Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

winb83

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I agree, in the near term, CV pandemonium is priced in unless we see an exponential spike in deaths. We might see a late q2/q3 dip with summer spending down, but we’ll stabilize (save for volatility in certain sectors) for the next 2-3 weeks
Trump is pushing to bring large sections of the economy back up. Outside of the hotspots he's probably gonna get his way. I suspect we've probably hit the bottom when the Dow was in the 18,000 point range but I will continue to watch and buy if things continue to go down or if they start climbing again.
 

CrimsonTider

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Trump is pushing to bring large sections of the economy back up. Outside of the hotspots he's probably gonna get his way. I suspect we've probably hit the bottom when the Dow was in the 18,000 point range but I will continue to watch and buy if things continue to go down or if they start climbing again.

the entire US is a hotspot
 

winb83

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Case numbers are not the best way to measure this and you know that
They have 31% of the deaths related to the virus in the country. There are hotspots huge metropolitan areas where this is insane. The whole county isn't on the level of New York.
 

CrimsonTider

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They have 31% of the deaths related to the virus in the country. There are hotspots huge metropolitan areas where this is insane. The whole county isn't on the level of New York.
If people are going back to work, Everywhere else will look like NY in no time

the virus is everywhere is my point.


You’re saying open the Economy back up if isn’t a hotspot is not the right way to think of this
 
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At this moment, markets are probably more expensive relative to earnings then they were before the crash began. There is very little visibility into what earnings will look like into a recession or what the recession even looks like under these circumstances. Hard to talk about what you priced in or not when we don't know enough about what the world looks like in 6 to 12 months. Fauci said this might stick around and come back in the winter. That scenario is definitely not positive for consumer spending and earnings.
 

ahomeplateslugger

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I agree, in the near term, CV pandemonium is priced in unless we see an exponential spike in deaths. We might see a late q2/q3 dip with summer spending down, but we’ll stabilize (save for volatility in certain sectors) for the next 2-3 weeks

2-3 weeks??

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti warns of mass death, condemns 'false hope,' and tells us his city will be on lockdown for another 2 months — and to 'be prepared for longer'

san francisco wants to suspend rent and mortgage payments Coronavirus Crisis: SF supervisors propose stop on all rent, mortgage payments SF supervisors propose stop on all rent, mortgage payments

2-3 weeks is very hopeful thinking.
 
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How are airlines viable in a world where countries are banning flights been each other to limit reimporting the virus after they have taken care of the initial virus? They have to exist but what are they worth? Not sure but less than they are now probably.
 

dora_da_destroyer

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The markets will be (relatively) stable - as in I don’t see that big sell off from last week happening again in the next 2-3 weeks. None of this is news that’s shaking the markets, it’s baked in.

and personally, the doomsday outlook of some states/cities is about as laughable as the states who want to keep things 100% normal, both sides are being too reactionary
 
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