Playoffs: Scouting Blazers-Grizzlies
QUESTION 1: Whose injuries are a bigger concern?
Elhassan: The season-ending loss of
Wesley Matthews (Achilles tendon) was a huge blow for the Blazers, as he was not only their premier perimeter defender but a major offensive weapon as an elite 3-point shooter, a post threat and a surprisingly decent creator out of the pick-and-roll. Many looked at Matthews as the heart and soul of the team, a leader in the locker room and a source of toughness. The loss of Matthews by itself put Portland's postseason success in extreme jeopardy, and unfortunately the injuries kept mounting down the final stretch, as
Nicolas Batum,
Arron Afflalo,
Chris Kaman and
C.J. McCollum all suffered ailments.
Doolittle: I gotta go with the Blazers here. It's bad enough the way they've played since Matthews tore his Achilles tendon. At the time, Portland was 22 games over .500, ranked 10th on offense and third on defense. Since then, the Blazers have been two games under .500. They've actually risen to sixth on offense but have tumbled to 24th on defense. Now the wing rotation has fallen into additional peril with injuries to Afflalo and Batum, both of whom may not be ready to begin the postseason. Memphis has been resting the gimpy ankle of
Mike Conley, but he should be ready to play by Game 1. Meanwhile,
Marc Gasol looked healthy enough on Wednesday, pouring in 33 points in a must-win game against Indiana.
Tony Allen is ailing and
Zach Randolph has an old body, but the MASH alert still goes to Portland.
QUESTION 2: Who wins the battle of frontcourts (LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez vs. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph)?
Elhassan: It's a battle of Portland's extreme size and length up front and Memphis' interior brawn. Aldridge's ability from midrange makes for an uncomfortable matchup for either one of the Grizz's bigs, as they have to come out of the paint to guard him; when they do, Aldridge has done a much better job this season of putting the ball on the floor to improve his shot location rather than just firing over the contesting defender. It also helps that Lopez is a reliable spot-up shooter from short midrange (particularly along the baseline), as he serves as a release valve when the defense has collapsed on a post-up or dribble-drive penetration. On the other end, perhaps no big tandem has perfected the high-low as well as Gasol and Randolph, with Gasol operating from the high post and finding the ducking-in Randolph, who can still use his girth to create space and separation from longer defenders. Despite the obvious weight differences, I give the slightest edge to the Blazers' frontcourt for its ability to contest and help defensively with its length.
Doolittle: Exhibit 1: bottom-line performance; Gasol and Randolph combined for 19.1 WARP this season compared to 11.5 for Aldridge and Lopez. OK, there were playing-time issues there, but even if you go with winning percentage weighted for minutes, the Grizz bigs hold a decisive .599 to .543 edge. Exhibit 2: impact; Gasol (plus-4.04), Aldridge (plus-4.43) and Randolph (plus-4.76) are clustered together in Real Plus-Minus, while Lopez lags at plus-1.48. Stylistically, you might wonder if Aldridge's face-up game might give Memphis' interior duo some problems, but in nine games against Memphis over the past three seasons, he's shot just over 43 percent while averaging 22 points. Pretty average numbers by his standards. In a comparison of tandems, Memphis wins this one.
QUESTION 3: Portland is heavily reliant on points from beyond the arc, while Memphis leads the league in points in the paint. Which team is better equipped to survive going away from its strengths?
Elhassan: Memphis by far, for the simple fact that its most effective interior scorers are healthy and playing, as opposed to the Blazers' missing wings. As far as going away from strengths, the Grizzlies' lack of consistency from the perimeter, especially since the injuries to Conley and
Courtney Lee, has been a cause for concern over the second half of the season, while the Blazers still have the penetration of
Damian Lillard and the Aldridge midrange/post-up options to supplement their offensive diet. Overall, however, Memphis has no need to deviate from its strengths.
Doolittle: The Grizzlies' defensive scheme is more apt to force the Blazers out of their comfort zone than vice versa. I believe this even though the Blazers led the league in defensive shot attempt efficiency. That is regardless of their success in defending shots (the Portland defense started from a foundation of getting opponents to shoot from the least efficient zones on the court). They don't give up 3s, either above the break or the corners. The problem is that Memphis doesn't shoot many 3s, and many of Portland's sterling defensive metrics were posted before Matthews went down. With Lopez, Aldridge and Kaman, the Blazers do a solid job of defending the paint, but it's Portland's recent play that has me concerned. In a vacuum, I'd go the other way with this topic, as Memphis' packed-in defense can sometimes give up too many 3s.
Predictions
Elhassan: Grizzlies in six. It's unrealistic for anyone to expect Portland to overcome the repeated losses of core players to injury. If they had happened any earlier in the season, there's a good chance Portland would have missed the playoffs.
Doolittle: Grizzlies in five. Portland is not only battered, but its injuries have led to some pretty demoralizing performances over the past month, when the Blazers went 7-11. Memphis has certainly battled health woes as well, but at least the Grizzlies hung in down the stretch and beat some pretty good teams. And let's not lose track of the fact that Memphis is the de facto higher seed in the series, as it owns the home-court advantage despite being the 5-seed to Portland's 4. Winning a division isn't all it's cracked up to be. Also, Memphis won all four meetings between these teams in the regular season.
Don't be surprised if ...
Elhassan: We don't see this Blazers team (as current constituted) ever again. Aldridge, Lopez and Matthews are all unrestricted free agents, and
Steve Blake and Afflalo hold player options. It really is a shame that after finally addressing the bench concerns of a season ago, Portland had to endure the catastrophic injuries this campaign.
Doolittle: Portland could have a couple of young players who break out of the shadows a little bit. McCollum and
Meyers Leonard have both performed well of late while being thrust into larger roles. McCollum has proved his worth as a bench scorer, and with Portland short on wings he should get some big minutes with Lillard early in the series. Meanwhile, Leonard has reached legit stretch-5 status. After making three 3s in his first two seasons, he made 47 this year on 42 percent accuracy.
BPI projection
Fifty-six percent chance the Grizzlies win the series. Most likely series outcome is Grizzlies in seven.