When I was 24, my house got broken into, and I took a heavy loss in terms of money. You could call me a high risk victim, for obvious reasons. I was younger and less careful, but I wasn't really sloppy. Not many people came to my house. No bringing home strangers from the club. No after parties. Never strangers.
I never figured out who did it, but what I still always come back to the timing, that's what in hinges on for me. I got home that night around 11:00 or so, maybe 10:30, I was only home for under 15 minutes, I went out on one more errand, which probably took 45 minutes or so, when I came back, my house had been broken into, the person climbed up into my balcony, broke a window and left out of the front door. They were so quick they left high value items in plain sight, simply because it would have taken another -60 seconds or so.
Neighbors called the police, who showed up minutes later, but couldn't access the building, got another call and left. I arrived shortly after. So, that puts the time of break in, almost parallel to me leaving the house. Either they had fixed surveillance, (were watching my house for some period of time and saw me come home, but why not do it before, IE I wasn't home, and they had NO knowledge of my movements) or had just arrived, (which would be the most coincidental and least likely) or there was someone in the immediate neighborhood who watched me come, and watched me go, and decided to just do it right then.
To connect this to the Idaho murders, how did the suspect know who would be home? It was 2:00 AM or later when the killings happened. You would have to stay up, or be up already, in the area and ready to go. You don't just run into a house to murder someone (assuming this was pre planned, which may not be the case) not knowing if your target is even home? One of the women could have met someone and gone home, gone to an after party, how would he know for sure?
Social media: Which indicates he followed them, and was local at a minimum.
Fixed surveillance: (would have to be in a car, because it's freezing) waiting outside until he was sure he saw the target enter
An immediate neighbor with a view of the house: would be an easy way for sure
Or was the person in contact with one of the victims, or even to expand on that, invited over by one or more of the victims?
Someone who had been in the house multiple times, would have likely known the access codes, no signs of forced entry, or was in invited in, or broke in, through a way that could be closed on way out, an open window, but given the temp?
I have a lot of times on my hands this weekend, so forgive these think pieces, but I love the analysis of most things, but esp. crime.