Kwon Alexander, LB, San Francisco 49ers
The deal: Four years, $54 million with $27 million semi-guaranteed
Grade: D+
The 49ers have a habit of making signings like this under general manager John Lynch. They fall in love with a player and pay him like the player they imagine him being as opposed to the player the rest of the market is negotiating against. These moves generally don't work out. In 2017, it was
Malcolm Smith and
Kyle Juszczyk. Last year, it was
Jerick McKinnon, who missed all of his debut season with the team because of a torn ACL.
The closest example of this for the 49ers in the draft was with now-departed inside linebacker
Reuben Foster. After the 2017 draft, when the Niners traded down one spot with the Bears and drafted pass-rusher
Solomon Thomas, Lynch traded back into the bottom of the first round to draft Foster. Afterward, Lynch suggested that Foster was the third-highest player on their draft board and that if the Bears had taken Thomas with the second overall pick, he
would have chosen Foster third.
In the end, the rest of the league let Foster fall to 31, where the 49ers grabbed him for an ill-fated run at inside linebacker. The Niners
cut Foster in Novemberafter multiple incidents of domestic abuse, and while the 49ers had some success with
Fred Warner in the middle last season, it's not a surprise that they wanted to go after a long-term solution at middle linebacker this offseason.
C.J. Mosley will likely top that figure when he signs a free-agent deal later this week. It's difficult to believe the 49ers couldn't have found similar production at a much cheaper cost, especially as veterans such as
Zach Brown and
Brandon Marshall are expected to hit the market.
It's tough to judge Alexander's production in Tampa, in part because the defense around him was so bad. He missed 18 games over his four seasons with injuries and a four-game PED suspension, and while that's not ideal, it gives us a reasonable sample to see how the Bucs' defense performed with and without him on the field.
The Bucs were unquestionably better with Alexander around, but they weren't great in any scenario. Tampa's run defense allowed 4.3 yards per carry and first downs on 25.3 percent of rushing attempts without Alexander on the field. With him around, the Bucs gave up 4.1 yards per carry and allowed 24.1 percent of rushing attempts to turn into first downs. The league averages over that time frame were for 4.2 yards per carry and a 22.5 percent first-down rate on running plays.
Alexander was similarly helpful against the pass, although again, it wasn't enough to push Tampa into competency. The Bucs allowed a 108.3 passer rating and a 75.5 Total QBR with Alexander off the field, which is like turning every opposing offense into
Drew Brees. With Alexander, their numbers were still not great, but certainly better: Tampa gave up a passer rating of 95.3 and a Total QBR of 62.9 with him on the field.
The evidence suggests Alexander is a good linebacker. The 49ers are paying him like he's a threat to be a first-team All-Pro linebacker every season, and that just isn't borne out by Alexander's career. A torn ACL is hardly a death knell for careers in the modern NFL, but it wouldn't be shocking if he got off to a slow start next season, given that he tore up his knee in October. The 49ers will likely have a team-friendly structure on this deal, and I suspect that Alexander's $27 million in guarantees aren't fully locked in at the time he signs his deal, but this deal is solving a problem most teams address for far less.
:ninercry:
people say it's a team friendly deal but he fleeced us
brehs be gettin hot at them announcements for 4 years now , gotta let them contract details come out before you start losin ya shyt
