I thought I'd do 3 of these threads over the next week or so, one for PG, one for wings, and one for bigs (which are the three position classes in the modern NBA).
The warriors have a roster with plenty of needs for young talent on it. Right now, there are only two things I'm confident about with these two draft picks: they are unlikely to draft a pure center (they have Wiseman), but could really use a complimentary big man, and they are unlikely to draft a pure guard (they have Poole) but a combo guard / wing makes a ton of sense.
Fortunately, the way the lottery looks right now, the best available players aren't duplicative of Wiseman or Poole. That's a good thing.
First assumption: Cunningham, Mobley, Suggs, Green, and Kuminga go off the board with the first five picks, in some order. I think the top four picks are locked in (Cunningham, Mobley, Suggs and Green) in some order, and I think the odds that Kuminga goes fifth overall shot up when the lottery selections were announced. Orlando has a perfectly Kuminga sized hole in it's roster. Scottie Barnes at that selection duplicates what you already have in Jonathan Issacs and WCJ, and Keon Johnson duplicates what you have in Fultz and RJ Hampton.
I think it someone currently outside the top 5 picks is jumping into the top five, the two most likely candidates to do so are Scottie Barnes and Keon Johnson.
Once you get outside the top 5 prospects, there are 3 players I have rated at the very front of that next tier: Barnes, Johnson and Moses Moody.
I don't see a PG being picked at #7 overall, since I don't think the value is there, as the 3 best players who might be available are wings/forwards. At #7 overall, take the best available player.
However, there is only one PG in that next crop of players after the top 5 prospects: Davion Mitchell, who I personally do not like, but who I don't think falls out of the top 12 picks.
He assuaged some of my concerns about his size by measuring a wingspan of 6'4.5. His height being less than 6'2 doesn't really matter, his wingspan was at the high end of what I thought it was. His size is basically what CP3's size was coming out for the draft. It won't be an advantage for him in the NBA, and he'll have to alter his game due to his lack of size (to account for much taller, longer defenders than he saw at the college level, the adjustment for him will be bigger than it will be for someone who was really big at the college level), but he can succeed at that size.
I want to re-iterate something else I said before about his shooting splits. I definitely came off too harsh before about his potential. I think he can be a really good shooter at the NBA level. I don't see him ever matching his 44% from 3 in his last college year, but I think he can reach that 36% - 40% from 3 range. His lack of size will make it harder for him to get his shot off against pro defenders, but I would urge caution.
His meteoric rise as a three point shooter in his final college year, with a corresponding decline in free throw shooting every single year he was in school, is a red flag. A red flag doesn't mean you don't take a player, a red flag just means you put extra scrutiny into doing your homework on that player, and you'd better be sure about his shot.
Any player whose college shooting splits are like Davion Mitchell's splits are has some questions to answer. His free throw shooting percentage declined every single year. You just don't see that from players whose shooting is improving. I have to question whether that 44% from 3 was just a career outlier year.
Now, that being said, there might well be a perfectly logical explanation for why his splits played out the way they did. That's why you have to ask questions and interview people to find out what was going on. I have a hard time believing that because falling free throw rate is not something that's dependent on role; hitting more free throws is pretty much a universal good, with no downside in the sport of basketball. Still, ask questions, and don't take things at face value.
The one strong selling point for me with regards to Mitchell is his age. He is 23 years old, but that's a good thing. He's a good 10 years younger than Steph, and that's plenty of time to come in as a backup, and transition into a starter, and have a very long career as a starter. The age is not a problem, and my preference is to take one win-now player in the lottery and one player to develop for the future.
At the end of the day, I don't see the warriors drafting Mitchell #7 overall, I think Barnes, Johnson and Moody are too talented, and two of those three players will be there at #7.
What about #14 overall? I think Mitchell will probably be off the board by that time, but if he's somehow still around, I'd say absolutely yes at #14. He'd be a reach at #7, but a steal at #14.
Let's consider the situation where he's gone at #14. One of the players I mentioned liking before, Tre Mann, probably had his draft stock crushed by the combine measurements. Mann came up short, with a wingspan that measured less than Mitchell's.
One player who really helped himself at the combine measurements was Nah'shon Hyland of VCU. He measured in at 6'2 with a 6'9.25 wingspan. That's nearly the identical frame as Marcus Smart. I don't think Hyland is a plus NBA athlete like Smart was on draft day, but that frame, and having one good NBA skill (3 point shooting) will help his stock a lot. He's not a lottery level talent, but don't be surprised if he goes earlier on draft day than you think (top 20 is a good bet).
I think that Jalen Johnson, Franz Wagner, Kai Jones, Corey Kispert, Zaire Williams, and Josh Giddy are the six best players who might be available at that pick #14 range. I'd bet that Kispert doesn't fall past the Pelicans at #10, since he seems to be exactly what they need.
Of those six players, Josh Giddy is the only PG. I think that, five years from now, there's every reason to think that Giddy turns out to be the second best PG from this class (behind Cunningham) but it is going to take time, and there's no guarantee you'll ever get anything. He's not a plus NBA athlete, and he's got a thin frame. He doesn't turn 19 until October 10th. This will take time, and we're not talking a season or two, we're talking two+ years. His shot is streaky, his free throw shooting is. . . not great for a guard, and there are limitations to him. Serious ones.
However, his feel for the game is elite, his BBIQ is top-notch, and he makes his teammates better. In other words, he offers a lot of size (6'8), is an elite passer/playmaker, is not a great athlete, is underdeveloped physically, and played last year in Australia. I will resist the obvious comparison here, and you can insert it on your own.
I'm probably not taking Giddy at #14, even if I think his ceiling is the highest of the potential picks at that selection. I'm passing because the rawness aspect of him means it's uncertain whether we'll ever get a ROI. Two years is a lifetime in the NBA, and I'd rather take a guy with a high ceiling to develop at #7 overall, and take someone who can help now at #14, that's mostly because of how the board falls.
That's PGs, I will post a similar topic on wings and bigs in the coming weeks. Hope to generate some good discussion before the draft.
