Great analysis from Bread again in his mailbag:
What chances do you give Mikey Garcia to beat Errol Spence? And why is Spence so highly regarded with actually one elite win on his resume?
Bread’s Response: I give Garcia a 35% chance to win. Spence 65%.
I think Spence lacks an elite resume because no one can get the line up of PBC welterweights to fight him. Only Lamont Peterson was willing to step up. That’s not an insult on to anyone but it’s a simple fact. One PBC welterweight was willing to fight Spence and he has 24 fights and been a champ for almost 2 years. He couldn’t GIVE out a title shot.
So here is the thing. I give Spence credit just like I gave GGG credit. When you’re being ducked, the eye ball test that you put on display is too risky for your opponents. Maybe Mikey can change that like Kell Brook did with GGG. But as of right now I’m not going to pick apart Spence’s resume when I know for a fact he’s being avoided. You’re resume can only be criticized when you have the power to make a fight and you don’t.
I think Errol Spence is a killer. I think he keeps it simple which is the best way to do things. Spence keeps his hands up, he stays in position and he always uses a jab. Spence never forgets the body. I have never seen a fighter who had a great jab and great body attack that wasn’t a great fighter. If you think about that you will agree. Errol has both he just doesn’t get a chance in big fights. Now he has one.
Errol reminds me of a mix of Michael Moorer at 175. A young killer Hagler of the late 70s and early 80s and Mike McCallum with the constant body touching. Moorer and Hagler were converted southpaws so they had heavy lead hands. Errol actually has a quicker straight left than both.
Errol has ridiculous stamina and he does not allow you to clinch him. His gift is his pace. His attack is at the same cadence he trains at. Bam-Bam-Bam. It’s not Bip-Bop-Boom. It’s Bam-Bam-Bam. Constant hard shots with no let up. The beating he put on Lamont Peterson was impressive. I can tell Spence likes Peterson but in the ring he had no mercy. Spence is a killer and if you can’t hold him off he will EFF you up.
Spence also has a good IQ in applying his style. If you look at Jermell Charlo who has the same trainer as Spence. You see a huge difference in their craft. Charlo loads up and gets impatient and goes for kos. Charlo may hit harder than Spence for one shot, who knows. But Spence goes for the beat down. He doesn’t go for the risky stock. He goes for the sure CD with good interest rate. He jabs, he goes to the body, he closes distance. And the next point is big…
Spence does not care about being getting hit. I’m not saying Charlo is afraid to get hit because he brings it also. But I am saying that Spence is more willing to get hit therefore he doesn’t lunge in and try to get the fight over in a haste because he’s willing to pay the price to get to his man. He’s more comfortable bringing ass to get ass. Where as Charlo is looking for the big ko and when he’s not getting it because his workrate is lower he’s losing rounds. Spence rarely loses rounds because he’s always working towards his ko through attrition. By rarely losing rounds Spence is showing boxing ability. Spence is no joke my man.
As good as Spence is no fighter is perfect. Spence is not hard to hit especially early. Part of it is his style. He brings it. Part of it he’s just not a special defensive fighter. His defense isn’t poor it’s just not great. He doesn’t have great defensive reflexes like other come forward fighters like Chavez and Duran.
Spence is also not a speedster or overwhelming athlete. He’s athletic but it’s not special level athleticism. He doesn’t need it. Hagler didn’t have that either but against a freaky athlete we could see that exploited. Mikey Garcia is not a freaky athlete. Mikey is a skill guy.
This fight comes down to one thing for me. Can Mikey Garcia take the beating. And if so for how long? I’m not talking about being clipped that can happen to anyone. I’m talking about being tough enough to take Spence’s punishment and still trying to win. For however long Garcia can hold up we will see a great fight.
I looked in both of their eyes and let me tell you something. Mikey is ready and he’s not playing around with Errol. He’s coming to ko Errol. But Errol is equally as intense and ready. Errol knows he’s been denied the big fights and opportunities and he doesn’t want to lose to a smaller man in his 1st super fight. I expect brutality from both sides.