Coronavirus Thread: Worldwide Pandemic

merklman

merklman

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TENET said:
because it is a change on the spike protein "key" (for the ACE2/CD147 "lock") for entry into cells. "the" vaccines target the spike protein.

N501Y means an amino-acid has changed from N to Y ar the 501'st position.

the 70% quoted is just statistical analysis of the population disease numbers and flow.

now they have to test the virus itself.

it could be nothing BUT

i. it's like "due process" for the virus, with the first question being is there "prima facie evidence"; to which they have decided 'yes'.

ii. mutations can be starting points for further mutations.

-

results pending:

US army scientists examine new UK coronavirus variant to see if it might be resistant to vaccine
By Elizabeth Cohen, CNN Senior Medical Correspondent

Updated 0153 GMT (0953 HKT) December 21, 2020

"Scientists at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research expect to know in the next few days if there's a concern that the coronavirus vaccines might not work against a mutated variant of the virus that's rapidly spreading in parts of England, according to the institute's top vaccine researcher.

While there's always a worry that a vaccine won't work if a virus mutates significantly, the Walter Reed scientists still expect the vaccine will be effective against this new variant, said Dr. Nelson Michael, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research."
US army scientists examine new UK coronavirus variant to see if it might be resistant to vaccine - CNN


"[UK] Scientists in race to prove whether vaccine effective against new Covid strain
Government scientists are in a race to prove that vaccines can fend off the new strain of Covid-19 as experts warned the variant could render jabs “less effective”.

Scientists at the Porton Down facility in Wiltshire are growing samples of the new strain before adding serum taken from vaccinated patients to test the response. The results are expected in a “couple of weeks,” Whitehall sources said."
Scientists in race to prove whether vaccine effective against new Covid strain
Click to expand...

A couple of weeks? if theyre only screening the harvested virus against patient serum - that's a couple of days :jbhmm:

In any case, i fully expect the vaccine (particularly the Oxford one) to still be effective against the new strain
 
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merklman said:
A couple of weeks? if theyre only screening the harvested virus against patient serum - that's a couple of days :jbhmm:
Click to expand...

Maybe because they are looking for a statistically certain "yes/no/less/more" rather than just a few isolated results. Less/more implying "degree" and they might want to have answers to questions along those lines. This might involved making several-to-many tests.

From what I understand the vaccine makes the body generate both neutralizing antibodies and aglutinating antibodies so you might want to additionally test those independently.

Further these timescales might include trying to understand observed effects. So not only what is happening but why biochemically.

In line with this I would expect snippets/indicators and projections to start coming out after a few days with the full comprehensive report to be delayed until much later. as it is the UK after all. Possibly later than a few weeks even - unless there are no issues whatsoever.
 
merklman

merklman

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TENET said:
Maybe because they are looking for a statistically certain "yes/no/less/more" rather than just a few isolated results. Less/more implying "degree" and they might want to have answers to questions along those lines. This might involved making several-to-many tests.

From what I understand the vaccine makes the body generate both neutralizing antibodies and aglutinating antibodies so you might want to additionally test those independently.

Further these timescales might include trying to understand observed effects. So not only what is happening but why biochemically.

In line with this I would expect snippets/indicators and projections to start coming out after a few days with the full comprehensive report to be delayed until much later. as it is the UK after all. Possibly later than a few weeks even - unless there are no issues whatsoever.
Click to expand...

Vaccines will/should generate a polyclonal antibody response, ie. a cocktail of different antibodies directed against the virus/antigen. If effective, part of that response should include neutralising antibodies. I work in therapeutic drug research so an antibody response is less than ideal, particularly Neutralising abs - though transient/non specific antibodies which don't neutralise, sometimes sustain drugs for longer in circulation. Flip all of that when dealing with a vaccine Ab response :bryan:. Secondly, if the "new" strain is only a change in 1 AA on the spike protein i would be massively shocked that the IgG vaccine response would be blunted

Also, my surprise in why this is taking so long, is because this "new" strain has been kicking around since September:snoop: - at this point i should know not to underestimate how incompetent a govt run lab is. Honestly it's not too much labwork. Earlier this year, we developed and validated an Anti-covid Antibody assay, took about 3 weeks. Would have had it done earlier, hold ups were sourcing the spike protein and panel of positive sera to confirm validation
 
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merklman said:
Vaccines will/should generate a polyclonal antibody response, ie. a cocktail of different antibodies directed against the virus/antigen. If effective, part of that response should include neutralising antibodies. I work in therapeutic drug research so an antibody response is less than ideal, particularly Neutralising abs - though transient/non specific antibodies which don't neutralise, sometimes sustain drugs for longer in circulation. Flip all of that when dealing with a vaccine Ab response :bryan:. Secondly, if the "new" strain is only a change in 1 AA on the spike protein i would be massively shocked that the IgG vaccine response would be blunted

Also, my surprise in why this is taking so long, is because this "new" strain has been kicking around since September:snoop: - at this point i should know not to underestimate how incompetent a govt run lab is. Honestly it's not too much labwork. Earlier this year, we developed and validated an Anti-covid Antibody assay, took about 3 weeks. Would have had it done earlier, hold ups were sourcing the spike protein and panel of positive sera to confirm validation
Click to expand...

Apparently more than 400 different genomes have been already spotted in the UK. I think they waited for the abnormal-infection growth red-flag before examining it closer, for reasons of their own. Maybe they will explain why later, They problem will have to address that if this problem becomes much bigger.
Home - COG-UK Consortium

It's the UK though, so while it has its share of intelligent individuals, it is very weak when it comes to organisation and management.

There is more than one change. The N501Y is the change in the binding zone.

"This new SARS-CoV-2 virus variant is referred to in the UK as SARS-CoV-2 VUI 202012/01. It is defined by multiple spike protein mutations (deletion 69-70, deletion 144, N501Y, A570D, D614G, P681H, T716I, S982A, D1118H) present as well as mutations in other genomic regions [8]. One of the mutations (N501Y) is located within the receptor binding domain."
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...le-spike-protein-mutations-United-Kingdom.pdf

also from this doc.

"The unusually high number of spike protein mutations, other genomic properties of the variant, and the high sequencing coverage in the UK suggest that the variant has not emerged through gradual accumulation of mutations in the UK. It is also unlikely that the variant could have arisen through selection pressure from ongoing vaccination programmes as the observed increase does not match the timing of such activities. One possible explanation for the emergence of the variant is prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection in a single patient, potentially with reduced immunocompetence, similar to what has previously been described [17,18]. Such prolonged infection can lead to accumulation of immune escape mutations at an elevated rate. Another possible explanation could be adaptation processes in a virus that occur in a different susceptible animal species and is then transmitted back to humans from the animal hosts. This led to the emergence of a variant with multiple spike protein mutations (including RBD mutation Y453F and deletion 69-70) in Denmark during transmission among mink [19]. Several different spike protein mutations associated with mink have also been described in the Netherlands [20]. The UK has reported to ECDC and the WHO Regional Office for Europe that there is no clear epidemiological link to animals for VUI 202012/01, so this explanation is less likely for this variant [1]."

Mink are about to bring humanity down :picard:.




BTW I do not work in medicine.
 
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