1/32
@t_blom
Software engineers are highly-paid farmers, tending their crops by hand.
We just invented the combine harvester.
The world is going have a lot more food and a lot fewer farmers in very short order.
2/32
@t_blom
I think this is true of doctors and lawyers too, but maybe a year or two later.
We're going to have an abundance of incredibly high-quality knowledge work at very low prices.
Instead of living off gruel, everyone's going to have bananas and kiwi fruit for pennies.
But the farmers will need to find something else to do with their time.
3/32
@Rujo_
What jobs did the farmers move to after the harvester was invented?
4/32
@t_blom
Bard.
5/32
@Maddy78988730
One myopic tweet, several coping replies. Good engagement farming, btw
6/32
@t_blom
🫡
7/32
@maceskridge
Did you have this take in 2022?
Is this take closer to being a reality now than then?
If so how and why?
8/32
@t_blom
The advances in coding models in the last 3 months are genuinely astonishing.
9/32
@inval1du5er
I don't understand why VCs are so obsessed with AI. Yes it makes no sense to write code from scratch when you have AI tools which have decent code generation for small to medium code snippet. But you can't prompt an AI to write the next gen database or next gen load balancer.
10/32
@t_blom
You can't *yet* prompt an AI to write the next gen database or next gen load balancer.
The mistake I think people make is reasoning about the capabilities of AI today, not where it's likely to be in 1-2 years.
11/32
@Pricodex
"Can someone please help me? Create a Y Combinator clone to take all their jobs!"
12/32
@t_blom
Several have tried
13/32
@thdxr
AI can already post better than this how come there's still demand for your posts
14/32
@julianjneuss
we’re entering the i, Robot era - fast.
one-man billion-dollar companies on one end, robots replacing low-end labor on the other.
you build or you’re replaced.
step 1: launch something that prints money solo.
step 2: move to a ranch, get solar, animals, weapons, and full autonomy.
step 3: wait for the collapse - while shipping v2.
15/32
@bnnccng
16/32
@crackyflipside
I think there will be a lot more people farming at home.
17/32
@0x_Reef
distribution.
18/32
@planetoftheweb
When we invented the spreadsheet, did we end up with more or less people ‘running the numbers’? i think in the long run, well have more, not less. And good programmers will still be highly sought after.
19/32
@gfodor
Analogies get in the way of thinking
20/32
@realstalecoffee
…the world is going to have a lot more because everyone will be given a combine harvester
21/32
@Object_Zero_
Nope, because software isn’t constrained by available land on the input side, and nor is it constrained by satiating hunger on the output side.
22/32
@babysoftluke
have you tried using this combine harvester?
23/32
@AdmireTheWeb
Basically any job that doesn’t require use of physical craft. How are city jobs still a thing?
24/32
@Digital_Reverie
Corn subsidies when
25/32
@rajathThinks
way more land/farmer
much higher productivity
26/32
@FJ000RD
Absolutely—AI might soon replace many junior-level roles, but unlike farmland, the internet isn't limited by physical space.
Instead of fewer farmers, we'll likely see smaller, agile teams creating more diverse products.
Less factory farming, more farmers' markets.
27/32
@BosonJoe
The growth in software companies will offset the decrease in need for programmers at any one company
28/32
@jikkujose
Though directionaly correct, I think the analogy breaks down comparing crops to software. Crops are atomic standardised primitives. Software on the other hand are super customisable, composite systems.
There is a possibility we invented printing press instead of a combine, leading to a Cambrian explosion of highly purpose built cost effective software, leading to mushrooming of super small software teams breaking up huge companies.
29/32
@uncertainsys
A lot more food is good
30/32
@Will7533
Not quite the same... Farmers have far fewer options. Software engineers, on the other hand, have massively more flexibility. For example, they can build solo projects-like one-person "magic farms"-that generate endless kinds of value (not just food). They're not limited by land or tools, and with Al, they don't even need much capital anymore. The number of ideas they can turn into real products is basically infinite now.
31/32
@Valuable
The analogy does have one mistake… it’s based on a fixed-growth mindset. With food there is a fixed amount of work to be done, we can’t consume unlimited food.
With software on the other hand, there is no real limit to how much software should be produced. There can always be more products and even more services.
I believe there will be more “farmers” than ever, we just made it so a single farmer can manage an entire farm all on their own is all.
As an entrepreneur I create work (which I delegate to coders), now I can create 10x as much work (I’m still going to be delegating it to coders). I have a list of hundreds of ideas, previously I could only pursue
a few a year, now I can pursue tens per quarter.
For established businesses which don’t have much room to grow, yes they will need “less farmers”… but for capitalism as a whole, there are virtually infinite products to make still. More food, but not less farmers.
32/32
@bweidlich
Real world farmers are constrained by land use. There is near infinite digital land to be farmed, even more so now with digital combine harvesters.
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196