Analysis: Here's Why I Think Kamala Harris Will Win (Not Based On Current Polls)

[Bigwhite2498]

1-11 are not opinions; they're facts based on previous elections.

#12 is a question that we don't have a clear answer to, but has to be taken in context of 1-11.

1. Did Trump build a voting coalition** large enough to win the presidency in 2016? Yes (by a small margin.)

2. Did Trump either maintain or grow his voting coalition in 2018? No and no.

3. Did Trump's voting coalition shrink in 2018***? Yes (by a small margin.)

4. Did Trump build a voting coalition large enough to win the presidency in 2020? NO.

5. Did Trump either maintain or grow his voting coalition in 2022? NO and NO.

6. Did Trump's voting coalition shrink in 2022? YES.

7. Did Democrats either maintain or grow their voting coalition in 2018? Yes and yes.

8. Did Democrats' voting coalition shrink in 2018? No.

9. Did Biden/Harris build a voting coalition large enough to win the presidency in 2020? Yes (by a small margin.)

10. Did Biden/Harris either maintain or grow their voting coalition in 2022? YES and YES.

11. Did Biden/Harris' voting coalition shrink in 2022? NO.

12. Last question: do you think Trump's voting coalition has grown significantly since 2022?

**-Voting coalition = people who were convinced to vote for a candidate, and actually did so.
***-Referring to mid-term election results.

In my opinion, taking questions 1-11 into consideration, I think Harris has it. Trump has only won one election, and even then it was by a slim margin.

This race won't be a landslide for Harris, but I don't think it will be close.

Everything you said was wrong dumb ass nikka

 

[Artfull Dodger]

How do you explain that 5,000,000 vote gap?

 

[Black Panther]

You don’t understand my story and honestly I’m not here to argue or repeat anything I’ve said about her. Again I’ve had to interact with the peoples she’s been with and she’s personally negatively impacted my life more than any trump policy or presidency so she’ll forever be a mortal enemy of mine.

I feel the same way about Trump.

I lost a church community and many of my friends because of that fat fukk, and my sister almost died as a direct result of how bad he fumbled the COVID response.

I'm biased as hell against Trump, but I'm honest about it. Apparently to many of the naysayers who came in this thread, that makes me a "shill".

 

[Jazzy B.]

You actually think WHITE AMERIKKKA want a HINDU woman running the nation?

 

[DEAD7]

 

[#BOTHSIDES]

I'm pretty sure she will.

 

[Black Panther]

Everything you said was wrong dumb ass nikka

-Joined in 2022
-Named "Bigwhite2498"
-Never interacted with you before
-Overly comfortable calling me "nïgga"

And of course, getting dapped up by Coli militants

 

[Bigwhite2498]

-Joined in 2022
-Named "Bigwhite2498"
-Never interacted with you before
-Overly comfortable calling me "nïgga"

And of course, getting dapped up by Coli militants

Because they know I’m black you dumb ass. I literally verified it on here. Typical of you super liberal clowns

 

[Black Panther]

I'm curious: was it a bad campaign, or the fact that she's a nonwhite biracial woman?


Not mutually exclusive but I have a hard time believing it's both.

 

[Black Panther]

Because they know I’m black you dumb ass. I literally verified it on here. Typical of you super liberal clowns

Negged and ignored.

Clown that.

 

[Thavoiceofthevoiceless]

I'll give you and @Tair props OP.

@I Really Mean It has been no where to be found outside of lurking in threads and @Elim Garak is too scared to post as well and only been reacting to threads since the election. Both had a lot to say leading up to the election, but now to scared and bytchmade to post and stand on what they said.

At least you two are still posting and not ducking your own threads.

 

[Secure Da Bag]

This race won't be a landslide for Harris, but I don't think it will be close.

Bast was not with you, breh.

 

[Uachet]

I'm curious: was it a bad campaign, or the fact that she's a nonwhite biracial woman?


Not mutually exclusive but I have a hard time believing it's both.

It was both. She was a non-White women who ran a very poor campaign. She could only articulate herself well on the issue of abortion. Every other issue she was unable to give concise answers, avoided answering, or used synonym laced word-salads to explain her positions.

Inside word about her campaign came out that it was unorganized, she did not read her briefings, and she did not like to be shown up by anyone who seemed to be smarter than her. She also exposed her poor sportsmanship and immaturity by being unwilling to walk out on that stage at Howard and speak to all of her supporters.

Now while much of that above can be stated about Trump too, the problem is she is again a non-White woman exhibiting these negative characteristics and no amount of celebrity endorsements or mini-concerts were going to overcome them. Add in that she is in the party that presides over this economy, that is harming blue collar workers and was unable to articulate a viable solution to fixing the economy. So they also voted against her.

Oh, and in the end, abortion was not a powerful enough catalyst to encourage White women to vote for her in mass. Trump still got a huge portion of the White women vote. Something I warned you could be a possibility in this very thread.

 

[Black Panther]

Bast was not with you, breh.

The gods of Olympus gods of Wakanda have abandoned me.

 

[Black Panther]

I'll give you and @Tair props OP.

@I Really Mean It has been no where to be found outside of lurking in threads and @Elim Garak is too scared to post as well and only been reacting to threads since the election. Both had a lot to say leading up to the election, but now to scared and bytchmade to post and stand on what they said.

At least you two are still posting and not ducking your own threads.

That's because me being a "shill" is a narrative pushed by TLR contrarians who pretend as if they "knew" this was going to be the outcome.

It's not as if anything I said could change larger voting trends, or how Harris ran her campaign. In my opinion, what we saw this election was simply America showing its true face.

I still believe Harris ran a good campaign within the time she was given (which I should remind everyone was approximately 3 months.) The shift from Biden to Harris could have been much, MUCH worse.