Haven't read through the whole thread, but I think that it's not just the injury, but the fact that they didn't want to do this in Chicago at All Out. If Punk is hurt and they had to do a squash to get the belt off of him, the only thing that would be accomplished by doing it in Chicago is turning one of your biggest wrestlers (maybe even THE top guy in AEW per booking) into a mega heel in your home away from home. If I were Mox, there's no fukking way i would want to be sabotaged like that.
Now, I've also seen rumors that they're still doing Punk/Mox at All Out. If so, they better have something GOOD planned for the PPV. Otherwise, this is just baffling in terms of booking and timing.