88m3
Fast Money & Foreign Objects
I can't seem to find a good chart but has it been this low in the summer in how many years?
Another Big Win For Putin!!!
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I can't seem to find a good chart but has it been this low in the summer in how many years?
Futuristic Eskimo
All Star
Since 10-11. From memory, I believe Brent has generally been trading in the 90-130 range for the past 3 years.
88m3
Fast Money & Foreign Objects
PMorgan Sees ‘Lehman Moment’ for Russia If Ukraine Deteriorates
By Jason Corcoran Aug 29, 2014 8:38 AM ET
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OctNovDec2014FebMarAprMayJunJulAug50.0052.5055.0057.5060.00* Price chart for JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. Click flags for important stories.JPM:US59.450.29 0.49%
Russia’s equity markets may face a “Lehman moment” if the Ukraine conflict deteriorates further, according to Alexander Kantarovich, head of research for JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Moscow.
“With the significant deterioration in the Ukrainian situation, markets may treat this as a Lehman-style shock,” Kantarovich wrote in an e-mailed report today. “Revisiting the post-Lehman lows would imply downside of 50 percent from an index perspective.”
Russia’s ruble-denominated Micex Index has fallen 6.6 percent this year. The stock gauge posted the worst monthly drop in July since 2012 as the U.S. and the European Union escalated sanctions targeting Russia’s $2 trillion economy after the downing of a passenger jet on July 17 over Ukrainian territory controlled by pro-Russian insurgents.
Related:
Kantarovich sees significant differences between the situation now and the 2008-2009 crisis because oil prices, Russia’s chief export, are holding up and an economic contraction “may not be that deep.”
Photographer: Alexander Khudoteply/AFP via Getty Images
The stock gauge posted the worst monthly drop in July since 2012 as the U.S. and the... Read More
The global economic crisis crimped demand for commodities, sending Urals as low as $32.34 a barrel on Dec. 24, 2008. The decline was a 77 percent drop from a high of $142.50 in July that year. Crude is trading at $94.96 a barrel today in New York.
Financial Stocks
The bank recommends reducing Russian investments because “markets may no longer assume a quick and easy resolution of the conflict and ‘worse before better’ seems a likely sequence.”
Financials are “particularly badly exposed” by sanctions and the broader economic situation, he wrote. The best defensive plays are exporters with no “unwanted political affiliations” as they will benefit from a weaker ruble, he said.
Kantarovich, who joined JPMorgan from MDM Bank in 2007, declined to comment further by telephone.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-29/jpmorgan-sees-lehman-moment-if-ukraine-deteriorates.html
By Jason Corcoran Aug 29, 2014 8:38 AM ET
69 Comments Email Print
Save
OctNovDec2014FebMarAprMayJunJulAug50.0052.5055.0057.5060.00* Price chart for JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. Click flags for important stories.JPM:US59.450.29 0.49%
Russia’s equity markets may face a “Lehman moment” if the Ukraine conflict deteriorates further, according to Alexander Kantarovich, head of research for JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Moscow.
“With the significant deterioration in the Ukrainian situation, markets may treat this as a Lehman-style shock,” Kantarovich wrote in an e-mailed report today. “Revisiting the post-Lehman lows would imply downside of 50 percent from an index perspective.”
Russia’s ruble-denominated Micex Index has fallen 6.6 percent this year. The stock gauge posted the worst monthly drop in July since 2012 as the U.S. and the European Union escalated sanctions targeting Russia’s $2 trillion economy after the downing of a passenger jet on July 17 over Ukrainian territory controlled by pro-Russian insurgents.
Related:
- Next U.S. Bank Bailout Could Come After a Cyber-Terror Attack
- U.K. Wants EU to Block Russia From SWIFT Banking Network
- Ukraine Invasion Claims Wipe Out Russia Bondholder Gains
Kantarovich sees significant differences between the situation now and the 2008-2009 crisis because oil prices, Russia’s chief export, are holding up and an economic contraction “may not be that deep.”
