19
25) Recent studies from China & Europe showed that people can shed #COVID19 virus well after recovery. One study- researchers found cases shedding the virus for a median of 20 days after they got sick, half of them were shedding for even longer periods – the longest was 37 days
26) These new studies are very preliminary, but they have caught the attention of doctors dealing with #COVID19 patients and struggling to make sense of glaring difference between the recommendations of WHO and CDC. “This is a big contention currently,” said Dr. Frederick Davis.
27) among biggest hardships of getting sick has been not knowing whether she had #COVID19, whether she may have been infectious & exposed people before she felt ill, or how long might be contagious now once feels better. “The uncertainty has really been the most difficult part”
28) BOTTOMLINE: 14 day quarantine might not be long enough because of really long duration. Virus shedding duration even after recovery. ➡️ Thus, we need to be careful from a precaution principle. Maybe increase quarantine time to 16 or 17 days to be more certain. #COVID19


:ufdup:

Knock it off with the flashing lights
 

eXodus

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Yo, I feel good about where we are with this!


1. March through June

Regional NPIs(non-pharmaceutical interventions)

basically what China did and what S. Korea is doing now. Travel restriction, aggressive testing, contact tracing, quarantines, and social distancing. This will help mitigate the problem that we couldn’t contain. If we can control the pace in which people get this (because it’s so transmissive that people absolutely will get it) it will slow the exponential curve and prevent our medical systems from getting overwhelmed. Also, decreases the likelihood of medical professionals getting exposed. 3 months of this buys us time.


of course April is going to be a bad month but a lot of states did a decent job with social distancing in March.

A lot didn’t but that’s why April is gonna be brutal as far as deaths in NY, hospitalisations and then deaths in a number of other states but the “curve” was definitely flattened. It got too out of control to do contract tracing but we did ramp up testing. April will be crucial and I think May as well as far as social distancing.


2. July-Dec
Implementation of effective treatment methods

Ease up on the NPIs some so the economy doesn’t complete go into a standstill but rely on better treatment methods. As we better understand the disease that SARS cov 2 causes, we will hopefully establish consistent effective treatment methods to lower fatality rates in critical cases and prevent serious cases from becoming critical cases. People still will die but if it looks closer to S. Korea’s numbers of a 0.6% case fatality rate and as we develop better treatment and understand the diseases pathology maybe this even goes lower to around 0.4-0.5%. This Can’t happen without step one though because if healthcare workers are getting sick and are overwhelmed our healthcare system won’t have the capacity to treat serious/critical patients. We are already having success with Zinc, hydroxychloroquine, and the antibiotic azithromycin.



We gotta social distancing up in April and May, to buy science time. I think if Covid-19 is truly a blood disease so to speak, having that understanding will allow scientists/physicians to create more targeted approaches for treatment.

At first we were throwing shyt at the would and some things would stick (hydroxychloroquine). Now hopefully there will be more rhyme and reason to why those drugs might have had some effectiveness and a better understanding on how to use them.

If hydroxychloroquine is combined zinc and used early on to disrupt whatever the fukk Covid-19 is doing within red blood cells to remove iron and interrupt O2 and CO2 transfer, and we gain a better understanding of that.. those drugs would show much more efficacy as well as other drugs or methods that can maybe do something similar more effectively.

When that combo is used too late based on that theory, the O2 starved organs (mainly lungs) are in too poor of a condition to recover. Once it gets to intubation it’s too late.

I think in April/May our medical genius throughout the world will figure this out and if medical systems aren’t overwhelmed.. by July.. the mortality in confirmed cases could reflect S. Korea’s early numbers of 0.6-0.7 FOR NEW INFECTIONS. (I think it’s like 1.8 now)
The total case mortality rate for infections will still be high because of the initial number of high deaths and uncounted cases which shrinks the denominator in the case mortality equation, making for the ridiculous case mortality numbers we see now (12% in Italy)
3. Jan 2021-
Mass production of a vetted vaccine

hopefully a vaccine is on the verge. Between the vaccine, regions developing herd immunity and effective treatments.. we limit the number of cases and lower the case mortality rate to around .3% across the board.

there’s a lot that can go wrong along the way however.
lots of promising stuff coming out of the vaccine space with Pittsburgh U, Bill Gates building manufacturing for the top 7 candidates etc. Still early to tell but optimistically late first/early 2nd quarter if all goes right!
 
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