A man buys a goat for $60, sells it for $70....

[PYRRHUS 88]

I get what you're saying

In round one you have a 33% chance of picking the right door and a 66% chance of picking the wrong door. If you switch doors in round two, you've essentially taken those 66% odds.

I not sure I buy it as anything more than a probability anomaly, but I do understand what you're saying.

Just to elaborate a little, choosing to switch in round 2 is either a guaranteed W or a guaranteed L, you just don't know which of those it is since the doors are hiding that information. Some all-seeing observer who knows what's behind each door will already be able to tell you whether switching is a guaranteed W or L as soon as you make your initial choice. Whether switching is a guaranteed L or a guaranteed W depends on your initial choice. If you chose the car initially (1/3 chance), switching is a guaranteed L. If you chose a goat initially (2/3 chance), switching is a guaranteed W.

 

[AllHolosEve]

When you're faced with the choice to switch or not, there are only 2 remaining doors. How can their probablities be 33% and 50%? They need to sum to 100%

Edit: I seem to have misunderstood what you were saying. I guess you mean both doors have 50% probability of holding the prize. That's still not correct though.


Think about it as if you can repeat this game a whole bunch of times, and let's say your strategy is to always stick to your original choice. So you put some cotton in your ears and don't even listen when the host offers you the chance to switch. Your initial guess is correct 1/3 of the time, so you win 1/3 of the time.

Now say your strategy is to switch every time. When do you lose? Only when you initially guessed correctly, cuz then you'd be switching away from the prize. Since you initially guess correctly 1/3 of the time, you lose 1/3 of the time and win the other 2/3 of the time.

I see what you mean but assuming you can't repeat this, you got one chance, not best of whatever... You're adding extra scenarios that don't matter... You can choose your door and you got a 50/50 chance left, not a best out of 10... It's a win or lose choice no matter the other factors...

 

[mag357]

If he started with 60 and sells for 70. He gained $10.

Once he buys it for $80 (assuming $60 was his startup money and he added the $10 profit to total $70) he’s taking a $10 loss.

Selling it for $90 puts him back where he started. Nothing gained.

Why are ppl saying $20? I must be missing something ... let me continue with the thread

 

[mag357]

Why are ppl saying $20? I must be missing something ... let me continue with the thread

Welp... I really had to find a pen and write that shyt down on paper
fukk... i think I lost 50 bux in time wasted on this shyt... fukk a goat..
But yea, they're right, breh...
After my calculations... its muthafukin 20bux

 

[KushSkywalker]

Anyone truly confused.

Take 9 pennies and pretend they're worth 10$ a piece.

Use a quarter as the Goat. Pick 3 spots on the table, 2 spots for buyer/sellers, one spot for the 'loaner'

Go through the problem one step at a time sliding the 9 pennies back and forth. When done slide the penny you owe back to the 'loaner' spot and see how many pennies you have.

You will have 8 pennies, when you started with 6, even though you paid back the loaner. Just try it.

 

[Eclipser]

Y'all are stupid as hell. Make random assumptions to support your answer, brehs

 

[R.E.N. Spells Ren]

Just to elaborate a little, choosing to switch in round 2 is either a guaranteed W or a guaranteed L, you just don't know which of those it is since the doors are hiding that information. Some all-seeing observer who knows what's behind each door will already be able to tell you whether switching is a guaranteed W or L as soon as you make your initial choice. Whether switching is a guaranteed L or a guaranteed W depends on your initial choice. If you chose the car initially (1/3 chance), switching is a guaranteed L. If you chose a goat initially (2/3 chance), switching is a guaranteed W.

Each time you try to elaborate you're only making it more confusing breh

But I agree, you're right. If instead of taking away one of the doors in round two, the host simply gave you the option of keeping that single door you picked or switching to take the two doors you didn't pick (and winning if the car is behind EITHER door) then we'd all obviously choose to take the two door option.

The only difference in the example in the vid is he's taking away a goat door instead of allowing it to be one of your two doors in the switch.

 

[ejthompson23]

He made $10

 

[FrederickDouglas]

He made $10

 

[PYRRHUS 88]

Each time you try to elaborate you're only making it more confusing breh

But I agree, you're right. If instead of taking away one of the doors in round two, the host simply gave you the option of keeping that single door you picked or switching to take the two doors you didn't pick (and winning if the car is behind EITHER door) then we'd all obviously choose to the two door option.

The only difference in the example in the vid is he's taking away a goat door instead of allowing it to be one of your two doors in the switch.

That's actually a great way of explaining it breh

 

[Brolic Scholar]

Tell another man to eat a dikk because you found out you are not a scholar on thecoli.com the hard way brehs

Eat a bag of dikks and choke to death on the last one. That better?

 

[Kal El]

And the second goat cost him $80. So he spent $80 for the goat and now has $80 which puts him at nothing gained. No matter how you slice it, if I put out $80 to make a profit and I end up with $80, why did I waste my time?

We’re not going to agree, so I’m done. It is what it is.

The irony of your username

 

[Pimp]

If I buy a stock for $60 then sell it at $70 then I buy the same stock at $80 And sell it for $90 then I made $20... There's no loan in the statement. If he didn't have $80 already how could he buy the horse for $80. This is a 5th grade question and y'all making it seem like it's some crazy hard shyt to figure out..

 

[ejthompson23]

Buy for 60 sale for 70= 10 profit...buy for 80, lost the 10 profit...sale for 90, made back the $10 profit...

 

[International Playa]

Breh didnt make any profit, he broke even