Coronavirus Thread: Worldwide Pandemic

blotter

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Tested a whole town in italy, found 50-75% asymptomatic

Coronavirus: "Il 50-75% dei casi a Vo' sono asintomatici. Una formidabile fonte di contagio"

A doctor's thoughts on these asymptomatic #s

Yeah, it's clear this is how South Korea and China beat it by (in south korea's case) catching the asymptomatic carriers and (in China's case) quarantining literally everyone under punishment of jail time.

If you don't do that, you don't beat the virus. It beats you.

Thankfully, this means that the mortality rate is probably like 0.5% like SK's numbers are, but that means we are absolutely still fukked from a hospital and ICU standpoint. It also means worse case numbers aren't likely to happen at all, since those were based on numbers around the 2-3% mortality and 15% hospitalization/5% ICU numbers.

What I mean for the non-statistical people, is the #'s projections for the US you are seeing about 30% nationwide infection, 80%mild/20% hospital/5% ICU 2-3% deaths ACTUALLY probably resembles 95%mild/<5%hospitalization/<1%ICU/0.5% mortality.

HOWEVER, it still means the "sick" people numbers, aka the actual case volume we'll see in the US since we're only testing sick people like Italy will absolutely be 80/20, 5/2-3% etc. We'll probably have an inevitable shytload of asymptomatic carriers in the 10-39 range like they saw in SK, but we won't ever "see" those people, if that makes sense.

Hospitals/ICUs/Metros are still fukked, but numbers get slightly less terrifying for worst case scenarios.
 

Frump

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Tom Hanks and his wife have already been let out of Austrailia and he’s doing ok and he’s around 70

I’m not saying we shouldn’t shut shyt down we should to get it under control and it is dangerous to older and sick people but gun to my head when we look back will this be some sort of huge killer that was worth shutting things down for months and destroying the economy for and making people lose their jobs? Probably not but I see why we have to do it as a precaution and I also see why if too many people have it at one time it can overwhelm the hospitals and would F a lot of people over..

I think if we quarantined people for a month or two we could get it under control and see Things clearer...plus get to the point where if the next wave of people got it the number wouldn’t be nearly as high and the ones who have bad cases would be able to get proper treatment. But I don’t think we’re gonna do that we’re gonna procrastinate and things won’t be close to normal till July/August the earliest
 

Hood Critic

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Tom Hanks and his wife have already been let out of Austrailia and he’s doing ok and he’s around 70

I’m not saying we shouldn’t shut shyt down we should to get it under control and it is dangerous to older and sick people but gun to my head when we look back will this be some sort of huge killer that was worth shutting things down for months and destroying the economy for and making people lose their jobs? Probably not but I see why we have to do it as a precaution and I also see why if too many people have it at one time it can overwhelm the hospitals and would F a lot of people over..

I think if we quarantined people for a month or two we could get it under control and see Things clearer...plus get to the point where if the next wave of people got it the number wouldn’t be nearly as high and the ones who have bad cases would be able to get proper treatment. But I don’t think we’re gonna do that we’re gonna procrastinate and things won’t be close to normal till July/August the earliest
Base the seriousness of a virus on the level of treatment provided to multi-millionaires brehs.
 

blotter

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Because of the length we're looking at the emphasis is on s.d. not total quarantine, because people will not be able to sustain that
 

Professor Emeritus

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Base the seriousness of a virus on the level of treatment provided to multi-millionaires brehs.

My guess is that he didn't even require treatment. Most people don't.

However, even if only 10% of folk get intensive care and 1% die, those would be horrific numbers for a disease that spreads as easily as the flu.
 

Never Broke Again

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Coronavirus In Pennsylvania: All Fine Wine And Good Spirits Stores To Close Statewide

For anyone unfamiliar, wine and spirits is the ony way to buy liquor in Pennsylvania. As far as I know, this is the first state to do this

Within it, the most populous counties are mobilizing to the extreme, lockdown is probably coming for the Philly and Pittsburgh counties within the next 2 days. Gov. is more proactive than most states so far. Their cases are behind the national avg with strong hospitals and they have a competent governor.


So, go... Pennsylvania :skip:
 
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