Photographer: Alexander Khudoteply/AFP via Getty Images
The stock gauge posted the worst monthly drop in July since 2012 as the U.S. and the... Read More
The global economic crisis crimped demand for commodities, sending Urals as low as $32.34 a barrel on Dec. 24, 2008. The decline was a 77 percent drop from a high of $142.50 in July that year. Crude is trading at $94.96 a barrel today in New York.
Financial Stocks
The bank recommends reducing Russian investments because “markets may no longer assume a quick and easy resolution of the conflict and ‘worse before better’ seems a likely sequence.”
Financials are “particularly badly exposed” by sanctions and the broader economic situation, he wrote. The best defensive plays are exporters with no “unwanted political affiliations” as they will benefit from a weaker ruble, he said.
Kantarovich, who joined JPMorgan from MDM Bank in 2007, declined to comment further by telephone.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-29/jpmorgan-sees-lehman-moment-if-ukraine-deteriorates.html
88m3
Fast Money & Foreign Objects
Ukraine Invasion Claims Wipe Out Russia Bondholder Gains
By Ksenia Galouchko and Natasha Doff Aug 29, 2014 2:45 AM ET
27 Comments Email Print
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Photographer: Francisco Leong/AFP via Getty Images
Pro-Russian fighter stand in Troitsko-Khartsyzk, 30 Km east of Donetsk, on Aug. 28, 2014.
U.S. assertions that President Vladimir Putin’s troops have crossed into Ukraine are rekindling the threat of sanctions and fanning a selloff in Russian assets.
Benchmark government ruble bonds due in February 2027 tumbled the most since March yesterday, wiping out this month’s gains, while the Russian currency slumped to an 11-year low versus the dollar. The cost of insuring the sovereign’s dollar bonds against non-payment with credit-default swaps soared to a five-year high relative to the world’s largest emerging markets.
Map: Tracking the Ukrainian Conflict
Sentiment turned after Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko said Russian troops have “de facto” entered his country, two days after he met Putin for talks. Russia is showing a “pattern of escalating aggression,” according to U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jan Psaki. The moves boost the case for sanctions, said Edwin Gutierrez of Aberdeen Asset Management Plc.
Standoff in Ukraine
“Investors are panicking,” Konstantin Nemnov, head of fixed income at TKB BNP Paribas Investment Partners in St. Petersburg, said by phone yesterday. “At the moment it’s impossible to say how this situation will develop as investors are pricing in the risks of new sanctions and are selling.”
August Détente
The yield on the 2027 OFZ notes increased 39 basis points to 9.72 percent yesterday, compared with 9.42 at the end of last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Russian assets climbed earlier in August after Putin pledged to do all he can to bring peace to Ukraine’s battle-torn east, reducing speculation that sanctions would be ratcheted up further.
The détente-mood crumbled as NATO Brigadier General Nico Tak said yesterday that Russia had masterminded a counteroffensive by Ukrainian rebels, with well over 1,000 of its troops operating inside Ukraine. They are helping insurgents open a second front in the south of the country, he said.
“Our base case is another round of sanctions, especially with this incursion,” Gutierrez, who helps manage $13.5 billion in emerging-market debt at Aberdeen, said by phone yesterday. “I just don’t see how the U.S. will not impose sanctions.”
EU leaders will discuss tougher penalties for Russia at an Aug. 30 summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday. The U.S. has a “range of options” to help Ukraine, with existing sanctions having an increasing impact on the Russian economy, Psaki said at a briefing yesterday.
‘Entry Point’
The cost of Russian credit-default swaps jumped 28 basis points to 254 basis points yesterday, the most since Aug. 8, CMA data compiled by Bloomberg show. The premium to an average from the three other leading emerging markets -- China, India and Brazil -- rose to 124 basis points, the most since 2009.
The yield on Russia’s March 2030 dollar bond was heading for an 11 basis point drop this month before it surged 27 basis points yesterday to 4.83 percent. The ruble sank 1.6 percent to 36.7500 per dollar, its weakest close since at least May 2003. The currency slipped 0.6 percent to 36.9585 as of 10:39 a.m. in Moscow today.
“Current eurobond prices are attractive and this could be used as an entry point,” Fedor Bizikov, amoney manager at GHP Group in Moscow, said by phone. “These levels look interesting if we don’t see any further escalation.” Bizikov said he didn’t buy or sell Russian Eurobonds yesterday.
