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Cam Newton Has Clear Statistical Case For MVP - TPS
There’s a general buzz about how Cam Newton is the quarterback of an undefeated NFL team, but that doesn’t mean he deserves to be MVP. And, to be fair, when the Miami Dolphins went undefeated in 1972, it was a Washington Redskin, Larry Brown, who was honored with the title. The narrative goes that Newton is riding his defense and unspectacular passer ratings to his MVP. The problem with that narrative is it requires cherry-picking to get there.
Let’s set aside everything else for a moment and consider one fact that is virtually undeniable: If Cam Newton went down, this would not even be a playoff team. Being the difference between watching the postseason at home and potentially going undefeated is a pretty hefty bonus in the “Value” column, but perhaps you want more objective evidence. Maybe you’re buying into this hype about the defense being what is winning his games.
IS THE DEFENSE WINNING MORE THAN THE OTHER CANDIDATES?
First, let’s look at how the defense has performed when Newton wins compared to what the other two top candidates, Tom Brady of the New England Patriots and Carson Palmer of the Arizona Cardinals are getting from theirs:
Well, there’s a pretty big blow to the narrative. It’s not just a distortion of the truth; it’s a factual misrepresentation of it. The Panthers have surrendered more points in their wins than the Patriots or Cardinals have, but where’s the conversation about how Brady and Palmer are just getting by on their defense? And remember, this is just a comparison of what they have in wins–of which Newton has two more of at present.
Factually, Newton has to do more to win than his counterparts do. Strike one for the narrative.
NEWTON’S PASSING NUMBERS AREN’T MVP WORTHY
This argument is a classic case of begging the question, in that it assumes a premise that a quarterback’s true value is always represented by his passing numbers. That, however, is not always the case, particularly when you’re talking about a non-traditional, dual-threat quarterback like Newton. And it’s not like quarterback rating is the quintessential way of measuring the status of a signal caller either. It’s a way, and it has its strengths, but it’s not the only way.
When you factor in both his running and passing, Newton has factored into his team’s success just as much as Brady and Palmer have. First here’s a look at Touchdowns:
And here’s a look at yards:
Newton has accounted for 81.4 percent of his team’s touchdowns, either through the air or on the ground. Compare that with Brady (78.3 percent) or Palmer (74.4 percent). Furthermore, in spite of the fact that, by design, the Cardinals and Patriots are much more pass-oriented offenses, the percentage of yards coming from Newton (71.66 percent) is comparable with Palmer’s (72.45 percent) and Brady’s (78.34 percent). When you look at the three candidates based on what they offer their teams combining what they do on the ground with what they do through the air, there isn’t quite the chasm of separation.
At a minimum, Newton has nearly as much to do with getting his team down the field and more than the other two with getting them into the end zone.
Narrative, strike two.
ALL RECEIVERS AREN’T EQUAL
The other problem with comparing passing numbers is it assumes that the guys catching the ball have nothing to do with the end result. And people want to give all the credit to Greg Olsen, as though, he’s suddenly the best tight-end in the league. Yet, Rob Gronkowski doesn’t seem to be a reason to take away votes from Brady.
For starters, not all receivers are as likely to catch the ball. And here, let’s focus on each QB’s top three receivers based on targets. For the Patriots, that means Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman and Gronkowski. For the Cardinals, that’s Larry Fitzgerald, Josh Brown and Michael Floyd. And for the Panthers, it’s Olsen, Tedd Gin Jr. and Devin Funchess. First, look how much more likely the Panthers’ trio are to drop passes:
Furthermore, the career accomplishments of the Panthers’ trio coming in was far short of what the other two tiros have accomplished:
Cam Newton has had far less accomplished receivers who are dropping the ball more–literally. Narrative strike three. You’re out.
Objectively speaking, Newton is every bit as much in the MVP conversation. He’s doing as much, with less, and leading his teams to more wins in the process.
If people have a reason for him not being MVP, maybe it’s not football related.
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