Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

[Doomsday]

Over a 10 year period? OK.
Over a FOURTY year period?

Yes. We live in a different era now.

People aren't factoring in options in the equation. Most people are speaking from the Buy & Hold antiquated strategy. Options adds so many elements to the game, you can 50% a year off of a sideways stock. Not to mention growth stocks that break out like TSLA.

If I do options on ARK-Series, a 20% yearly stock inflation would be 100-200% a year.

 

[FabTrey]

Cathie Wood increased her position even more this week. I got 10 shares late Wed, I'm gonna get about 20 more first thing on Monday.

damn. wish i got in.

can't buy them all.

 

[FabTrey]

Yes. We live in a different era now.

People aren't factoring in options in the equation. Most people are speaking from the Buy & Hold antiquated strategy. Options adds so many elements to the game, you can 50% a year off of a sideways stock. Not to mention growth stocks that break out like TSLA.

If I do options on ARK-Series, a 20% yearly stock inflation would be 100-200% a year.

i don't think i'll ever get into options. i just want to find next TSLAs. i ain't greedy.

 

[KalKal]

i wasn't even talking about 20% return every year. i was talking about 20% average in the span of 10, 20, 30, 40 years.

i returned nearly 200% this year. if i do lousy returns for next 5 years i probably still can average 20% in 5 years.

warren buffet didn't win 20% every year. he had his ups and downs. but over the 60+ year span his average was 20%.


and 20% AVERAGE is definitely achievable.

20%+ every year? now that's gonna be crazy hard.

Here's the thing:
The worst case scenario for "lousy returns" is not 0% returns...its NEGATIVE returns.
S&P 500 Historical Annual Returns | MacroTrends

Your particular "strategy" may be good enough to average 20% per year over a long enough timeline, but that doesn't help you at all if you run into a string of negative years and run OUT of money. Think of it like gambling. If you don't have enough money saved up to survive a string of losses, you can get RUINED:
Risk of ruin - Wikipedia

Risk of ruin is a concept in gambling, insurance, and finance relating to the likelihood of losing all one's investment capital[1] or extinguishing one's bankroll below the minimum for further play. For instance, if someone bets all their money on a simple coin toss, the risk of ruin is 50%. In a multiple-bet scenario, risk of ruin accumulates with the number of bets: each repeated play increases the risk, and persistent play ultimately yields the stochastic certainty of gambler's ruin.

If you are getting 200%+ per year, that means that you're taking some kind of risk. Not that that's a bad thing, but it means that you have to be aware that you need to have enough money built up to survive a string of losses...just like gambling.

 

[Mirin4rmfar]

Year to year varies but over 5+ years, especially getting into the 10+ territory, if you have 12-25% gains, you’re good. People don’t reiterate enough we’ve been in a 10/11 yr bull market. Go look at the index charts from 00-12 and you’ll see just how long it would’ve taken to get back to 00 levels. We’re lucky right now but there is some level of caution to be had

Thanks, I don't want to be too delusional about this. This thread has been an eye opener for me.

 

[Mirin4rmfar]

Man its so much game in this thread. Ive been on here aince 2012 might be the best thread Ive been in next to quick tips with women thread

Honestly, you combine this thread with the 6 cert 6 figure thread. You will be all set. Lots of free game. I had money sitting in my HSA I did not know could be invested, I had a 7k pension sitting from my previous job just sitting there not growing. Going forward I need to make sure I am maximizing my growth potential. Not trying to get left behind when ageism hit.

 

[NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong]

Looking forward to this thread in a bear market

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

Looking forward to this thread in a bear market

breh we had a couple good size pullbacks over the last 6-8 months and it sent a few dudes running for the hills lol. The two most important things are know what you are investing in and do NOT be out here risking more than you would be willing to have to hold on to when shyt gets crazy...

Just remember guys.. if the stock market was truly "easy" everyone would be millionaires. It's about being well prepared and doing your research.

 

[FabTrey]

Here's the thing:
The worst case scenario for "lousy returns" is not 0% returns...its NEGATIVE returns.
S&P 500 Historical Annual Returns | MacroTrends

Your particular "strategy" may be good enough to average 20% per year over a long enough timeline, but that doesn't help you at all if you run into a string of negative years and run OUT of money. Think of it like gambling. If you don't have enough money saved up to survive a string of losses, you can get RUINED:
Risk of ruin - Wikipedia



If you are getting 200%+ per year, that means that you're taking some kind of risk. Not that that's a bad thing, but it means that you have to be aware that you need to have enough money built up to survive a string of losses...just like gambling.

you gotta watch chicken genius breh. watch any cathie wood related videos.

for my long term hold - I believe in disruptive companies and undervalued companies. there will be a bad year for sure. but if they stick to the plan then they will eventually grow 10 fold.

