If SPY hits 162 by 1/13 that person makes a 6375% return and makes $637,500
Once in a generation play
Yeah, in this case the bears starting capital is 40k, so his return would be 2.59M
But remember, forecasting deep deep otm options is hard. 99.9% of it is due to how exactly will the "crash" happens. If the S&P takes a 30% haircut( 252 ending price) a week before the options expire, it's still relatively worthless. If that same crash happens the first week of December, my bear friend is caking. During the crash down I remember looking at puts that were in the 160-190 range with ~few weeks till expiry trading near a dollar.
Also, just like how people buy stocks that are above their "intrinsic" value all the time due to momentum the same applies to options.