Why Experts Think You’ll Need a COVID-19 Booster Shot in the Future
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Lea Suzuki/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images
Pfizer made headlines last month when its chief financial officer said the company would look to raise COVID-19 vaccine prices after the pandemic wanes. The company is doubling down on that stance, and it now believes annual vaccinations are "increasingly likely."
Pfizer believes there will be demand for shots even after the current crisis. Citing variant concerns, Pfizer believes it’s "increasingly likely that an annual revaccination is going to take place” and that those revaccinations will be needed “for the foreseeable future,” the CFO said.
A recent survey of epidemiologists, virologists, and infectious disease specialists found that many worry new mutations of the coronavirus could render current vaccines useless within a year.
The survey was conducted by the People’s Vaccine Alliance. It polled 77 experts from top academic institutions from 28 countries.
Nearly a third of the experts surveyed said that we have 9 months or less before the current vaccines are rendered ineffective.
Fewer than 1 in 8 said the vaccines would remain effective, despite mutations.
And 88 percent said that low vaccine coverage in many countries increases the chances for vaccine-resistant mutations to occur.
“This is a big concern, especially since we are still behind on our vaccine efforts,” said Dr. Purvi Parikh, an allergist and immunologist at NYU Langone Health. “We need there to be 70 to 80 percent of the population vaccinated before we can let our guard down with variants emerging. The virus can still replicate and mutate.”
As of April 5, 167 million vaccine doses have been administered in the United States, which translates to 32 percent of the population.
The consensus of several experts interviewed last week, though, was that perhaps as soon as next year, dealing with COVID-19 will become more like dealing with the flu: It may require a booster shot, but the disease will no longer be a raging pandemic, and we won't have to have such a large-scale, urgent vaccine campaign.
A future with boosters
Experts say COVID-19 likely will not be a case like the measles, in which a vaccine was created that eventually eradicated the disease in America. That’s because the measles virus did not mutate.
Instead, a better comparison for what COVID-19 will look like in the future is the flu, a disease that occasionally produces worrisome variants that cause outbreaks. Millions of people routinely get a flu shot each year, and those vaccinations are formulated to combat the latest mutations to the virus.
Virginia Ruef, a regional pharmacy officer for Mount Carmel Health System, said those boosters are important, even if they are not 100% effective.
“You hear from year to year, `Oh, the flu shots aren’t that effective this year,’” Ruef said. “But you still are getting an exposure to a variant, and your body remembers that. So years later, if you had four or five years of flu shots, a variant may emerge that is similar and you already have some immunity built up.”
“We anticipate that this is not going to go away, but we envision it becoming endemic,” said Dr. L.J. Tan, chief strategy officer for the Immunization Action Coalition, a nonprofit organization based in St. Paul, Minnesota, that helps educate health care providers on vaccines.
“The concept of COVID-19 ‘booster shots’ after initial vaccination is a reality we should accept,” added Dr. Robert Glatter, emergency physician at Lenox Hill Hospital in New York.
“With the inevitable rise of variants, we will need to continually update COVID vaccinations such that an annual booster shot will be required in the foreseeable future,” he said.
mutations over timeTrusted Source, causing concern about the effectiveness of vaccines against these variants.
When the virus replicates it may change slightly, resulting in a mutation. Not all mutations are bad or have any effect on transmissibility or disease severity.
However, sometimes these mutations can allow the virus to evade certain types of antibodies.
“The B. 1.1.7 is the most concerning of all the variants circulating in the U.S. at the time,” Glatter said. “It is not only more transmissible but also more [deadly] and represents at least a third of all current cases in the U.S.”
According to a studyTrusted Source published in Nature, this variant is associated with a 55 percent greater risk of death compared with other variants.
“COVID vaccine development continues to progress,” said Dr. Miriam Smith, chief of infectious disease at Long Island Jewish Forest Hills in New York. “The evolution of virus mutations in a population at risk for infection is being addressed with reformulated or additional dosing of vaccines to enhance the host immune response.”
[paste:font size="5"]
How can we stay protected against coronavirus variants?
Despite increased efforts to vaccinate the population around the world, there are still many countries, including the United States, that are behind.
U.S. cases started to rise again in March after weeks of steep declines. The increase in cases arrived as states started to reopen and end mask mandates, and as new, transmissible variants started to spread more widely.
“The only pathway to avoiding annual vaccinations or booster shots could be a ‘universal’ coronavirus vaccine candidate that would provide coverage against all current and future strains,” Glatter said.
“But the ultimate goal would be to produce a vaccine that could work on any coronavirus serving to protect the population from all past and future coronaviruses,” he said.
Beyond that, the most important thing we can do is keep staying the course. This includes limiting nonessential travel, mask wearing, handwashing, and physical distancing.
“The situation in Europe, especially in France and Italy with ongoing lockdowns, should serve as a reminder that we must continue to be vigilant about mask wearing and distancing,” Glatter said.
“While the CDC has indicated that it is safe for fully vaccinated travelers to travel, provided they continue to wear masks and practice social distancing, we still need to be vigilant as variants continue to be a concern in the U.S. Caution is still the word,” he said.
Finally, getting the vaccine would be another important step.
Even if booster shots are required in the future, getting the maximum number of people vaccinated now can help dramatically.
“I urge everyone to get the vaccine,” Parikh said. “Get any of them as soon as possible so that we don’t have to worry about variants and the boosters. Getting vaccinated will only help this part of the puzzle.”
Why Experts Think You'll Need a COVID-19 Booster Shot in the Future
Lea Suzuki/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images
- A recent survey of epidemiologists, virologists, and infectious disease specialists found that many worry new mutations of the coronavirus could render current vaccines useless within a year.
