mall-cap stocks will likely feel the most pain
The action for small-cap stocks is particularly ominous
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By
Philip van Doorn, MarketWatch
Russell 2000 Index with 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Following another week of elevated volatility for the broad market, analysts still differ on whether we’re positioned for a prolonged market pullback. But one thing is clear: Small-cap stocks are taking the worst beating.
This chart shows the movement of the Russell 2000 Index
RUT +0.77% over the past 12 months, along with the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The index has dropped below all three averages, which is the type of price momentum that can lead to a larger decline, according to Art Nunes, chief investment officer for Dynamic Investing Group, which has about $70 million in assets under management.
The Russell 2000’s 20-day moving average has moved below the 200-day average, and the 50-day may soon cross below the 200-day average because “there’s no sign buyers are coming into the market,” he told MarketWatch.
“The reason it is important, is that once a new trend emerges, it is persistent,” Nunes said.
The trend for small-cap stocks over several years has been upward, he said, but the 20-day moving average began to decline in January, after which the 50-day moving average began to decline. “Now it appears the long-term trend is about to reverse,” he said.
The S&P 500
SPX +0.67% Index, on the other hand, is still trading well above its 200-day average, although the index is trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, despite rising slightly this week.
“If you look at the overall market, it is in a long-term rising trend,” Nunses said. But for small-cap investors, “it’s a good time to take 10% to 20% of one’s portfolio off the table.” He predicted the Russell 2000 would head back toward its May lows.
Of course, there are pockets of opportunity in any market. Using the same approach of gauging the relative changes in moving averages, as well as price momentum, Nunes identified three broad market subsectors believes will outperform: coal mining, gold and silver mining and broker-dealers.
“One way to play the coal sector is an exchange-traded fund we like, the Market Vectors-Coal ETF
KOL +1.94% ,” Nunes said. For gold and silver, he recommends the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF
KOL +1.94% and the Global X Silver Miners ETF
SIL -0.69% , while for broker-dealers, he recommended iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers ETF
IAI +0.34% .
“The coal and precious metals sectors are at an earlier stage of recovery than the broad market, after having been beaten up,” Nunes said.
For the broker-dealers, “everything is parallel and moving up very nicely,” he said.
End of the bull run?
There has been no shortage of
warnings from market strategists that we’re heading for a major drop in stock prices. Then again, Piper Jaffray analyst Craig Johnson sees
70% upside for the S&P 500.
But Sterne Agee chief market technician Carter Worth found the trading action on July 31, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 300 points, to be particularly disturbing, because “it was aggressive selling, accompanied by numerous instances of heavy-volume dropping and gapping, the kind of selling that represents distribution—the backing away from assets and themes.”
Worth saw no reason over the past week to change his opinion that the bull market has ended. “The general premise is that there was a lot of damage done. It is hard to come out of the damage that has been sustained,” he told MarketWatch.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sm...ly-feel-the-most-pain-2014-08-10?link=sfmw_fb
kind of obvious I guess