Bitcoin is a Ponzi

[lib123]

thread got bushed because he kept "predicting" BTC will crash to 15k since last Labor day. the prediction kept flopping. every month another excuse. then his stimulus theory wasn't holding up anymore.

we tried to have dialog about this theory which was full of holes - "BTC only went up because of stimulus checks".

We're approaching Summer 2022. There haven't been any stimulus checks issued in well over 1 year. Inflation is high as hell. With this theory one would've thought that BTC would've crashed back down to pre-covid levels of sub 10k or even 0 since it's a ponzi right? all the covid stimulus is dried up, so by now everyone should've cashed out and sent BTC down to 0 right?

Only response is - 'bbbbut nassim taleb predicted the housing crash and he said this..'

so now all that's left is breh posting gifs and videos anytime the market takes a dip. shyt is comedy

The stimulus was a major catalyst behind crypto’s rise. This is well known, many people wouldn’t have opened accounts if they didn’t get that extra money. And yes, I was wrong on the exact date by a few months. It’s comedy that y’all didn’t see crypto is in a bubble.

 

[the bossman]

I'm confused because the thread is from Dec 2021 so what does that have to do with labor day? And Bitcoin has lost 50% of its value since Dec 1 of last year so he seems more right than wrong on that note....someone got the thread bushed because it "only" lost 50% of its value instead of 75%?

Again it did not get bushed because the market took a dip. this dude has been saying btc is a ponzi that's going to crash back down to 0 (or 10-15k at the least) for a full on year now. This was not his first thread about btc. He kept spamming this 'prediction' and trolling in other btc threads which he eventually got banned from. He kept it going here, which is reason #1 why this eventually got bushed

I completely agree that it was silly of him to try to make exact predictions about how a market of irrational actors will behave with an asset whose price is not based on its underlying value, if that is what he was doing.

But I don't get your point, "inflation is high as hell" - doesn't that make bitcoin's drop look even worse?

again. his theory is that bitcoin is nothing but a big ponzi that will crash to 0 (or 10-15k at the very least). It only went up because of stimulus checks. The stimulus checks have stopped for more than a year now. A ponzi with no value and pure speculation like bitcoin should've surely crashed back down to 0 or 10-15k now once the stimulus juice stopped and also the fact that it's running in a high inflationary environment where highly speculative assets usually do poorly. Add in the Russia/Ukraine macro mess and a ponzi like btc should've been deaded by now. His theory isn't holding water. It should've crashed back down to pre-covid levels by now. thus reason #2 it got bushed

bitcoin's current drop is not that big a deal in the grand scheme. it's still a young market, so there will be wild boom and bust cycles in early years just like we saw with the Internet. it becomes less volatile over the time as the space gets bigger and more adoption happens. The current drop looks horrible if you're only focused on a timeframe of a few months. Once you zoom out, it's nothing but a blip. All the info shows adoption is increasing day after day, so it's just a matter of time before the market turns around.

 

[the bossman]

The stimulus was a major catalyst behind crypto’s rise. This is well known, many people wouldn’t have opened accounts if they didn’t get that extra money. And yes, I was wrong on the exact date by a few months. It’s comedy that y’all didn’t see crypto is in a bubble.

There were people opening accounts before covid. Adoption has been increasing every year since its inception in '09. You could argue that yes people sitting at home due to covid with stimulus checks gave it an extra boost, but crypto was growing year after year before covid. Now that covid has died down, people can go outside, and the checks have stopped. the adoption should be stopping according to you. There should be no more new accounts getting opened up, but it's still growing. why is that?

And yes, I was wrong on the exact date by a few months

my guy. you're still wrong. it's going to 10-15k is exactly what you said. so you've still been wrong for a year plus and counting. If you told me the market would simply see more dips in the future I would've said, of course. it's a young technology that's still early stage. there will be violent boom bust cycles that taper off as time goes on and the market gets bigger. so you're still wrong

 

[Professor Emeritus]

In addition to being a pyramid scheme, Bitcoin is completely fukked up for environmental reasons. And in a time when we're literally destroying the Earth, y'all want to keep ramping up Bitcoin more and more to justify its completely unjustifiable price. I'm interested to know how you think the bitcoin pyramid will maintain itself once governments crack down and ban it for the sole reason that it's a needless source of pollution and drain on global energy supplies at a historical moment when reducing energy consumption is both a geopolitical and existential crisis.