Putin had hailed his talks with Poroshenko on Aug. 26 as “positive,” while continuing to deny any Russian involvement in a conflict that’s already claimed more than 2,000 lives.
After expectations the leaders would agree on a plan to de-escalate the conflict, “any optimism is difficult,” Aaron Grehan, a London-based fund manager who helps oversee $4.5 billion in emerging-market debt at Aviva Plc, said by e-mail yesterday. “We continue to assess developments very closely and assess whether the situation requires a reaction.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ms-wipe-out-august-returns-russia-credit.html
@Futuristic Eskimo @Domingo Halliburton
By Ksenia Galouchko and Natasha Doff Aug 29, 2014 2:45 AM ET
27 Comments Email Print
Save
Photographer: Francisco Leong/AFP via Getty Images
Pro-Russian fighter stand in Troitsko-Khartsyzk, 30 Km east of Donetsk, on Aug. 28, 2014.
U.S. assertions that President Vladimir Putin’s troops have crossed into Ukraine are rekindling the threat of sanctions and fanning a selloff in Russian assets.
Benchmark government ruble bonds due in February 2027 tumbled the most since March yesterday, wiping out this month’s gains, while the Russian currency slumped to an 11-year low versus the dollar. The cost of insuring the sovereign’s dollar bonds against non-payment with credit-default swaps soared to a five-year high relative to the world’s largest emerging markets.
Map: Tracking the Ukrainian Conflict
Sentiment turned after Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko said Russian troops have “de facto” entered his country, two days after he met Putin for talks. Russia is showing a “pattern of escalating aggression,” according to U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jan Psaki. The moves boost the case for sanctions, said Edwin Gutierrez of Aberdeen Asset Management Plc.
Standoff in Ukraine
“Investors are panicking,” Konstantin Nemnov, head of fixed income at TKB BNP Paribas Investment Partners in St. Petersburg, said by phone yesterday. “At the moment it’s impossible to say how this situation will develop as investors are pricing in the risks of new sanctions and are selling.”
August Détente
The yield on the 2027 OFZ notes increased 39 basis points to 9.72 percent yesterday, compared with 9.42 at the end of last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Russian assets climbed earlier in August after Putin pledged to do all he can to bring peace to Ukraine’s battle-torn east, reducing speculation that sanctions would be ratcheted up further.
The détente-mood crumbled as NATO Brigadier General Nico Tak said yesterday that Russia had masterminded a counteroffensive by Ukrainian rebels, with well over 1,000 of its troops operating inside Ukraine. They are helping insurgents open a second front in the south of the country, he said.
“Our base case is another round of sanctions, especially with this incursion,” Gutierrez, who helps manage $13.5 billion in emerging-market debt at Aberdeen, said by phone yesterday. “I just don’t see how the U.S. will not impose sanctions.”
EU leaders will discuss tougher penalties for Russia at an Aug. 30 summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday. The U.S. has a “range of options” to help Ukraine, with existing sanctions having an increasing impact on the Russian economy, Psaki said at a briefing yesterday.
‘Entry Point’
The cost of Russian credit-default swaps jumped 28 basis points to 254 basis points yesterday, the most since Aug. 8, CMA data compiled by Bloomberg show. The premium to an average from the three other leading emerging markets -- China, India and Brazil -- rose to 124 basis points, the most since 2009.
The yield on Russia’s March 2030 dollar bond was heading for an 11 basis point drop this month before it surged 27 basis points yesterday to 4.83 percent. The ruble sank 1.6 percent to 36.7500 per dollar, its weakest close since at least May 2003. The currency slipped 0.6 percent to 36.9585 as of 10:39 a.m. in Moscow today.
“Current eurobond prices are attractive and this could be used as an entry point,” Fedor Bizikov, amoney manager at GHP Group in Moscow, said by phone. “These levels look interesting if we don’t see any further escalation.” Bizikov said he didn’t buy or sell Russian Eurobonds yesterday.
Putin had hailed his talks with Poroshenko on Aug. 26 as “positive,” while continuing to deny any Russian involvement in a conflict that’s already claimed more than 2,000 lives.
