Dreamestorical
Pro
the Boko haram situation in Nigeria is extremely complex. this is an organization that has been brewing since about 2006/2007. They have a lot of sympathizers within the northern muslim populace not only in Nigeria but in neighboring countries like Cameroon, Burkina faso, chad, Niger, Libya and Mali.(they have an endless supply of troops) On top of that the organisation has infiltrated Nigerias military, secret service and government. We have had former governors, senators, past and present generals in the army, and even former heads of state that have been tied to the sect or are accused of having ties to the sect.
At the moment 9 Nigerian army Generals (Yes GENERALS) are being investigated for supplying weapons to boko haram. Insurgency: Army Generals Face Questioning For Illegal Arms Deal – www.channelstv.com
Imagine if lets say you had a similar situation like boko haram in america. That means you have a terrorist organisation lets say in the south fighting to establish their own rule of law and you have past heads of states that are in on it on top of that the some CIA and FBI agents, former and present generals in the army, senators and certain parts of the populace were in on it. How would america deal with such a situation?
That is basically Nigeria at the moment. Nigeria cannot crush boko haram with force. Nigeria cannot achieve peace with force. Other methods have to be used. Boko haram is in too deep, their influence is to strong.
Now why I was saying its all a distraction is because there is no doubt that there are groups in Nigeria that want to use the boko haram situation to destabilize the current government. They want the general populace to lose faith in the government. The whole chibok kidnap was sadly a ploy to distract the government. Its something I hate to type but those girls are being used as pawns. They dont mind if these abductions and attacks insight a civil war or revolution they just want the present administration out. (why do you think boko harams attacks have increased after all the international media attention?)
Jonathan has tried to use force to quell this insurgency but all it has done is alienate the northern citizenry. So another method he has been trying to use is to speed up development in the country. And the one way is providing electricity to the masses. The amount of money the present Nigerian government is investing in things like power stations, transmission lines, alternative forms of energy e.t.c is by far the largest Nigeria has ever invested in its history. And a lot of the investments are MANDATED by Jonathan to be completed before 2015. As you can see Jonathan knows its a race against time.
Plus can you believe in all of Nigerias history we have never had constant electricity. It is something Nigeria has never been able to achieve.
The country is practically functioning in the midst of gross darkness. Jonathan being able to provide light to the masses will bring a ray of hope to Nigerians. Both Northerners and southerners.
Bringing light especially to the north will be the greatest weapon against the insurgency. It will unite the country and people will finally begin to have hope in Nigeria. Apart from the fact that light will spur economic development it will also have a massive physiological effect on the northern populace. Again people will begin to have hope and faith in a country they feel has neglected them and the amount of sympathizers will reduce dramatically. On top of that, the influence a lot of the boko haram benefactors and supporters have on the populace will be diminished.
Remember boko haram has sympathizers because a lot of the northerners feel neglected by the government. (though I have my issues with that because the north Has ruled nigeria for majority of her existence and are the ones actually responsible for the present state of the country )
Now those who wish Nigeria evil know this. It is why there has been a lot of vandalism of transmission lines and gas pipelines in the south ever since jonathan took office. It got so bad that our former minister of power had to resign because he said it was becoming dangerous. (good thing the new guy jonthan has put in named chinedu nebo gives no fukks. the dude is a warrior.)
They know jonathan providing electricity to the masses will be checkmate. They know when northern youths can finally turn on the light switch and have light coming from the bulbs that the calls for insurgency and their influence will be diminished. And if they dare attempt a coup Nigerians both northerners and southerners will unite to stop them. (that is just to show you how badly Nigerians are clamoring for just light.)
Now I am not saying if Jonathan wins in 2015 there will be peace immediately. Nope I suspect there will still be violence but it will subside. Again all this is to destroy jonthans credibility come 2015 so that their man can sit in Aso Rock. (Oil wells are expiring and they want to keep thier monopoly)
Now in regards to Jonathan:
he has his faults but he isnt as weak as he appears. In fact I believe he is playing stupid when it comes to domestic politics. Afterall all a weak and stupid president wouldn't implement bills like the PIB and local content policy that are intended to destabilize the monopoly international oil companies have had on the country for decades. A weak leader wouldnt dare butt heads with the international corporations like he is doing. A weak leader wouldnt have rejected the European union Ecowas deal that was economic enslavement repackaged after all the other countries in west africa had agreed to sign it.
Even with the present chibok captured school girls situation, countries like Britain, united states and France have said that the nigerian government has been unwilling to co-operate with them.
What they actually mean is that Jonathan is refusing to give into their demands. (For example I know america was requesting Nigeria submit to them all our military capabilities, weapons and tactics which Jonathan has repeatedly refused to do.)
As you can see Jonathan isnt stupid or weak...
In fact I believe Jonathan is one of the more stronger african leaders. Afterall the tale of african leaders is their ruthlessness towards their own people but their submissiveness to international corporations and nations. ( there is a reason african leaders are seen as toothless dogs in the eyes of the international media.)
Jonathan seems to be the reverse. He is cutthroat towards international companies/nations and appears weak when it comes to Nigerians. I believe if Jonathan is in power come 2015 your going to see a totally different man.
(Look at how Obama became cutthroat towards republicans after his reelection.)
That is the way Jonathan will be to his enemies if he wins re-eelction. This is because he will have nothing to lose. Right now he has been playing his cards close due to the fact he himself is uncertain about 2015. He has created so many enemies within his government and outside that he cannot afford to butt any more heads at the moment.
sorry for the long reply.
it become that more obvious. Infact I would say Jonathan is possibly the worst orator of all presidents Nigerias has had in her history. Even obasanjo(who was horrible as well) is a better speaker than him. But regardless, when I listen to Jonathon interviews and thoughts on his economic policies I dont see a vision less man. There are many times I have had to go back and rewind his interviews to truly pick out his intended message. He dosent have the ability to present his views, plans and vision in a way that will make Nigerians have confidence in his leadership. This is where his aides should come in but sadly they are not doing their jobs.