But you can't generate daily ad revenue from views if it's blow out.
I'm trying to think of all the ways a horse race can be actually true.
1. Trump activates a lot of new voters again to match Harris's activation - doesn't seem like that is showing clearly in any data we have, but I guess it could happen on EDay.
2. Harris doesn't activate many new voters - But I think it's almost certain she is doing this based on the info we have.
3. A key part of the Dem coalition stays home at higher rates - I haven't seen any evidence of this, but maybe I missed something?
My rational mind is reading the data and last week state/local poll trending toward Harris, plus other data about women out voting men, lots of new female voters in the pool, etc., and thinking that the pollsters still haven't got the right screens and will miss to the right again.
But I could be missing any number of factors that make the horse race narrative the correct one. I just don't see it beyond "all the national polls and some of the state polls show a horse race."