Rest of the world: "We need to reduce our energy usage to stop Global Warming and keep countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia from holding the planet hostage."

Bitcoin enthusiasts: "fukk that, we have arbitrary calculations with intense power needs to run!"

A ponzi with no value and pure speculation like bitcoin should've surely crashed back down to 0 or 10-15k now once the stimulus juice stopped and also the fact that it's running in a high inflationary environment where highly speculative assets usually do poorly.

Your claim about how pyramids and ponzis "surely" work isn't reflected in reality. How do you explain so many ponzi and pyramid schemes lasting for decades if you want to claim every one immediately crashes to zero? Madoff's ponzi scam lasted 15-30 years (depending who you believe about when it started) and survived the dot-com bust and 2001 recession with no problem. Nutralife has lasted 40 years despite being just a big-ass pyramid scheme and even continued to get new adoption after a $200 million government fine for fraudulent practices.

I don't think bitcoin has "zero" underlying value, but I do agree crypto has largely been acting like a pyramid scheme. The vast majority of people who put money into it are not betting on its "underlying value", they're just chasing an irrational rise and blindly putting money in because they think other people are going to blindly put money in after them.

What do you believe the "true value" of Bitcoin is right now? What would its appropriate market valuation be based on its actual value in the economy?

and also the fact that it's running in a high inflationary environment where highly speculative assets usually do poorly.

But bitcoin is doing poorly in this inflationary environment, it's down 60% in the last six months. Crypto in general is doing terrible right now.

 

[the bossman]

In addition to being a pyramid scheme, Bitcoin is completely fukked up for environmental reasons. And in a time when we're literally destroying the Earth, y'all want to keep ramping up Bitcoin more and more to justify its completely unjustifiable price. I'm interested to know how you think the bitcoin pyramid will maintain itself once governments crack down and ban it for the sole reason that it's a needless source of pollution and drain on global energy supplies at a historical moment when reducing energy consumption is both a geopolitical and existential crisis.

Rest of the world: "We need to reduce our energy usage to stop Global Warming and keep countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia from holding the planet hostage."

Bitcoin enthusiasts: "fukk that, we have arbitrary calculations with intense power needs to run!"

America gives Billions more dollars in subsidies to oil/gas companies than they do to renewable energy ones every year. gas companies were cripwalking to record profits this quarter. but the govt worried about btc? do you even drive an EV? nikkas actually believe the govt care about the environment?

Not to mention the majority of new btc miners in America use renewable energy sources anyway. does this look like a govt getting ready to crack down and ban btc? FACT SHEET: President Biden to Sign Executive Order on Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets | The White House

Your claim about how pyramids and ponzis "surely" work isn't reflected in reality. How do you explain so many ponzi and pyramid schemes lasting for decades if you want to claim every one immediately crashes to zero? Madoff's ponzi scam lasted 15-30 years (depending who you believe about when it started) and survived the dot-com bust and 2001 recession with no problem. Nutralife has lasted 40 years despite being just a big-ass pyramid scheme and even continued to get new adoption after a $200 million government fine for fraudulent practices.

Show me any ponzi or pyramid that is/was as big as btc today. even as it's down right now. The average ponzi scheme lasts what 4 or 5 years? Was madoff not the longest and biggest one? And that was what 60 billion? So they usually last a few years, they top out at a couple million -- maybe couple billion in madoff's case before finally collapsing. Now you're comparing that to a trillion dollar asset in btc (which is still growing) that has been running for at least 13 years. what ponzi has ever reached those levels without completely collapsing? at a certain point, one would think ok maybe it's not a ponzi. maybe there's something here. ponzis can get big, but they've never gotten THIS big. even herbalife is a what? 5 billion dollar company? btc is down by a lot right now and yet still worth over half a trillion. so unless you think this is it for btc and it will never go back up, then the lazy ponzi/pyramid comparison isn't holding water

I don't think bitcoin has "zero" underlying value, but I do agree crypto has largely been acting like a pyramid scheme. The vast majority of people who put money into it are not betting on its "underlying value", they're just chasing an irrational rise and blindly putting money in because they think other people are going to blindly put money in after them.

