A war with China wouldn't be as simple/easy as folks think

[IIVI]

Honestly, a pretty informative thread:

This is both tangential and anecdotal, but I still think it is relevant to this discussion.

I have worked as a scientist in the US defense industry and in US universities. In many areas, China is ahead in terms of science. They produce high quality work at an exceptional rate. For example, the first observation of the Quantum Anomalous Hall Effect (QAHE) was in China, the theory was developed by a Chinese scientist. Then, the first observation of the QAHE in an intrinsic magnetic topological insulator was in China. I always worry that Chinese scientists will beat me to the next, newest result and they have in the past, twice. (In my experience, they do this by sacrificing any notion of work-life balance, mental health, or fair treatment of workers, but that's a different conversation.)

My feeling is that China is ahead of us in my field of quantum materials. There may be an exception for some groups in MIT, Berkeley, etc., but even then, it's so close. Especially considering that at top US universities the groups are often made up of Chinese nationals. I've worked in a US lab where I was the only one who wasn't a native Chinese speaker. Of course, these results are at least a decade from being integrated into defense systems, but if they are beating us to the first scientific result (TRL 1) then they have an advantage in beating us to the final implementation (TRL 9).

One shred of hope is that physical science today is very much an investment of diminishing returns, so it's the worst time for them to pull ahead. Even small results take hundreds of thousands of dollars of investment, after millions in start-up costs. Then those results may never be useful. Compare this to the earlier ages of technology when the transistor, computer, and networks were made. Yes, they also were investments, but those investments paid huge dividends and created a technology moat of high-value businesses and products that will be challenging to overcome. That said, I still think it's only a matter of time. They passed us in manufacturing, in batteries, in solar panels, etc. it's only a matter of time until the moat we inherited is completely gone.

Curious about your take from the US. I work at an institute in Germany, and similarly at my institution Chinese nationals are overrepresented - heavily so in data analysis and machine learning particularly.

(The informatics group leader I used to work for has save for a single postdoc transitioned his entire department to Chinese staff, and it's an open secret that this is because he can push them beyond the tolerance of westerners)

Thing is, I've been involved in Chinese social circles on and off for much of my life. Privately many of these staff are unhappy. They're not stupid. They know they're being exploited for their patience, that outside the lab many Europeans seem dismissive (or outright hostile), and that every election sees more of the vote go to closeted ethnonationalists. I've repeatedly heard people say that their opinion of the west has degraded since they've moved here, and the top reasons given for continuing to stick around are (1) to finish out contracts and (2) economic turbulence back home. That's pretty much it. Indeed one of the most popular conversations is which other countries we plan to apply in after finishing up here, and why.

Setting aside that 'the Chinese' include friends and family: based on my own very limited viewpoint, but having heard similar stories from around the world, I worry that we may be creating a situation where we ('the west') invest our computational expertise into cohort after cohort of Chinese nationals, while simultaneously hitting them with push factors to take their skills and return home. If the Chinese nationals at our institute returned home en masse it would literally core out our analytical department overnight. Unless our institute is a freak anomaly... well, it's a major vulnerability looking forward.

All that said, China’s tech advancements are crazy but I think a big problem for them is how fast they may be automating some of their population out of a job.







All great tech, but what are the implications?

We’re talking hundreds of millions of people in that country taking a hit to A.I and smart robots or iRobots. Economically that’s going to be something to deal with. In a non-nuclear, conventional war with invasions that does make a difference (unless their robots can shoot guns). You think that country isn’t going to replace their citizens with robots on the job on a large scale? Their government treats their people like any other on the planet.

Conventional war I think America gets a Pyrhicc victory because experience and citizens that’d provide more resistance.

 

[King]

Setting nukes aside I'm not so sure China would be as tough to take on. Not that I want any of this to happen but one thing I'll say about the U.S. military is it's constatly involved in battles, not exerecises actual battles. China's military for the most part is not really battle tested and that can be the difference maker if we are talking boots on the ground. There are other factors you have to think about though such as where the fight it is located like say Taiwan then logistics can be a huge advantage.

