Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

[Serious]

If close to retirement, how much was in stocks vs "safer" options?

I'm sure just has Vanguard and target date funds.

 

[Serious]

At this point, isn't it better for it to tank for sometime. Good to average down and buy in to real good companies. My biggest concern is layoffs. I want to be able to take advantage of the housing market if this comes crashing too.

I need a second remote job as soon as possible.

Layoffs are happening right now as we speak.
Look at some of the tech articles. It just tech right now, but other industries are sure to follow.

 

[Serious]

Nowhere to hide

KO & SARK

 

[GoldenGlove]

A rare time that sit on cash gang is winning.

 

[Serious]

There's a belief that we won't start bottoming out, until spy is around 360, because it will have dropped at least 25% from its peak at 479.

I'm not a financial advisor, so do at your own disclosure.

 

[winb83]

My mom is though. I gotta tell her to hold off for another year or two. She’s getting close but I won’t let her do it. Unless the market is up by this time Next year.

If she was close to retirement she probably adjusted the portfolio accordingly.

 

[Serious]

A million dollars wont be shyt by the time we turn 70, at the rate of inflation.

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

Another day in hell

Or to average down

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

Sh-t probably gonna be dead rest of '22 so get in where ya fit in

 

[Rickdogg44]

Cliffs: (All #'s are top of my head from last night so they might be slightly off)
- Core PCI excludes energy and food (basic life necessities) from headline CPI because it's believed that interest rates (main monetary policy) cannot directly affect energy and food pricing.
- Energy, Housing, Auto's, and food comprise ~62% of CPI. Roughly split 50/50 between (Food + energy) and (Housing + Autos). So here we are with 8.6% inflation, with ~30% of the weighting being unaffected by interest rates directly (it can be indirectly affected through a recession).
- He then lays out bear cases for each segment.

- Auto's ... Chip shortage (Intel said shortage up till 24')... Rare metals + lithium all up absurd amounts. & then you have to consider current wait lists are already "booked"... you have a long line to wait until you kill NEW demand.
- Housing.... Housing supply is extremely low + labor shortage.
- Energy .... Years of underinvestment + Gov. Slashing funding + Russia / Ukraine. Ev adoption (probable political bias is baked into this but these are some realities).
- Food .... This business is naturally volatile (can't control weather) ... fertilizer was a huge export from Russia... increasing cost of other supplies.


So, 62% of CPI is 4 segments, all of which have some very real headwinds facing them in supply + input costs. Two of those segments are not directly affected by interest rates. So, this comes down to basic algebra, all other components of the CPI have to massively come down IF the fed is set at a 2% CPI. This video had a heavy bearish bias and I'm sure there are bull cases for each segment, however was definitely informative and I recommended it if your in front of a comp.

His options strategy last 10 minutes pretty good too

 

[rightfultoefinger]

Let it burn down. No Feds stepping in or anything. Lets see what the real market is. Feel bad for people who want to retire soon but we can't have this market always being propped up. Besides, baby boomers should all have been eating good the last decade.

 

[chineebai]

tsla is fukkin scary man, open gap from nov 2020 at 415. I honestly won't be surprised if it gets there.

 

[GunRanger]

Guess who showed up

I miss him. Shame weasels like Kevin made him run off

 

[GoldenGlove]

When March 2020 hit, what was the trigger for any of you in this thread to buy? Were you DCAin the whole time, or did you deploy large amounts in waves? I haven't been buying because most indications are trending towards more downturn. For a brief time, I was "buying the dip" on a few stocks/crypto assets and they would keep "dipping".

Now I'm just watching the markets cause while I know you can't time the bottom/market, just putting money in now just doesn't seem like the wave at all IMO.

 

[ogc163]