What do you believe the "true value" of Bitcoin is right now? What would its appropriate market valuation be based on its actual value in the economy?

no argument there. lot of people jumping into memecoins and other risky alts trying to get rich quick . That doesn't mean that's all the market will ever be. This is early stage. The market doesn't need 10,000+ coins. A lot of them are going to fail like majority startups, but some gems will rise over time. Same way in the early days of the Internet, a lot of tech companies popped up, gold rush ensued, crashed and burned by the dotcom boom before we got the Googles and Amazons of today. If people want to play the game they should know the risks, otherwise just stick to btc. same way nobody can force you to go to Vegas and lose your mortgage in the casino, nobody holding a gun to anyones head to jump into doggy inu or cryptocartoon NFTs

What do you believe the "true value" of Bitcoin is right now? What would its appropriate market valuation be based on its actual value in the economy?

the value is what it is today. the way adoption keeps growing, it's most likely easily touching mid six figures within the next five years.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

America gives Billions more dollars in subsidies to oil/gas companies than they do to renewable energy ones every year. gas companies were cripwalking to record profits this quarter. but the govt worried about btc? do you even drive an EV? nikkas actually believe the govt care about the environment?

Look at this dumbass deflection. Do you actually believe the government is going to keep ignoring the climate crisis indefinitely? That as the consequences become more and more severe, they will do absolutely nothing? At least oil plays an essential aspect in American life, whereas bitcoin is literally meaningless to the rest of the legal economy and everyone who doesn't own a stake in it.

And yes, my personal carbon footprint is extremely low, but that's neither here nor there, that's just you desperately throwing shyt against a wall trying to find something to stick.

Not to mention the majority of new btc miners in America use renewable energy sources anyway.

That reasoning is ridiculous, first off because renewable energy sources have their own environmental issues, and second because there's not nearly enough renewable in the USA so if you're using renewable it just means someone else is using that much more non-renewable to make up for it. There's a small % of renewable that is excess in the system but that's a tiny portion of what bitcoin is using. The energy crisis is going to require that we reduce energy expenditure significantly, not just switch to "renewables"....while bitcoin promoters want us to massively increase energy expenditure solely so they can play gambling games.

You can't seriously be using as much energy as the entire nation of Argentina and then pretend it doesn't have a massive impact. And that's at current adoption which is basically using it as an investment toy, what would it look like at actual mass adoption?

Show me any ponzi or pyramid that is/was as big as btc today. even as it's down right now. The average ponzi scheme lasts what 4 or 5 years? Was madoff not the longest and biggest one? And that was what 60 billion? So they usually last a few years, they top out at a couple million -- maybe couple billion in madoff's case before finally collapsing. Now you're comparing that to a trillion dollar asset in btc (which is still growing) that has been running for at least 13 years. what ponzi has ever reached those levels without completely collapsing? at a certain point, one would think ok maybe it's not a ponzi. maybe there's something here. ponzis can get big, but they've never gotten THIS big. even herbalife is a what? 5 billion dollar company? btc is down by a lot right now and yet still worth over half a trillion. so unless you think this is it for btc and it will never go back up, then the lazy ponzi/pyramid comparison isn't holding water

Your entire fukking argument is that it can't be a pyramid scheme....because it's big? :lol:

Sthe value is what it is today. the way adoption keeps growing, it's most likely easily touching mid six figures within the next five years.

I'm asking you what the actual underlying value is. Why can't you answer that question? If the value is whatever it is at the moment, then the value is nothing, because there is no underlying reason for the value not to fall to zero if there's a run on it (as we have seen with numerous coins already).

 

[the bossman]

Look at this dumbass deflection. Do you actually believe the government is going to keep ignoring the climate crisis indefinitely? That as the consequences become more and more severe, they will do absolutely nothing? At least oil plays an essential aspect in American life, whereas bitcoin is literally meaningless to the rest of the legal economy and everyone who doesn't own a stake in it.

And yes, my personal carbon footprint is extremely low, but that's neither here nor there, that's just you desperately throwing shyt against a wall trying to find something to stick.

at this point you just sound mad. I made a dumbass deflection yet you started off with the wrong assumption that the govt was planning to crack down and ban btc for pollution? The govt clearly wrote they have no plans to ban (like you wrongly assumed) it for pollution but instead want to make sure there's little negative impact on climate as the technology continues to grow. This includes moving most of the mining activities to using renewable sources. So it turns out that crypto is so meaningless to everyone that the president had to write an executive order to let it be known they support the innovation. that really sounds toxic and harmful to the environment. solid theory

"first off because renewable energy sources have their own environmental issues". You lost me at renewables being bad for the environment. Now there's not enough? We better halt the industry shift to EVs too. They'll take up too much of the little bit of energy we have. You're just all over the place now.

