I'll be opening up a little position in Jumia. Gonna be a very long term play though, but based on what I've been reading, it could be a very big payoff.
Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion
Job numbers are the most lagging aspect of a recession
You missed my point. It’s obvious y’all are just taking buzzwords and phrases you’ve seen someone else say on the internet
Full employment is measured at a 4% unemployment rate
We’re at like 3.6%. Low unemployment means demand is sky high.
We’re not going to go from historic low unemployment at recession levels sharply, without an seismic event
How is demand sky high if for the last 2 quarters there was contracting GDP? It is not adding up at all. The natural rate of unemployment is actually more so 5%.
Also, unemployment can be fudged. UE = Those not employed but looking for work / Those in the labour force. UE does not take into account people who are unemployed but couldn't find work and just dropped out of the labour force in total.
Let's keep it a full 1000%. If Trump was in office it'd have been called a recession. Doesn't matter if it was brief, a recession is a recession.
If by Q3 it's 3 quarters of contracting GDP (which is very likely) there won't be anywhere to hide
Why should people not looking for jobs be counted in unemployment?How is demand sky high if for the last 2 quarters there was contracting GDP? It is not adding up at all. The natural rate of unemployment is actually more so 5%.
Also, unemployment can be fudged. UE = Those not employed but looking for work / Those in the labour force. UE does not take into account people who are unemployed but couldn't find work and just dropped out of the labour force in total.
Let's keep it a full 1000%. If Trump was in office it'd have been called a recession. Doesn't matter if it was brief, a recession is a recession.
If by Q3 it's 3 quarters of contracting GDP (which is very likely) there won't be anywhere to hide
What about right now feels like a recession other than y’all using buzzwords and concepts you’ve seen said around the internet?
A recession is a slowdown in the economy. That is felt and it hits certain sectors hard depending on reasons for the recession
1st quarter 2022 GDP: -1.6
2nd Quarter 2022 GDP: -.9
Those GDP numbers say the economy improved from the 1st to the 2nd qtr
US exports and personal incomes both increased in the 2nd Quarter
Read the GDP report and tell how this is a recession
Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on...
Save the conspiracies for TLR
Why should people not looking for jobs be counted in unemployment?
What about right now feels like a recession other than y’all using buzzwords and concepts you’ve seen said around the internet?
A recession is a slowdown in the economy. That is felt and it hits certain sectors hard depending on reasons for the recession
1st quarter 2022 GDP: -1.6
2nd Quarter 2022 GDP: -.9
Those GDP numbers say the economy improved from the 1st to the 2nd qtr
US exports and personal incomes both increased in the 2nd Quarter
Read the GDP report and tell how this is a recession
Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on...www.bea.gov
Save the conspiracies for TLR
hmmmm....idk, 2 contracting quarters of GDP like you've just posted there signals a recession brodi. But let's keep this about stocks. Like I said, end of Q3 there isn't gonna be any hiding.
A lot of the "growth" in preceding quarters was government spending via stimulus checks, PPP and boosted unemployment checks. That money has worked it's way through the system and is now mainly dried up.
If you read the article you posted you'll see that the PCE (which is about 70% of US GDP) is slowing down i.e. inflation forced demand destruction. Give it till Oct/Nov
Rickdogg44
RIP Charmander RIP Kobe
Never want to really bet against tsla stock but...
Regarding recession- I agree it is with 2 negative gdp. Unemployment makes it not as bad (or lagging with the various layoffs we've seen)
Inflation and consumer sentiment makes it spooky
PCE is a measure of inflation and it was at the same rate 1st quarter and 2nd quarter. It decreased if you exclude food and gas cost from the calculation
Slowdowns are apart of any economic cycle so it’s inevitable.
My only point is that we are not currently in a recession and the data shows that the GDP improved from the 1st qtr to the 2nd
2 negative GDP quarters equals a recession is like saying Westbrook had a good game because he got a triple double
SleezyBigSlim
Banned
Inflation Slows as Economy Cools, Offering a Reprieve: Live Updates
The Consumer Price Index climbed 8.5 percent in July, a bigger slowdown than expected, but inflation may remain uncomfortably high for some time.
Rickdogg44
RIP Charmander RIP Kobe
If it wasn't for stock split hype, I'd probably short tesla
Never want to really bet against tsla stock but...
Regarding recession- I agree it is with 2 negative gdp. Unemployment makes it not as bad (or lagging with the various layoffs we've seen)
Inflation and consumer sentiment makes it spooky
There’s no recession @OfTheCross
OfTheCross
Veteran
Never want to really bet against tsla stock but...
Regarding recession- I agree it is with 2 negative gdp. Unemployment makes it not as bad (or lagging with the various layoffs we've seen)
Inflation and consumer sentiment makes it spooky
We good, breh.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/are-we-in-recession-data/
BlaxOps
Pro
$TSLA running this morning. Last couple times it got to $940-$950 Elon sold. So lets see if he is done.