These are my fidelity long hold

BYND - i believe plant based meat is here to stay. there's ton of growing left to do. IMO this is a safe bet. FE is in on this, and so are many legit investors in youtube. I've tried several of their products and they are legit. I tried the pizza hut. it's legit. and CEO is charismatic dude who knows what he is doing. i'm very excited about this.

DBX - got in dirt cheap at $18 and change. cloud storage won't go away. they have very easy integration and recurring subscription is great. they have a tremendous growing left to do.

LMND - now this is a true disruptor. i mean talk about the potential. but the risk is high. and I already ate 100% profit. i still have 290 shares left with $52 avg.

MP - this is my new addition. this is a risky stock. but rare earth is the future. and this is a EV play. so 2020 will be kind to this stock especially when they have 75% market share.

PLNHF - IMO this is a true unicorn weed stock. They have money to expand. they got the brand and working on products. I got in below $2 and then load more in $3s. currently avg at $2.9 already ate 100% profit.

TDOC - telehealth is here to stay. they acquired livongo - they will continue to be among the leader in this growing space. i fail to see how they will fold this decade.

TSLA - i believed in TSLA then, i believe in TSLA now. i bought and bought this stock because i believe that it has forever changed the auto industry. and this is a tech company. they will continue to innovate, expand, and execute. i'm glad i load the boat. i'll hold probably forever. yes this year was special. i don't expect them to 6x in a year ever again. but with the speed of innovation, strong financials, and charismatic leader i see them continue to expand and grow. i do think the market share will go down due to the increase in competitions. but for me TSLA is the APPL. there will be ton of APPL wannabes, but it's all about making the profit and win the hearts of fanboys. and there are ton of them.

TTCF - another promising growth stock. It's severely undervalued IMO because not only they haven't even really had a time to penetrate every groceries out there, but they haven't even begun to expand in the foreign market yet. they will also expand the ecommerce exposure. plant based industry will only grow.


there. i feel like i'm very comfortable going long with these stocks. if shyt happens shyt happens. I was UBER long, but i didn't believe in the company anymore so i took 30% gain and sold it. and i sold several stocks. i'm at a shuffling stage. but i feel like i'm set with these.

and i really don't consider any of these stocks a gamble. gamble to me is trading penny stocks strictly by hearsay and looking at the charts. to me that's a gamble.

 

[Kal El]

Looking forward to this thread in a bear market

This bull market got dudes feeling themselves too much. Warren Buffet has an annual return of 20% all time but dudes in here think that’s cake.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

you gotta watch chicken genius breh. watch any cathie wood related videos.

for my long term hold - I believe in disruptive companies and undervalued companies. there will be a bad year for sure. but if they stick to the plan then they will eventually grow 10 fold.

These are my fidelity long hold

BYND - i believe plant based meat is here to stay. there's ton of growing left to do. IMO this is a safe bet. FE is in on this, and so are many legit investors in youtube. I've tried several of their products and they are legit. I tried the pizza hut. it's legit. and CEO is charismatic dude who knows what he is doing. i'm very excited about this.

DBX - got in dirt cheap at $18 and change. cloud storage won't go away. they have very easy integration and recurring subscription is great. they have a tremendous growing left to do.

LMND - now this is a true disruptor. i mean talk about the potential. but the risk is high. and I already ate 100% profit. i still have 290 shares left with $52 avg.

MP - this is my new addition. this is a risky stock. but rare earth is the future. and this is a EV play. so 2020 will be kind to this stock especially when they have 75% market share.

PLNHF - IMO this is a true unicorn weed stock. They have money to expand. they got the brand and working on products. I got in below $2 and then load more in $3s. currently avg at $2.9 already ate 100% profit.

TDOC - telehealth is here to stay. they acquired livongo - they will continue to be among the leader in this growing space. i fail to see how they will fold this decade.

TSLA - i believed in TSLA then, i believe in TSLA now. i bought and bought this stock because i believe that it has forever changed the auto industry. and this is a tech company. they will continue to innovate, expand, and execute. i'm glad i load the boat. i'll hold probably forever. yes this year was special. i don't expect them to 6x in a year ever again. but with the speed of innovation, strong financials, and charismatic leader i see them continue to expand and grow. i do think the market share will go down due to the increase in competitions. but for me TSLA is the APPL. there will be ton of APPL wannabes, but it's all about making the profit and win the hearts of fanboys. and there are ton of them.

TTCF - another promising growth stock. It's severely undervalued IMO because not only they haven't even really had a time to penetrate every groceries out there, but they haven't even begun to expand in the foreign market yet. they will also expand the ecommerce exposure. plant based industry will only grow.


there. i feel like i'm very comfortable going long with these stocks. if shyt happens shyt happens. I was UBER long, but i didn't believe in the company anymore so i took 30% gain and sold it. and i sold several stocks. i'm at a shuffling stage. but i feel like i'm set with these.

and i really don't consider any of these stocks a gamble. gamble to me is trading penny stocks strictly by hearsay and looking at the charts. to me that's a gamble.