Your entire fukking argument is that it can't be a pyramid scheme....because it's big? :lol:

you right. It is a ponzi. going to 0 this year.

I'm asking you what the actual underlying value is. Why can't you answer that question? If the value is whatever it is at the moment, then the value is nothing, because there is no underlying reason for the value not to fall to zero if there's a run on it (as we have seen with numerous coins already).

you seem to struggle when you're given an answer you don't like. like the question about how crypt will survive with the govt trying to ban it. I just told you I believe the value is what it is today. it's early technology. if it accomplishes what it set out to do to act as a viable decentralized secure alternative to the global financial system then it's a multi-trillion dollar asset at the least (mid six figure price). if not, maybe something goes horribly wrong, the network goes down and it all goes to 0

 

[MasterOfAllHeSurveyz]

at this point you just sound mad. I made a dumbass deflection yet you started off with the wrong assumption that the govt was planning to crack down and ban btc for pollution? The govt clearly wrote they have no plans to ban (like you wrongly assumed) it for pollution but instead want to make sure there's little negative impact on climate as the technology continues to grow. This includes moving most of the mining activities to using renewable sources. So it turns out that crypto is so meaningless to everyone that the president had to write an executive order to let it be known they support the innovation. that really sounds toxic and harmful to the environment. solid theory

"first off because renewable energy sources have their own environmental issues". You lost me at renewables being bad for the environment. Now there's not enough? We better halt the industry shift to EVs too. They'll take up too much of the little bit of energy we have. You're just all over the place now.


you right. It is a ponzi. going to 0 this year.


you seem to struggle when you're given an answer you don't like. like the question about how crypt will survive with the govt trying to ban it. I just told you I believe the value is what it is today. it's early technology. if it accomplishes what it set out to do to act as a viable decentralized secure alternative to the global financial system then it's a multi-trillion dollar asset at the least (mid six figure price). if not, maybe something goes horribly wrong, the network goes down and it all goes to 0

You should've gave a one word response like I did.

 

[Mike Nasty]

So now they're clowning this thread cause it only lost 50% and not the predicted 100%.

I'd love to receipt one how you fans have invested in the last couple days.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

at this point you just sound mad. I made a dumbass deflection yet you started off with the wrong assumption that the govt was planning to crack down and ban btc for pollution? The govt clearly wrote they have no plans to ban (like you wrongly assumed) it for pollution but instead want to make sure there's little negative impact on climate as the technology continues to grow. This includes moving most of the mining activities to using renewable sources. So it turns out that crypto is so meaningless to everyone that the president had to write an executive order to let it be known they support the innovation. that really sounds toxic and harmful to the environment. solid theory

Don't debate environmental issues if you have literally no fukking idea what you're talking about. I didn't say the government was "planning" to do that, but it will happen. Who is your go-to for understanding how dire the carbon situation is going to be 10-15 years from now?

"first off because renewable energy sources have their own environmental issues". You lost me at renewables being bad for the environment. Now there's not enough? We better halt the industry shift to EVs too. They'll take up too much of the little bit of energy we have. You're just all over the place now.

Again, don't debate environmental shyt if you have literally zero idea what you're talking about. We need to convert fossil fuel use to renewables use AND reduce overall use. That's not tough to understand. If you struggled to follow even that much, then you clearly haven't been engaging in environmental issues at all.

you right. It is a ponzi. going to 0 this year.

Which I said when?

But just to be safe, you should get a stablecoin so you won't have to worry about going to 0, amiright? :youmadd?:

you seem to struggle when you're given an answer you don't like. like the question about how crypt will survive with the govt trying to ban it. I just told you I believe the value is what it is today. it's early technology. if it accomplishes what it set out to do to act as a viable decentralized secure alternative to the global financial system then it's a multi-trillion dollar asset at the least (mid six figure price). if not, maybe something goes horribly wrong, the network goes down and it all goes to 0

Calculate what bitcoin's energy expenditure would be if it was actually a meaningful portion of the global financial system. It's completely prohibitive. And the more the price of bitcoin goes up, the worse the energy expenditure becomes. If total bitcoin went to $3 trillion it would be using 10% of all energy on Earth! That's more than every flight in existence....and you'd be wasting all that energy solely fukking around with meaningless calculations for protocols at a moment when the existential future of the Earth is as stake.

