Collapse of traditional child-bearing and marriage globally in charts

[DrBanneker]

One of the things I have found interesting in discussions about marriage, kids out of wedlock, etc. amongst many people, even professionals, is how people have looked at the Black community's issues with births outside of marriage and lack of marriage as a unique cultural failing that is somehow easily righted by attitudes, shaming, etc.

I don't think people realize how global this is becoming. I noticed this living abroad and later on when I did research on marriage demographics. Globally, in developed and middle income countries, excluding East Asia, Greece & Israel, kids are hard core increasingly being born out of wedlock since the 2000s and especially the 2008 GFC. Also, marriage rates for young women are collapsing, even in traditional Asian societies. The big difference is unmarried women in Asia don't typically have kids (which craters their fertility but that's another discussion). Also in Europe there are more two-parent "partner" homes where both parents raise the kids without ever bothering to get married. US tends to skew more towards single parent homes.

I guess you can view this as comforting if you thought Black people had a unique pathology leading to all this. But also it is discomforting since there are clearly larger social and economic forces at play that may be out of our control. That makes it harder to fix. If you are interested in more on this from the top view type in "second demographic transition" in Google.

Granted, our numbers are still at the worse end of the spectrum but we have peaked and have trended flat in marriage and kids born out of wedlock while everyone else is on the upward trend. How do you think this changes your ideas on the causes and solutions to our problems?

Hong Kong chart

 

[MBwithadream]

Bump

 

[phcitywarrior]

OP, not that I don't disagree with you, but I'd like to know where these stats came from. From what I know personally about Chile, I question that 70%+ of children being born out of wedlock statistic.

I have some other thoughts, but being a non-ADOS, I don't think it's my place to speak on that.

 

[DrBanneker]

OP, not that I don't disagree with you, but I'd like to know where these stats came from. From what I know personally about Chile, I question that 70%+ of children being born out of wedlock statistic.

I have some other thoughts, but being a non-ADOS, I don't think it's my place to speak on that.

The out of wedlock stats come from the OECD.

Pull up the time series on OECD Family Database - OECD

The images themselves are from an article about this topic from Yale

 

[DrBanneker]

I have some other thoughts, but being a non-ADOS, I don't think it's my place to speak on that.

Why not? Black unmarried births have oscillated basically between 67% and 72% since the late 1990s. That's not slander or shaming, it's just facts. As long as you don't demean the people, you can discuss facts.

Not something to be proud of or normalize (too late for that though) but the issue is for the longest I wondered whether AA/ADOS had some weird cultural kink that made us accept this but now I am not as sure.

 

[NZA]

rising income inequality and job insecurity has an impact on mating habits | blacks in america are a canary in the coal mine for some other groups

 

[Kenny West]

Christian values ​

 

[Wild self]

The institution of marriage is on the verge of extinction outside of wealthy people

 

[ogc163]

A traditionalist lifestyle isn't cheap, kids are expensive, marriage is expensive, and the psychological utility isn't necessarily that high for poor and working-class folks. Been reading several books by conservatives complaining about this, and they generally don't want to help pay for a traditionalist lifestyle. For example, conservative Oren Cass was on Ezra Kleins show recently and went into his traditionalist shtick, and when pushed on the govt financially helping people raise their kids, he argued that people could afford families, they just didn't want to make the tradeoffs. But this argument ignores that the tradeoffs can be substantial and the downside risks of making the wrong decisions are different for the working class and poor people. Thus, you have to help people feel there is a greater margin of safety than is currently the case.

 

[phcitywarrior]

The out of wedlock stats come from the OECD.

Thanks. Took a look in depth at the Yale article with the OECD charts. Quite surprising, however, I think it'd be better if the chart mentioned of the OOW children, how many were born in a cohabitation. Side note, those charts aren't the best visualizations.

Why not? Black unmarried births have oscillated basically between 67% and 72% since the late 1990s. That's not slander or shaming, it's just facts. As long as you don't demean the people, you can discuss facts.

