Long Live The Kane
Tyrant Titan
Interesting. From the article
Thanks to NBA tracking data, we now know how many miles an NBA team covers in a given season dating back to the 2013-14 season. Fundamentally, this is a very good measure of league-wide physical load. Over the past ten seasons, teams have gone from covering, on average, 1,384.1 miles per 82 games to 1,492.3, and as of a few days ago, the league average was on pace to hit 1,528. However, this leaves us with a predicament. Yes, players are covering more ground, but load management has been around longer than the tracking data. Thankfully, I found two bellwether statistics that will allow us to take a glimpse into the past and how much has changed over the past 45 years.
On offense, the league-wide pace had a linear correlation to offensive miles covered of 0.935, and on defense, the league-wide 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) came in at 0.903. This makes sense, pace measures how many possessions in a game, or how many times a team goes up and down the court, and 3PAr is an excellent proxy for how much ground a defense has to cover.
With that discovery, I simply added pace and 3PAr multiplied by 100 to create “Pace + 3PAr”. And much to my delight, the metric had a linear correlation of 0.935 to the average distance covered. When you find a linear correlation this strong, you know you’re onto something. Using a linear forecast model, I calculated how many miles teams covered on average dating back to 1980 based solely on league average pace and 3PAr. While these figures are not exact, there is a high likelihood that the overall trend is accurate, and the results are staggering.
So in other words they don’t have actual data for this before 2013, and the hypothetical data they extrapolated from stats don’t actually definitively tell us shyt but what we already know…. The modern game is a 3 point spam fest