And even beyond energy expenditure, bitcoin mining already produces 480,000,000 pounds of e-waste every year. What is that going to look like when it ramps up?

So if that's what you're banking on or else it goes to 0......

 

[lib123]

There were people opening accounts before covid. Adoption has been increasing every year since its inception in '09. You could argue that yes people sitting at home due to covid with stimulus checks gave it an extra boost, but crypto was growing year after year before covid. Now that covid has died down, people can go outside, and the checks have stopped. the adoption should be stopping according to you. There should be no more new accounts getting opened up, but it's still growing. why is that?


my guy. you're still wrong. it's going to 10-15k is exactly what you said. so you've still been wrong for a year plus and counting. If you told me the market would simply see more dips in the future I would've said, of course. it's a young technology that's still early stage. there will be violent boom bust cycles that taper off as time goes on and the market gets bigger. so you're still wrong

The further we get away from stimulus, the sharper the drop in new accounts and active users. Look at Coinbase’s recent earnings report and 50% stock collapse last week. And yeah, I’ve been wrong for a year. Taleb, Paulson, etc were off by a year or so about the ‘08 housing crash. I underestimated how many people were delusional about crypto. Just like they underestimated how many people would be foolish enough to take out subprime loans. The end result will be the same. Major crash.

And after this next crash, where are the new pool of investors going to come from? Most new crypto investors bought at or near the top with free money from the government. You think that they’re going to throw their hard earned money at crypto when they’ve already lost a lot? In an economy entering recession while prices are rapidly rising and increasing job insecurity? If anything, they’re going to start panic selling to get out while they can. Crypto was on the brink of completely collapsing last Thursday after Tether rapidly declined. Y’all are done.

 

[BuckFilly]

 

[lib123]

Lol this thread should’ve never been bushed.

 

[Originalman]

The further we get away from stimulus, the sharper the drop in new accounts and active users. Look at Coinbase’s recent earnings report and 50% stock collapse last week. And yeah, I’ve been wrong for a year. Taleb, Paulson, etc were off by a year or so about the ‘08 housing crash. I underestimated how many people were delusional about crypto. Just like they underestimated how many people would be foolish enough to take out subprime loans. The end result will be the same. Major crash.

And after this next crash, where are the new pool of investors going to come from? Most new crypto investors bought at or near the top with free money from the government. You think that they’re going to throw their hard earned money at crypto when they’ve already lost a lot? In an economy entering recession while prices are rapidly rising and increasing job insecurity? If anything, they’re going to start panic selling to get out while they can. Crypto was on the brink of completely collapsing last Thursday after Tether rapidly declined. Y’all are done.

Breh the number of wallets and holders have gone up. Coinbase stock dropping has nothing to do with bitcoin holders. Their stock is dropping cause all of the stocks and tech stocks are dropping due to inflation and interest rates going up.

At the end of the day there are more investors world wide in Bitcoin, more wall street, more large corporations and more people buying bitcoin. As I said in this thread before there has been no investment in the last 12 years (stocks, real estate, bonds, gold and etc) that has performed as well as bitcoin....nothing.

Bitcoin even with it falling from 69K and at 30K is still worth more than its 2017 high of 19K. We are 2 years away from the August 2024 halving event and I can guarantee you that by spring 2025 that the value of bitcoin will be more than its 2021 high of 69K.

 

[lib123]

Breh the number of wallets and holders have gone up. Coinbase stock dropping has nothing to do with bitcoin holders. Their stock is dropping cause all of the stocks and tech stocks are dropping due to inflation and interest rates going up.

At the end of the day there are more investors world wide in Bitcoin, more wall street, more large corporations and more people buying bitcoin. As I said in this thread before there has been no investment in the last 12 years (stocks, real estate, bonds, gold and etc) that has performed as well as bitcoin....nothing.

Bitcoin even with it falling from 69K and at 30K is still worth more than its 2017 high of 19K. We are 2 years away from the August 2024 halving event and I can guarantee you that by spring 2025 that the value of bitcoin will be more than its 2021 high of 69K.

You can't guarantee anything as far as future returns. Yes, Bitcoin has more investors. But the number of active investors is rapidly declining, faster than anticipated. That's why I referenced Coinbase. Most people bought at or near the top. Most of them are not going to throw more money at it. Especially since many opened new accounts with free government stimulus money.