After expectations the leaders would agree on a plan to de-escalate the conflict, “any optimism is difficult,” Aaron Grehan, a London-based fund manager who helps oversee $4.5 billion in emerging-market debt at Aviva Plc, said by e-mail yesterday. “We continue to assess developments very closely and assess whether the situation requires a reaction.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ms-wipe-out-august-returns-russia-credit.html
@Futuristic Eskimo @Domingo Halliburton
88m3
Fast Money & Foreign Objects
U.K. Wants EU to Block Russia From SWIFT Banking Network
By Robert Hutton and Ian Wishart Aug 29, 2014 6:00 PM ET
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Photographer: Francisco Leong/AFP via Getty Images
Pro-Russian fighters post a paper on the wall of a supermarket in downtown Novoazovsk,... Read More
The U.K. will press European Union leaders to consider blocking Russian access to the SWIFT banking transaction system under an expansion of sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine, a British government official said.
The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, known as SWIFT, is one of Russia’s main connections to the international financial system. Prime Minister David Cameron’s government plans to put the topic on the agenda for a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels today, according to the official, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.
“Blocking Russia from the SWIFT system would be a very serious escalation in sanctions against Russia and would most certainly result in equally tough retaliatory actions by Russia,” said Chris Weafer, a senior partner at Moscow-based consulting firm Macro Advisory. “An exclusion from SWIFT would not block major trade deals but would cause problems in cross-border banking and that would disrupt trade flows.”
Related:
The EU enrolled SWIFT as part of sanctions imposed on Iran in March 2012, prohibiting financial messaging providers from providing services to Iranian banks. SWIFT, based in Belgium, has to comply with EU decisions because the organization is incorporated under Belgian law. No one was immediately available for comment from SWIFT’s press office when contacted by phone yesterday.
Russian System
Faced with the risk of losing access to the network, Russia’s government has already drafted a bill to create a new Russian system for domestic bank transfers, Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev said on Aug. 27, according to the Itar-Tass news service.
Waging Financial War
The system transmitted more than 21 million financial messages a day last month, facilitating payments between more than 10,500 financial institutions and corporations in 215 countries, the organization said on its website.
“There’s no doubt that in the short term restricting Russian usage of SWIFT would be extremely disruptive to Russian financial and commercial activities,” said Richard Reid, a research fellow for finance and regulation at the University of Dundee in Scotland. “However, it may carry a longer-term downside, namely the likelihood that large chunks of Russian international payments flows would move to much less well monitored and measured financial channels and thus be beyond sanctions at any future point.”
Sanctions Round
EU governments widened sanctions on Russia to banks financing and advanced technology in July. Since then, fighting in eastern Ukraine has intensified.
Leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollandeare due to meet to try to forge a joint response after NATO reported a surge of Russian troops and advanced military equipment into eastern Ukraine.
EU leaders will “consider further measures” at the summit, Steffen Seibert, Merkel’s chief spokesman, said in Berlin yesterday. “I don’t want to go into detail on which measures those might be. Europe needs to deliberate that jointly.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-block-russia-from-swift-banking-network.html
By Robert Hutton and Ian Wishart Aug 29, 2014 6:00 PM ET
595 Comments Email Print
Save
Photographer: Francisco Leong/AFP via Getty Images
Pro-Russian fighters post a paper on the wall of a supermarket in downtown Novoazovsk,... Read More
The U.K. will press European Union leaders to consider blocking Russian access to the SWIFT banking transaction system under an expansion of sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine, a British government official said.
The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, known as SWIFT, is one of Russia’s main connections to the international financial system. Prime Minister David Cameron’s government plans to put the topic on the agenda for a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels today, according to the official, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.
“Blocking Russia from the SWIFT system would be a very serious escalation in sanctions against Russia and would most certainly result in equally tough retaliatory actions by Russia,” said Chris Weafer, a senior partner at Moscow-based consulting firm Macro Advisory. “An exclusion from SWIFT would not block major trade deals but would cause problems in cross-border banking and that would disrupt trade flows.”