Edit I think China's biggest advantage is number of troops they could supply. Kind of like the Ukraine/Russia war where Russia just has way more people it can throw in the meat grinder to outlast the much smaller Ukraine.

The number of troops is EXACTLY how Russia defeated Ukraine.

When it comes to attritional warfare - do realize they are a population of over a billion versus our measly 100 million.

Also note that most people in the military are in it for social reasons (healthcare, benefits, etc.), not defense reasons.

China would adapt way faster than Russia. They would literally treat the war like training and battle test the ranks. Only the strongest would lead and survive. Then they'd turn their entire state industry to defeating the US.

Beyond maybe some superficial gains, we'd be food almost immediately 10x over.

Also keep in mind that most modern warfare is drone warfare (developed in Russia/Ukraine). Troops are mainly used to move in and secure the perimeter. The real fight is with the drones, which China has an extreme production capacity over the US.

 

[Uachet]

Yeah it most likely is fake propaganda spread by US intelligence.

How about I give you a source you'd appreciate, negroliberal?

Lifting 800 Million People Out of Poverty – New Report Looks at Lessons from China’s Experience

Over the past 40 years, China has lifted nearly 800 million people out of poverty, accounting for more than 75 percent of global poverty reduction in the same period, according to a new report released on Thursday.

www.worldbank.org

Your source is older than my source. Mine is from 2024, yours is from 2022. So you will need something more recent.

Also, I see you resort to insults when your claims are challenged. That is pretty pitiful of you.

 

[Uachet]

1, The number of troops is EXACTLY how Russia defeated Ukraine.

2. When it comes to attritional warfare - do realize they are a population of over a billion versus our measly 100 million.

Also note that most people in the military are in it for social reasons (healthcare, benefits, etc.), not defense reasons.

3. China would adapt way faster than Russia. They would literally treat the war like training and battle test the ranks. Only the strongest would lead and survive. Then they'd turn their entire state industry to defeating the US.

4. Beyond maybe some superficial gains, we'd be food almost immediately 10x over.

Also keep in mind that most modern warfare is drone warfare (developed in Russia/Ukraine). Troops are mainly used to move in and secure the perimeter. The real fight is with the drones, which China has an extreme production capacity over the US.

1. Russia has not defeated Ukraine yet. In fact, Russia was losing troops like crazy from poor equipment, training, and logistics.

Russia Is Losing the War of Attrition​

Ukraine is not on the verge of collapse. That makes the Trump administration’s decisions particularly shortsighted and tragic.

Russia Is Losing the War of Attrition

Ukraine is not on the verge of collapse. That makes the Trump administration’s decisions particularly shortsighted and tragic.

www.theatlantic.com

2. The US Population is not a measly 100 million. The US population is 346 million.

United States Population (2025) - Worldometer

Population of the United States: current, historical, and projected population, growth rate, immigration, median age, total fertility rate (TFR), population density, urbanization, urban population, country's share of world population, and global rank. Data tables, maps, charts, and live...

www.worldometers.info

If you mean military personel then. You don't fight a war with your entire population though. When it comes to actual personnel size, the US is number 3 behind China and India.

"As of September 2023, the US military consisted of 2.86 million people worldwide. The CIA reports that the US has the world’s third-largest active military by size, surpassed only by China and India in 2023."

How many people are in the US military? A demographic overview | USAFacts

Active-duty military numbers decreased by 64.3% from their peak in 1968, dropping off twice during the Vietnam War and after the Cold War.

usafacts.org

When it comes to military expenditures though, the US is number 1, and way beyond the other countries.

"Jul 4, 2024 — The United States is the country with highest military spending, spending more than three times the amount of China."

