Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

[Ohene]

Whole foods down in AH. Maybe next quarter?

hopefully.

It went down to the 35s after hours but has bounced back up to 37.50+. It has essentially just gone back down to where it was this morning so If the analysts hold their recommendations and it can sustain this level I should still be near break even on my options. Then its a matter of slow appreciation into the 40s

Perhaps I'm blind, but this all but confirms my suspicion on Friday that the company is undervalued and on its way up

 

[Futuristic Eskimo]

hopefully.

It went down to the 35s after hours but has bounced back up to 37.50+. It has essentially just gone back down to where it was this morning so If the analysts hold their recommendations and it can sustain this level I should still be near break even on my options. Then its a matter of slow appreciation into the 40s

Depends on how the implied volatility changes breh. One of my friends got killed on Apple calls when it traded sideways after earnings a while back.

 

[Ohene]

Depends on how the implied volatility changes breh. One of my friends got killed on Apple calls when it traded sideways after earnings.

Indeed, I once felt that effect when trying a GMCR straddle last year which is why I made sure to look at how the implied volatilties of far from expiry options were before I purchased.

My rationale is that if an option expires in two years / 2016 then that pretty much marks what the market considers the stocks volatility to be because anything more than 4 earnings releases is a crapshoot. Thats why I locked in some profit and picked the January expiry instead of November.

January 2015 volatility before the release was 30% | January 2016 volatility was 28.22% so I doubt it drops much.
For good measure: Sept 2014 was 43% and the Augusts ranged from 60%-150%...obviously those are toast after the first 5 minutes of trading

If WFM can close around 38 and IV remains around 29 which would make sense then I'm at break even cause of how much it went up today.

If it goes down to 37...I'm down about 25% which I wont mind. *sign of the cross*

 

[Ohene]

havent taken a real look at Tesla since last year really. this shyt is overvalued

From what I'm seeing, the market estimates EPS of about $3 for FY15. With about 125M shares outstanding that is $375M dollars.

.....

But the market expects 5.36B in revenue for FY15 which would create a profit margin of 7%.

Currently Tesla produces at a gross profit margin of about 25% and SG&A has ranged from 15-17% in the last four or five quarters.

That leaves 8% margin available. Bring R&D (historically always above 10%) and Tax (i'm guessing they have carryforwards though) into the equation and it's a little bit zealous i think. Considering the Model 3 will have to be priced fairly low to compete with average joe sedans it will require extensive R&D for its 2017 release even if they;ve already began. The Model X may create a spike in both COGS and SG&A with it being a newer and larger product.

Hmmm. Can't call it but the downside is certainly there...if not for the outlook for the fact that the Market is near all time highs

 

[Domingo Halliburton]

damn were those jobless claims numbers that bad to warrant this open?

 

[Big Jo]

WWE

king vince

 

[Ohene]

damn were those jobless claims numbers that bad to warrant this open?

I'm pretty sure it was the Argentinian default breh. I woke up at like 6am and saw the SPY was down 0.65% then

 

[Ohene]

Looks like upside from here on out for Whole Foods picking up right where it left off before yesterday. EXTREMELY bearish day for the Nasdaq100 but I suspected theres not much lower WFM can go. If lowered guidance for the 2nd month in a row cant bring it below 36 I'm not sure what can. Hopefully it can close above 37.5.

I'll be scooping so more up Monday probably

 

[Domingo Halliburton]

I'm pretty sure it was the Argentinian default breh. I woke up at like 6am and saw the SPY was down 0.65% then

yeah it was and Russia.

The futures moved down when they released those numbers though.

 

[labrokejames]

Whole portfolio is dipping today. Making a few moves as we speak.

 

[Ohene]

AAPL, GOOG and VZ for the low right now

@Hiphoplives4eva not bad for WFM. A bullish day for it, hasnt gone down since the first 15 mins really and only down 1.8 percent for the day. Considering its beta of 0.75...the Nasdaq100 being down 1.7% accounts for about two thirds of this post earnings drop.

Now i just gotta hope that the market is overreacting to economic data/news from today and rebounds.

edit: WFM back in the green how the hell is volatility still down to 27%
and BKS right where it needs to be :blesed:

 

[GoPro]

Got damn my port looking like Depression era Chicago right now. Gangland. Valentines Day massacre

 

[Ohene]

Got damn my port looking like Depression era Chicago right now. Gangland. Valentines Day massacre

honestly breh...if futures are green tomorrow, no bad news...and the market is higher after 8:30, then it was before 8:30...I'd wait a good 15 mins after the open and buy shyt

Wo nt be surprised if it closes around 196.

It'll probably continue dipping though.

 

[无名的]

honestly breh...if futures are green tomorrow, no bad news...and the market is higher after 8:30, then it was before 8:30...I'd wait a good 15 mins after the open and buy shyt

Wo nt be surprised if it closes around 196.

It'll probably continue dipping though.

I wouldn't be surprised if this default was the event that's looked back on as initiating the correction.

I created a portfolio of Argentine stocks to watch to scoop up at the bottom.

 

[Ohene]

I wouldn't be surprised if this default was the event that's looked back on as initiating the correction.

that's what I'm tryna tell my homie who just dipped his hand in. The old me woulda said down 2% and gobbled up spy calls like it was nothing. But fiuck it. Futures have been below the market value for a while now. I wouldnt dabble with the indices until theyre back to being around even.

Man this is a bloodbath though.