Not something to be proud of or normalize (too late for that though) but the issue is for the longest I wondered whether AA/ADOS had some weird cultural kink that made us accept this but now I am not as sure.

I've tried to have some civil discourse on "ADOS" issues here but it never ends well so I just side step the convo all together, even if we are discussing numbers.

What I do find interesting on the OECD chart is, save Eastern Europe and a few LATAM countries, the countries with higher OOW children do seem to be those states with much more robust social safety nets. Essentially the government playing daddy.

But to be honest, none of this is really surprising. As countries in the OECD have secularized and gradually moved away from values that were often rooted in Christian principles, this is one of the effects.

It's a terrible trend to be honest. Every statistic has shown children born to wedded couples fair better than those that aren't.

 

[Payday23]

Oh well

 

[Starman]

How do you think this changes your ideas on the causes and solutions to our problems?

It doesn't change much for me. I still think sexual liberation is the primary culprit. The rise in secularism follows. Unless we address those, this doesn't change.

 

[FAH1223]

Here in the DC Area, man there's so many single women in their 30s.

In the Muslim community its no different either though in sub communities esp South Asian, Arabs, African Americans I feel you'll see people get married earlier... in others its later

 

[DrBanneker]

I've tried to have some civil discourse on "ADOS" issues here but it never ends well so I just side step the convo all together, even if we are discussing numbers.

Honestly, this is one of the trends on the Coli that has irritated me the most. I actually fought about it in the beginning but just chill in the cut now. My folks were more of a pan-africanist mindset when I was growing up so I never felt the need for competition or resentment with West Indians or Africans.

 

[Kenny West]

A traditionalist lifestyle isn't cheap, kids are expensive, marriage is expensive, and the psychological utility isn't necessarily that high for poor and working-class folks. Been reading several books by conservatives complaining about this, and they generally don't want to help pay for a traditionalist lifestyle. For example, conservative Oren Cass was on Ezra Kleins show recently and went into his traditionalist shtick, and when pushed on the govt financially helping people raise their kids, he argued that people could afford families, they just didn't want to make the tradeoffs. But this argument ignores that the tradeoffs can be substantial and the downside risks of making the wrong decisions are different for the working class and poor people. Thus, you have to help people feel there is a greater margin of safety than is currently the case.

What are you basing any of this of off? Poorer cultures have maintained marriage and family through much harder times. Marriage itself being expensive is a societal construct. People living together in family or communial settings have it much better off than those alone. And its a proven fact kids from 2 parent homes are more stable

The Great Depression didnt see fathers abandoning their children en masse no matter how badly it got financially.

Yall want to keep dancing around the point. Its time to come to terms: the feminists were wrong. They dont have the answers and never did. Their priority was always agency which was needed for sufferage but is not a communial mindset. Everbody is "doing whats best for me"


Women influenced by american western culture dont maintain long relationships as long, I've observed this irl. And while they are forward thinking in agency for women they've never considered what role they want from men. They have the same expectations and ideas of men as their grandmas but with a longer leash for themselves. Just "support women", " Believe women", "give women more opportunities" yet we've never had a forward thinking societal role for males.

Men have the same societal expectations as men from the pre depression days: job, marriage, house and family. Inflation? Bad economy? Bad job market? Deal with it because jeff bezos exists and no queen deserves to settle even he isnt going to date her. America wants to keep producing a bunch of Archie Bunkers to somehow maintain relationships with City Girls and its not working. Make girls to be "independent" bitter misandrists who resent most things the word " Wife" represents while conditoning boys to be head of family units for women who dont care about family. Brilliant plan America

As lucrative as it is to put marriage and divorce in a cycle, I doubt this countryr has incentive to change

I can already hear the capes in the distance, so whoever is reading this and is preparing to type the word "incel", just remember I get more p*ssy than you and if your rebuttal isnt on the topic you aren't worth my time