Coronavirus Thread: Worldwide Pandemic
- Thread starter 88m3
- Start date
BK The Great
Veteran
My cousin called to tell me my father is in the hospital with COVID. He's been living without taking the virus very seriously, traveling back and forth between Mexico and the States.
He was in Mexico for Christmas and New Years, and now he's in a hospital over there. My cousin didn't give me any details on his condition.
I'm hoping he pulls through, but the man was incredibly reckless.
He always, more or less, did whatever he wanted regardless of what others told him, so in a way, I don't feel very bad. If he succumbs to the virus, at least he went out doing what he loved? I don't fukking know, man.
Damn sorry to hear that, hope he gets well soon.
88m3
Fast Money & Foreign Objects
DJ Paul's Arm
Veteran
88m3
Fast Money & Foreign Objects
So I read something that contradicted what I thought about higher contagiousness.
Basically, even though a more contagious virus would most likely be less deadly, the fact that it is more contagious would result in a higher body count anyway
Because contagions are exponential by nature, the increase in infected people would increase the death count faster than the lesser death rate would have lowered it 
So all in all, the new variants are bad news in that regard because more contagious variants increase the R0 of a virus which means herd immunity is pushed back even further. Last time I read about R0 of Covid 19, it was said to be at 2.5 which meant we needed 60% of the population with antibodies to have herd immunity. If new variants pushes the R0 up by 0.5, we would need to be at least at 66% for herd immunity.
Basically, even though a more contagious virus would most likely be less deadly, the fact that it is more contagious would result in a higher body count anyway
Because contagions are exponential by nature, the increase in infected people would increase the death count faster than the lesser death rate would have lowered it So all in all, the new variants are bad news in that regard because more contagious variants increase the R0 of a virus which means herd immunity is pushed back even further. Last time I read about R0 of Covid 19, it was said to be at 2.5 which meant we needed 60% of the population with antibodies to have herd immunity. If new variants pushes the R0 up by 0.5, we would need to be at least at 66% for herd immunity.
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So I read something that contradicted what I thought about higher contagiousness.
Basically, even though a more contagious virus would most likely be less deadly, the fact that it is more contagious would result in a higher body count anyway
So all in all, the new variants are bad news in that regard because more contagious variants increase the R0 of a virus which means herd immunity is pushed back even further. Last time I read about R0 of Covid 19, it was said to be at 2.5 which meant we needed 60% of the population with antibodies to have herd immunity. If new variants pushes the R0 up by 0.5, we would need to be at least at 66% for herd immunity.
Fauci and others (someone from the UK team) were suggesting recently that the HI threshold could have been pushed up to almost 90% by the new variants
Fauci says herd immunity could require nearly 90% to get coronavirus vaccine
BK The Great
Veteran
90% would put Covid contagiousness at smallpox levels
i had hoped we would get out of this by summer 2021 but looks like it could be a wrap for the whole year 
@NY's #1 Draft Pick just got my second dose. nikkas at work scaring me talmbout shytty symptoms afterward 
Dillah810
Flat Girther
The 1918 flu epidemic, which covid-19 is often compared to, lasted 3 years. We're only just beginning year 2 of the covid-19 epidemic, so if this one goes like the 1918 epidemic, then we have at least another whole year to deal with this.90% would put Covid contagiousness at smallpox levels