Cole Zwicker,
3 hours ago 0 7 min read
(BasketItaly Puntoit)
Being as one of the tenants of The Stepien is not only covering prospects in high school and college but also tracking how players perform and develop in the NBA, I wanted to start this “NBA Prospect Film Room” weekly series where I’ll break down a prospect’s game (or games) and build in analysis of what I’ve seen both pre and post draft from them on the floor. Given that Frank Ntilikina had his highest scoring output of the season Tuesday night against the Los Angeles Lakers, compiling 13 points playing a pivotal role in an overtime victory, and the fact he isn’t discussed as much as some other lottery rookies, he’ll serve as the pilot feature here. So without further ado, let’s dive in.
As is the case with roughly 90 percent of the league, shooting is the most important offensive skill, and while Ntilikina has gotten off to a rocky start in that respect, he’s started to find his range over the last three games going six-for-nine from 3.
I’ve always been a fan of Ntilikina’s mechanics, especially in catch-and-shoot situations when he has time and space. He doesn’t have the fastest release, but he compensates with a higher release point in conjunction with his size and length. Here, he shows some shot diversity shooting off the down screen where he hops into his shot on balance:
He’s only 5-for-14 on open catch-and-shoot shots in the half court this season, but last season for Strasbourg he was a dynamic 1.392 points-per-possession spot up shooter in unguarded situations (74 attempts), in the 84th percentile of international players. He has simple and repeatable mechanics off the catch, and in time could develop into a very consistent and plus spot shooter:
More pertinent to Ntilikina’s future lead guard projection is his pull-up jumper, which is more of a mixed bag on tape. We’ve seen him get nuclear hot off the dribble like in U18 FIBA play, but creating separation and shooting over contests here will be more of a challenge.
Ntilikina has actually been successful in this capacity thus far, mostly in the mid-range, sporting a .853 points-per-possession efficiency mark on 75 possessions this year, good for the 64th percentile.
His most fluid pull-up against the Lakers came in a pick-and-roll setting going left, where he was able to elevate over Ball’s contest using forward momentum:
Ntilikina’s size and length shines in the following clip as he’s able to shoot over Ball’s contest again:
Some of Ntilikina’s misses, usually without forward momentum, result in misses short of the basket:
He airballs the following step-back attempt where he struggles to generate enough power to get the ball to the rim (Corey Brewer also could have gotten a piece of this even though he wasn’t credited for a block):
Ntilikina’s mechanics off the dribble profile better to the mid-range than they do the 3pt line, but he should be capable at the latter especially with strength acquisition. I’m skeptical he has the shot-making fluidity and athleticism to separate to be a difficult shot-maker in self-creation settings, but he should have the threat of his shot in time to open up his floor game.
Shooting is going to be crucial for him especially because he lacks the dynamic burst and one foot explosion to get to the rim at this juncture (although he has physical development upside), but more on that later.
Those who saw Ntilikina more as a secondary ball-handler than a primary initiator entering the draft (myself included) fixated mostly on athletic/finishing limitations and scoring profile instead of a lack of passing acumen. He’s actually shown to be both a willing and capable passer, as expected, with plus vision who can make the two most important passes for a modern point guard: the pocket pass and the skip pass.
We’ve seen a lot of the pocket pass variety from Ntilikina this year without putting a great amount of pressure on the rim, but he shows aptitude here with timing and accuracy:
Knicks fans haven’t had a point guard who has made passing to Kristaps Porzingis a priority in recent history, so it’s refreshing that instead of forcing up a shot over this Ingram switch, Ntilikina patiently kicks the ball back to Kristaps who has a better individual matchup with the ability to shoot over the top of Kyle Kuzma:
Ntilikina’s most impressive pass against the Lakers combined impressive timing, vision and creativity, hitting O’Quinn on target on the dive:
He rarely gets all the way to the rim and into the teeth of the defense, but in flashes he definitely shows the vision in attack situations to locate teammates:
Transitioning to defense, defense in conjunction with shooting is still where Ntilikina has to hang his hat, and he already shows impressive flashes on the defensive side.
Here, Ntilikina shows good awareness to locate the ball running away from the play side following Hart, and he quickly rotates over to tag Julius Randle on the pick-and-roll dive. It’s his physicality and technique here that resonates most. Ntilikina has the toughness to mix it up with Randle and offer resistance in the post, finishing the play by walking Randle away from the basket while contesting vertically:
With a 7-foot wingspan, a physical mentality and technique like this, Ntilikina offers tremendous switch potential, especially as he continues to fill out frame wise.
Later in the game, we again see Ntilikina’s willingness to both take contact and finish plays. In the following clip, he stops the ball via a Kuzma drive in transition, absorbs Kuzma’s shoulder dip without getting dislodged completely out of the play, and most importantly finishes the play after getting knocked back by recovering to contest vertically:
In terms of perimeter defense, there weren’t a lot of plays that encompassed valuable takeaways for Ntilikina against the Lakers. He displayed good technique “weaking” Ball a few times on drives and already seems comfortable moving around on the perimeter. He doesn’t have dynamic lateral agility as it relates to foot speed or top-level reactionary athleticism, but he competes and does have plus instincts. He tries to duck under the Ball/Randle 1/5 pick-and-roll here, and either due to realizing he couldn’t get under or that Ball had started to set his feet to pull-up, he reacts quickly to the shot instinctively contesting (despite fouling):
Ntilikina was always a good bet to defend in plus fashion due to his combination of physical tools, mobility, competitiveness and instincts, but it’s really been his physicality and toughness that have stuck out early in the season.
Overall, I think the jury is still definitely out on whether or not Ntilikina has the dynamism off the bounce in terms of burst and the vertical explosiveness off one to be a high volume driving point guard. His raw finishing was one of his main detractions as a prospect, which is encapsulated in the following clip. Ntilikina rarely ever gets to the rim in the half court (17 attempts all season per Synergy, which combines both on and off-ball attempts), and when he does, he doesn’t show advanced craft:
You can see the lack of dynamic burst, lack of explosion off one and the lack of physicality in avoiding contact from Ingram instead of trying to carve out space with his frame. We see similar tendencies from Ball as a finisher, which is why a lot of people again projected both more as secondary ball-handlers in the half court. How Ntilikina improves as a finisher is one of the key areas of his game to monitor, because he does have the length extension to potentially thrive here.
Another key area to monitor is Ntilikina’s scoring aggressiveness via handling shake and keeping his dribble live operating especially in the middle of the court. Here, he kills his dribble way too early against the Randle switch, which results in a wild turnover (he has struggled with turnovers this year but not in this game specifically):
Even if Ntilikina doesn’t improve as a scorer and volume driver/finisher, there is still a lot to be excited about when it comes to his potential impact on a winning team as one of the premiere two-way guards in the class (if he shoots as expected) with some playmaking upside. He lacks the highlight appeal of more dynamic athletes and scorers, but there is still a lot to unearth here. Hopefully Ntilikina’s game against the Lakers was just the start.
*All stats derived from Synergy Sports
Link:
NBA Prospect Film Room: Frank Ntilikina vs LA Lakers - The Stepien
