China getting their ass kicked in that regard.
I don't believe China will attack Taiwan, and I believe their intellectual leaders are pointing to Russia's fukk up in Ukraine as proof positive that military aggression won't benefit them. Invading Taiwan would require the largest amphibious military landing since D-Day. Taiwan's military is more developed than Ukraine's was at the start of that conflict, they have more weapons today than Ukraine did, and the island is full of people who will defend it to death. Add in the military support that the US would pump in, not to mention the US intel support agents that are already on the ground there. No reason to believe China could pull that off nor would they want to.
China can take Taiwan without firing a shot, solely through demographics and propaganda. Eventually a generation will arise there that is closer to mainland China than the west and they'll open the gates, figuratively. I think the US understand this, which is why we've been so aggressive about moving semiconductor stuff here.