People need to be sure not to conflate what they subjectivity consider risky to what’s objectively risky - this is a high risk portfolio

 

[FabTrey]

This bull market got dudes feeling themselves too much. Warren Buffet has an annual return of 20% all time but dudes in here think that’s cake.

how many times i have to explain to yall.

it's much easier to return 20%+ when you don't deal with billions of dollars because you can have much higher risk tolerance.

just look at buffet's portfolio. it's almost impossible to return 20%+ if you are this diversified. he has almost zero risk tolerance if you ask me.

if you are investing in 40, 50, 60 stocks then you might as well just invest in S&P.


and bear market is the greatest thing that happened to investors. that's when you load the boat. i have money ready to be deployed when the market crashes. i'm ready to dollar cost average at any market climate. bear market only means i'm building my position. let's say BYND never grows and keeps trading between $120-$150 for next 5 years and still they are growing and expanding like how Tesla was between 2012-2019. i would load the boat if it happens. my % in that stretch may say nothing. but i know there will be a day when it will break out like a mofo.

and honestly, i hate this bull market. everything is so damn expensive. I can't buy any of these expensive stocks. you can find undervalued stocks, but there aren't many out there.

my biggest wish list is a 20% crash next year. and year after that. hell please make it happen every year. i'm ready to load the boat.

 

[Reign X]

This bull market got dudes feeling themselves too much. Warren Buffet has an annual return of 20% all time but dudes in here think that’s cake.

He’s limited, if he was investing on the side with 100k he would do better. Also, if he didn’t miss out on growth stocks beside Apple.



Buffett has often observed that small investors have an advantage over him. As the head of a company now worth $549 billion, Buffett can only move the needle by investing in other large companies. That explains why he picked up shares of Apple recently, and why Coca-Colaand Wells Fargo are two of his biggest holdings.

In Buffett's world, only a few hundred American companies are actually big enough to be reasonable investments for him, severely limiting his options. In Berkshire's earlier days, the company was much smaller and grew faster, in part because it had a wider array of investment options.

For years, Buffett has warned that Berkshire's returns would decline as it got bigger. It's a reflection of the law of large numbers, and that prediction from the Oracle of Omaha has come true.

 

[FabTrey]

People need to be sure not to conflate what they subjectivity consider risky to what’s objectively risky - this is a high risk portfolio

94% domestic, 6% foreign, no bonds. and i don't invest in every sectors. so yeah this is an aggressive growth portfolio. hopefully one of these stocks turn into a next TSLA.

 

[Kal El]

He’s limited, if he was investing on the side with 100k he would do better. Also, if he didn’t miss out on growth stocks beside Apple.



Buffett has often observed that small investors have an advantage over him. As the head of a company now worth $549 billion, Buffett can only move the needle by investing in other large companies. That explains why he picked up shares of Apple recently, and why Coca-Colaand Wells Fargo are two of his biggest holdings.

In Buffett's world, only a few hundred American companies are actually big enough to be reasonable investments for him, severely limiting his options. In Berkshire's earlier days, the company was much smaller and grew faster, in part because it had a wider array of investment options.

For years, Buffett has warned that Berkshire's returns would decline as it got bigger. It's a reflection of the law of large numbers, and that prediction from the Oracle of Omaha has come true.

how many times i have to explain to yall.

it's much easier to return 20%+ when you don't deal with billions of dollars because you can have much higher risk tolerance.

just look at buffet's portfolio. it's almost impossible to return 20%+ if you are this diversified.

if you are investing in 40, 50, 60 stocks then you might as well just invest in S&P.


and bear market is the greatest thing that happened to investors. that's when you load the boat. i have money ready to be deployed when the market crashes. i'm ready to dollar cost average at any market climate. bear market only means i'm building my position. let's say BYND never grows and keeps trading between $120-$150 for next 5 years and still they are growing and expanding like how Tesla was between 2012-2019. i would load the boat if it happens. my % in that stretch may say nothing. but i know there will be a day when it will break out like a mofo.

and honestly, i hate this bull market. everything is so damn expensive. I can't buy any of these expensive stocks. you can find undervalued stocks, but there aren't many out there.

my biggest wish list is a 20% crash next year. and year after that. hell please make it happen every year. i'm ready to load the boat.

Yeah BRKB has underperformed the S&P over the last decade, and Buffett’s likely to miss out on a lot of these growth stocks because he only invests in things he understands (although they did scoop up SNOW’s IPO....im sure that was someone else’s call). But 20% is a number only a small percentage of investors have achieved over the past few decades.

I’m up triple digits on the year, but I’m keeping a level head because I know a few of the exploits in the market right now won’t last forever. If Cathie decided to not make ARK’s trades transparent a lot of geniuses in this market would take a hit.