Military spending by country worldwide 2023 | Statista

The United States is the country with highest military spending, spending more than three times the amount of China.

www.statista.com

3. Where in the world are you getting this bit of intelligence? Are you a Chinese information officer?

4. Oh, you just make assertions without any real knowledge about what you are talking about it seems. Here, let me help you out with your ignorance.


Learn about its unmatched air power, naval dominance, and innovative defense systems, making it the worlds most formidable military force. The United States Military is widely regarded as one of the most powerful and technologically advanced armed forces in the world.

Where does U.S. Air Force rank in the world?

The Battle for Air Supremacy

Rank	Country	Aircraft Total
1	U.S.	13,209
2	Russia	4,255
3	China	3,304
4	India	2,296

The 10 Most Powerful Air Forces in the World

Who controls the skies today? This infographic ranks the top 10 countries with the largest air forces globally.

www.visualcapitalist.com

Which is the World’s Strongest Navy And Why?​

The title of the world’s strongest navy lies with the U.S Naval forces, with the tonnage of its active battle fleet surpassing that of the following 13 navies combined, including 11 of its partner countries. It also boasts the biggest aircraft carrier fleet in the world and is also the biggest navy in terms of tonnage, with China being the second largest.

Which is the World's Strongest Navy And Why?

Marine Insight - The maritime industry guide.

www.marineinsight.com

Top 10 most powerful countries in the world by military strength in 2024: Where does India rank?​

Top 10 most powerful countries in the world, by military strength (in 2024):​

Rank	Nation	Power Index	Total Military Personnel (est)	Military Spending
1	United States	0.0699	2,127,500	$831 billion
2	Russia	0.0702	3,570,000	$109.0 billion
3	China	0.0706	3,170,000	$227 billion
4	India	0.1023	5,137,550	$74.0 billion
5	South Korea	0.1416	3,820,000	$44.7 billion
6	United Kingdom	0.1443	1,108,860	$62.8 billion
7	Japan	0.1601	328,150	$53 billion
8	Turkey	0.1697	883,900	$40.0 billion
9	Pakistan	0.1711	1,704,000	$6.3 billion
10	Italy	0.1863	289,000	$31.6 billion

Top 10 most powerful countries in the world by military strength in 2024: Where does India rank?

Here are the top 10 most powerful countries in the world, as per their military strength, according to the Global Firepower Military Strength Ranking 2024.

indianexpress.com

 

[Uachet]

"Quoting myself"

So @King, Do you have any actual sources that support your position that the US would be food or is it really just a bit of ignorance about the US military might and wishful thinking on your part?

Oh yea, I forgot your drone assertion.

China’s drone modernization efforts close to ‘matching US standards,’ Pentagon report says​

Beijing is moving forward on its “comprehensive” UAV modernization efforts, as indicated by a number of increasingly modern systems designed for operations across theater and echelon levels, according to the new study.

Meaning, they are almost there, but not there yet.

China’s drone modernization efforts close to ‘matching US standards,’ Pentagon report says

Beijing is moving forward on its “comprehensive” UAV modernization efforts, as indicated by a number of increasingly modern systems designed for operations across theater and echelon levels, according to the new study.

defensescoop.com

 

[omnifax]

The number of troops is EXACTLY how Russia defeated Ukraine.

When it comes to attritional warfare - do realize they are a population of over a billion versus our measly 100 million.

Also note that most people in the military are in it for social reasons (healthcare, benefits, etc.), not defense reasons.

China would adapt way faster than Russia. They would literally treat the war like training and battle test the ranks. Only the strongest would lead and survive. Then they'd turn their entire state industry to defeating the US.

Beyond maybe some superficial gains, we'd be food almost immediately 10x over.

Also keep in mind that most modern warfare is drone warfare (developed in Russia/Ukraine). Troops are mainly used to move in and secure the perimeter. The real fight is with the drones, which China has an extreme production capacity over the US.

Noted but I still think having the tech is one thing but being able to use it effectively in battle is another. Experience counts for a lot.

 

[Dorian Breh]

@King telling on himself

@Uachet