Related:
- Ukraine Gets $1.4 Billion From IMF as Fighting Intensifies
- Ukraine Invasion Claims Wipe Out Russia Bondholder Gains
The EU enrolled SWIFT as part of sanctions imposed on Iran in March 2012, prohibiting financial messaging providers from providing services to Iranian banks. SWIFT, based in Belgium, has to comply with EU decisions because the organization is incorporated under Belgian law. No one was immediately available for comment from SWIFT’s press office when contacted by phone yesterday.
Russian System
Faced with the risk of losing access to the network, Russia’s government has already drafted a bill to create a new Russian system for domestic bank transfers, Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev said on Aug. 27, according to the Itar-Tass news service.
Waging Financial War
The system transmitted more than 21 million financial messages a day last month, facilitating payments between more than 10,500 financial institutions and corporations in 215 countries, the organization said on its website.
“There’s no doubt that in the short term restricting Russian usage of SWIFT would be extremely disruptive to Russian financial and commercial activities,” said Richard Reid, a research fellow for finance and regulation at the University of Dundee in Scotland. “However, it may carry a longer-term downside, namely the likelihood that large chunks of Russian international payments flows would move to much less well monitored and measured financial channels and thus be beyond sanctions at any future point.”
Sanctions Round
EU governments widened sanctions on Russia to banks financing and advanced technology in July. Since then, fighting in eastern Ukraine has intensified.
Leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollandeare due to meet to try to forge a joint response after NATO reported a surge of Russian troops and advanced military equipment into eastern Ukraine.
EU leaders will “consider further measures” at the summit, Steffen Seibert, Merkel’s chief spokesman, said in Berlin yesterday. “I don’t want to go into detail on which measures those might be. Europe needs to deliberate that jointly.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-block-russia-from-swift-banking-network.html
Domingo Halliburton
Handmade in USA
I was reading somewhere their food bans on imports from the west is causing price shocks at Russian supermarkets
Tommy Knocks
retired
chase Russia into the hands of the chinese thus giving more power east and thinking you're winning breh.
ltheghost
Payin Debts.... N40
It begins. It always starts as something financial then moves into blood.
88m3
Fast Money & Foreign Objects
No SWIFT = no wires TO OR FROM russia
Wow
Wow
Tommy Knocks
retired
lets see if Russia has the same crash as the EU. Ill wait.
Meanwhile Ill continue to live in a country that builds like army ants all around me every day.
88m3
Fast Money & Foreign Objects
lets see if Russia has the same crash as the EU. Ill wait.
Meanwhile Ill continue to live in a country that builds like army ants all around me every day.
Read the thread, Buddy.
China is a joke.
88m3
Fast Money & Foreign Objects
Solomon Black • 9 hours ago
Russians are just noise makers, in the top 160 European companies only 5 Russian companies appeared, this is a country that has twice as many natural resources than anyone, and has more population than anyone in Europe, yet they are dominated by Germany, France and Britain. Can anyone please tell me a recognizable Russian brand in the world, probably none. Russia is just a big gas station, in Forbes 2000 companies in the world, US had 564 companies, Japan had 212 and china had 200 companies, Russia didn't have more than 10 companies and yet they compare themselves to the US.
If California were a country it will have a bigger economy than Russia and more billionaires than Russia, this is how far they have fallen when a single state in the US have bigger economy than their entire country.
Russians are just noise makers, in the top 160 European companies only 5 Russian companies appeared, this is a country that has twice as many natural resources than anyone, and has more population than anyone in Europe, yet they are dominated by Germany, France and Britain. Can anyone please tell me a recognizable Russian brand in the world, probably none. Russia is just a big gas station, in Forbes 2000 companies in the world, US had 564 companies, Japan had 212 and china had 200 companies, Russia didn't have more than 10 companies and yet they compare themselves to the US.
If California were a country it will have a bigger economy than Russia and more billionaires than Russia, this is how far they have fallen when a single state in the US have bigger economy than their entire country.
Tommy Knocks
retired
Did you get that off the news?
They're always right, just like Mike Brown broke Wilson's orbital bone. LOL
88m3
Fast Money & Foreign Objects
Did you get that off the news?
They're always right, just like Mike Brown broke Wilson's orbital bone. LOL
I guess you can go off-topic?
My trust in the media is pretty limited.