And here's EW:
Best Picture:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
There is no shortage of high-quality films for voters to choose (
Room,
Creed). In recent years, voters have nominated eight or nine films, so even worthy films like
Brooklyn, Sicario, or
Straight Outta Compton might not make the final cut. Though
Star Wars: The Force Awakens is already the highest-grossing film ever and riding a wave of nostalgia, it’s also a sequel that didn’t do much to reinvent the genre and sequels are often ignored by the Academy in this category.
Best Director:
Alejandro G. Inarritu (
The Revenant)
Tom McCarthy (
Spotlight)
Adam McKay (
The Big Short)
George Miller (
Mad Max: Fury Road)
Ridley Scott (
The Martian)
The Directors Guild
may have got it right this year. The only change we could foresee would be another nomination for Steven Spielberg for
Bridge of Spies, which would likely push Adam McKay out of the race. But that’s a big
if and momentum seems to be in
The Big Short’s favor.
Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio (
The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (
Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (
The Danish Girl)
Bryan Cranston
(Trumbo)
Matt Damon (
The Martian)
It feels like Leo’s race to lose. Despite top performances from all the other actors, the narrative surrounding DiCaprio seems to have taken hold:
It was really hard and I’ve never won. We will see if that stands the test over the next six weeks.
Best Actress:
Brie Larson (
Room)
Cate Blanchett (
Carol)
Saorise Ronan (
Brooklyn)
Alicia Vikander (
The Danish Girl)
Charlotte Rampling (
45 Years)
Focus has been pushing to classify Vikander’s turn in
The Danish Girl in the supporting category, but this is where she belongs. (Even the HFPA resisted the campaign pressure.) Don’t be surprised if the Academy follows suit. That said, should they nominate her performance for supporting, expect Jennifer Lawrence to nab a fourth nomination for her role in
Joy.
Best Supporting Actor:
Sylvester Stallone (
Creed)
Mark Rylance (
Bridge of Spies)
Idris Elba (
Beasts of No Nation)
Christian Bale (
The Big Short)
Mark Ruffalo (
Spotlight)
This is one packed category, and no one would be surprised or disappointed if Michael Keaton (
Spotlight) or Paul Dano (
Love and Mercy) sneak into the race. Rylance and Stallone seem like the two shoo-ins, and with all the heat on
The Big Short, Bale looks safe for his balls-out performance as the eccentric yet brilliant Dr. Michael Burry, who made millions when the housing market melted down.
Best Supporting Actress
Helen Mirren (
Trumbo)
Rooney Mara (
Carol)
Kate Winslet (
Steve Jobs)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (
Hateful Eight)
Alicia Vikander (
Ex Machina)
With the Producers Guild throwing some love towards
Ex Machina, this film could make an impression. As such, let’s call Oscar nomination morning a red-letter day for Vikander, with quite possibly two nominations for her two breakout roles. If she doesn’t land a nod for
Ex Machina, it’s probably only because Oscar shifted her performance from
The Danish Girl in to this category
Original Screenplay
Spotlight
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Sicario
This is one crowded category and voters easily could opt for
Straight Outta Compton, Trainwreck, or
Ex Machina over
Bridge of Spies and
Sicario.
Adapted Screenplay
Brooklyn
The Big Short
Steve Jobs
Room
The Martian
Carol could very well edge one of these five contenders with Phyllis Nagy’s stellar script clearly belonging in this category. Yet, in recent weeks, it feels like the film’s stock has dropped, just as the unconventional
Big Short has taken off.