Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

Starski

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Someone bought $10k (edit or 10k volume) of 160 Spy puts for 1/15/2021? :dwillhuh:

yeah just opened up for $.04

10k volume.

That civil war hedge

Super lower delta so if you even see a slight increase (towards the negative) in gamma

full
 

Scholar

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yeah just opened up for $.04

10k volume.

That civil war hedge

Super lower delta so if you even see a slight increase (towards the negative) in gamma

full
If SPY hits 162 by 1/13 that person makes a 6375% return and makes $637,500

Once in a generation play
 

Starski

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If SPY hits 162 by 1/13 that person makes a 6375% return and makes $637,500

Once in a generation play

Yeah, in this case the bears starting capital is 40k, so his return would be 2.59M


But remember, forecasting deep deep otm options is hard. 99.9% of it is due to how exactly will the "crash" happens. If the S&P takes a 30% haircut( 252 ending price) a week before the options expire, it's still relatively worthless. If that same crash happens the first week of December, my bear friend is caking. During the crash down I remember looking at puts that were in the 160-190 range with ~few weeks till expiry trading near a dollar.

Also, just like how people buy stocks that are above their "intrinsic" value all the time due to momentum the same applies to options.
 
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FabTrey

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I was reading that Moderna is basically using the same method as Pfizer so that's more of a sample size now. I don't trust them nearly as much but I do think it spells good news overall for the vaccine. Most people believe now that we will have it by Spring.

i'm pretty much done with the vaccine stocks. it's a damn crab shoot at this point. i ate enough, so i ain't complainin, but there's some serious politics/corruption going on in this space.
 

winb83

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I'm finally positive on all my UTX positions.

Carrier I'm up 67%
Raytheon I'm up 6%
Otis I'm up 1.4%

I feel like I should dump Otis. This is the first time since the UTX split that I've been positive on them at all.
 
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