- Pharma manufacturers are currently in the process of developing booster shots to address specific variants.
- As of April 5, 167 million vaccine doses have been administered in the United States.
Pfizer made headlines last month when its chief financial officer said the company would look to raise COVID-19 vaccine prices after the pandemic wanes. The company is doubling down on that stance, and it now believes annual vaccinations are "increasingly likely."
Pfizer believes there will be demand for shots even after the current crisis. Citing variant concerns, Pfizer believes it’s "increasingly likely that an annual revaccination is going to take place” and that those revaccinations will be needed “for the foreseeable future,” the CFO said.
A recent survey of epidemiologists, virologists, and infectious disease specialists found that many worry new mutations of the coronavirus could render current vaccines useless within a year.
The survey was conducted by the People’s Vaccine Alliance. It polled 77 experts from top academic institutions from 28 countries.
Nearly a third of the experts surveyed said that we have 9 months or less before the current vaccines are rendered ineffective.
Fewer than 1 in 8 said the vaccines would remain effective, despite mutations.
And 88 percent said that low vaccine coverage in many countries increases the chances for vaccine-resistant mutations to occur.
“This is a big concern, especially since we are still behind on our vaccine efforts,” said Dr. Purvi Parikh, an allergist and immunologist at NYU Langone Health. “We need there to be 70 to 80 percent of the population vaccinated before we can let our guard down with variants emerging. The virus can still replicate and mutate.”
As of April 5, 167 million vaccine doses have been administered in the United States, which translates to 32 percent of the population.
The consensus of several experts interviewed last week, though, was that perhaps as soon as next year, dealing with COVID-19 will become more like dealing with the flu: It may require a booster shot, but the disease will no longer be a raging pandemic, and we won't have to have such a large-scale, urgent vaccine campaign.
A future with boosters
Experts say COVID-19 likely will not be a case like the measles, in which a vaccine was created that eventually eradicated the disease in America. That’s because the measles virus did not mutate.
Instead, a better comparison for what COVID-19 will look like in the future is the flu, a disease that occasionally produces worrisome variants that cause outbreaks. Millions of people routinely get a flu shot each year, and those vaccinations are formulated to combat the latest mutations to the virus.
Virginia Ruef, a regional pharmacy officer for Mount Carmel Health System, said those boosters are important, even if they are not 100% effective.
“You hear from year to year, `Oh, the flu shots aren’t that effective this year,’” Ruef said. “But you still are getting an exposure to a variant, and your body remembers that. So years later, if you had four or five years of flu shots, a variant may emerge that is similar and you already have some immunity built up.”
“We anticipate that this is not going to go away, but we envision it becoming endemic,” said Dr. L.J. Tan, chief strategy officer for the Immunization Action Coalition, a nonprofit organization based in St. Paul, Minnesota, that helps educate health care providers on vaccines.
“The concept of COVID-19 ‘booster shots’ after initial vaccination is a reality we should accept,” added Dr. Robert Glatter, emergency physician at Lenox Hill Hospital in New York.
“With the inevitable rise of variants, we will need to continually update COVID vaccinations such that an annual booster shot will be required in the foreseeable future,” he said.
mutations over timeTrusted Source, causing concern about the effectiveness of vaccines against these variants.
When the virus replicates it may change slightly, resulting in a mutation. Not all mutations are bad or have any effect on transmissibility or disease severity.
However, sometimes these mutations can allow the virus to evade certain types of antibodies.
“The B. 1.1.7 is the most concerning of all the variants circulating in the U.S. at the time,” Glatter said. “It is not only more transmissible but also more [deadly] and represents at least a third of all current cases in the U.S.”
According to a studyTrusted Source published in Nature, this variant is associated with a 55 percent greater risk of death compared with other variants.
“COVID vaccine development continues to progress,” said Dr. Miriam Smith, chief of infectious disease at Long Island Jewish Forest Hills in New York. “The evolution of virus mutations in a population at risk for infection is being addressed with reformulated or additional dosing of vaccines to enhance the host immune response.”
[paste:font size="5"]
How can we stay protected against coronavirus variants?
Despite increased efforts to vaccinate the population around the world, there are still many countries, including the United States, that are behind.
U.S. cases started to rise again in March after weeks of steep declines. The increase in cases arrived as states started to reopen and end mask mandates, and as new, transmissible variants started to spread more widely.
“The only pathway to avoiding annual vaccinations or booster shots could be a ‘universal’ coronavirus vaccine candidate that would provide coverage against all current and future strains,” Glatter said.
“But the ultimate goal would be to produce a vaccine that could work on any coronavirus serving to protect the population from all past and future coronaviruses,” he said.
Beyond that, the most important thing we can do is keep staying the course. This includes limiting nonessential travel, mask wearing, handwashing, and physical distancing.
“The situation in Europe, especially in France and Italy with ongoing lockdowns, should serve as a reminder that we must continue to be vigilant about mask wearing and distancing,” Glatter said.
“While the CDC has indicated that it is safe for fully vaccinated travelers to travel, provided they continue to wear masks and practice social distancing, we still need to be vigilant as variants continue to be a concern in the U.S. Caution is still the word,” he said.
Finally, getting the vaccine would be another important step.
Even if booster shots are required in the future, getting the maximum number of people vaccinated now can help dramatically.
“I urge everyone to get the vaccine,” Parikh said. “Get any of them as soon as possible so that we don’t have to worry about variants and the boosters. Getting vaccinated will only help this part of the puzzle.”
Why Experts Think You'll Need a COVID-19 Booster Shot in the Future
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