Tested a whole town in italy, found 50-75% asymptomatic
Coronavirus: "Il 50-75% dei casi a Vo' sono asintomatici. Una formidabile fonte di contagio"
A doctor's thoughts on these asymptomatic #s
Coronavirus: "Il 50-75% dei casi a Vo' sono asintomatici. Una formidabile fonte di contagio"
A doctor's thoughts on these asymptomatic #s
Yeah, it's clear this is how South Korea and China beat it by (in south korea's case) catching the asymptomatic carriers and (in China's case) quarantining literally everyone under punishment of jail time.
If you don't do that, you don't beat the virus. It beats you.
Thankfully, this means that the mortality rate is probably like 0.5% like SK's numbers are, but that means we are absolutely still fukked from a hospital and ICU standpoint. It also means worse case numbers aren't likely to happen at all, since those were based on numbers around the 2-3% mortality and 15% hospitalization/5% ICU numbers.
What I mean for the non-statistical people, is the #'s projections for the US you are seeing about 30% nationwide infection, 80%mild/20% hospital/5% ICU 2-3% deaths ACTUALLY probably resembles 95%mild/<5%hospitalization/<1%ICU/0.5% mortality.
HOWEVER, it still means the "sick" people numbers, aka the actual case volume we'll see in the US since we're only testing sick people like Italy will absolutely be 80/20, 5/2-3% etc. We'll probably have an inevitable shytload of asymptomatic carriers in the 10-39 range like they saw in SK, but we won't ever "see" those people, if that makes sense.
Hospitals/ICUs/Metros are still fukked, but numbers get slightly less terrifying for worst case scenarios.