2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread

[Reality Check]

The recent polls are frightening as hell but realistically is there any reason to think Kamala won't win MI, WI and PA?

Outside of one or two outlier polls, Wisconsin seems to be comfortably blue. I think the Walz pick basically sewed it up

Michigan momentum wise - union support, etc. Most factors seem to be in Kamala's favor.

PA is tighter than it should be but early voting numbers, 2022 results, Dems have only lost it once since 1992. I really don't see it flipping.

So fukkery and other wild cards like AZ,NV,GA aside.. MI/WI/PA feel fairly good to me still. And with that she wins.

Am I wrong?

This election to me seems like a combination of 2012 (with the polls being tight and Romney making preemptive plans for his administration) and 2016 (with Clinton's arrogance about winning and not realizing until it's too late she's actually been down).

The one true wild card is North Carolina. Unless the Black Nazi/Nude Africa vote is much higher than anticipated, I think Stein carries Harris across the finish line there.

 

[Big Jo]

This election to me seems like a combination of 2012 (with the polls being tight and Romney making preemptive plans for his administration) and 2016 (with Clinton's arrogance about winning and not realizing until it's too late she's actually been down).

Which is it? Because one went well for Dems and the other didn’t lol

 

[King Kreole]

Which domestic policies of hers do you disagree with?

On healthcare, I believe that healthcare is a human right and should be made available to everyone in this country, free of charge at the point of service. Kamala does not believe in this, advocating instead for modest improvements like "expanding and strengthening the Affordable Care Act" and "tax credit enhancements that are lowering health care premiums by an average of about $800 a year".

On economics, I believe that we are at levels of wealth inequality that are destabilizing to the social fabric of this country and producing immoral externalities like forcing millions of people to live in a state of indignity. So I support a taxation system that hikes taxes on the wealthy to a degree that makes it impossible for the level of wealth accumulation we've seen and disables the wealthy from buying political ends, and economic reforms that force subordination of corporations to the public good. Kamala doesn't believe in this, instead campaigning on "restoring middle class tax cuts like the Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit".

On violent crime, I don't believe that the existing policing system is designed to solve the endemic violence in this country, and should be radically reformed to promote community peace instead of serving as the state-sanctioned violent arm of capital. Kamala disagrees, and is touting the $15 billion given to local law enforcement. I also believe in a national gun confiscation project like a firearm buyback program, but Kamala disagrees, instead running on assault weapons ban and universal background checks.

On the immigration, I believe that if the American project is worth anything at all, immigration must be held up as a load-bearing feature of this society and the demonization of immigrants, legal and illegal, should be rebuked at every turn. Kamala disagrees, capitulating to the right-wing framing on this and adopting the Republican border plan.

On racial inequality, I believe in a program of reparations (which can take many forms, word to Ta-Nehisi Coates) and an honest reckoning of how deeply embedded white supremacy is in every structure of this country. Kamala disagrees, with seemingly the only tangential mention of racial inequality on her issues page is fighting to pass "laws that will enshrine voting rights protections, expand vote-by-mail and early voting, and more."

 

[CrimsonTider]

What’s clear to me is that while certain trends will hold this election - there is going to be a sort of political reorganization along gender/social/regional and class lines. The more I get out and talk to people, I realize that they’re considering politics in a way that wouldn’t even cross my mind. The way liberals created air America back in the day to counteract right wing radio - there needs to be an investment in the influencer sphere to combat right wing dominance in those areas - especially where young men are at. I be hearing people reference shyt that I thought was just random incel internet weirdo shyt.

I saw mad black people talking to me about their fear of immigrants and some brother talking about build the wall. My head started hurting.

It’s Fox News beating out all other news channels repeating itself. It’s just easier to feargmonger and grift than it is to speak with facts and nuance

One thing that I do think has changed is the militant and feminist talking point of blaming white men for everything that’s wrong with America has been used by republicans and republican adjacent yappers to rally incels and uneducated whites

 

[good pups]

this is really interesting on polling:

 

[King Kreole]

It's been years buddy, you can admit Warren ran a shytty campaign and is a bad politician. It's ok. I agree with her on a variety of things but she's...not good at this, and her campaign imploded on her own accord. Like Howard Dean was at one point, she's better off behind the scenes influencing policy than being front and center.

I don't think it was a "shytty campaign" given she led a crowded field for a spell, but I have no problem admitting she's a much better thinker than a campaigner. But I like ideas and policies so her campaign was admittedly made in a laboratory for me, and I'm not arrogant enough to assume the general public shares my predilections. Like I think Biden ran a dogshyt primary campaign in 2020 and he won, so it goes to show...

 

[iceberg_is_on_fire]

Economic anxiety they tell us.

Tariffs hurt his business. He's voting for Trump anyway

Donald Trump's call for sweeping tariffs is resonating, as protectionism gains steam in the US.

www.bbc.com

Tariffs hurt his business. He's voting for Trump anyway​

"I will vote for Trump even though he's going to hurt our company if he does what he says he's going to do," he said.

You can't possibly reach this type of voter.

 

[hashmander]

Economic anxiety they tell us.

Tariffs hurt his business. He's voting for Trump anyway

Donald Trump's call for sweeping tariffs is resonating, as protectionism gains steam in the US.

www.bbc.com

Tariffs hurt his business. He's voting for Trump anyway​

You can't possibly reach this type of voter.

reminds me of the small business owners who vote leave on brexit. they do it because when the pain starts they figure they can cry about it and get an exception for themselves carved out as a loyal supporter. it never works out that way though.

 

[the artist known az]

Economic anxiety they tell us.

Tariffs hurt his business. He's voting for Trump anyway

Donald Trump's call for sweeping tariffs is resonating, as protectionism gains steam in the US.

www.bbc.com

Tariffs hurt his business. He's voting for Trump anyway​

You can't possibly reach this type of voter.

That's because it's not about economics for him. It's all about putting the white race (white man) above all

 

[Outlaw]

On healthcare, I believe that healthcare is a human right and should be made available to everyone in this country, free of charge at the point of service. Kamala does not believe in this, advocating instead for modest improvements like "expanding and strengthening the Affordable Care Act" and "tax credit enhancements that are lowering health care premiums by an average of about $800 a year".

On economics, I believe that we are at levels of wealth inequality that are destabilizing to the social fabric of this country and producing immoral externalities like forcing millions of people to live in a state of indignity. So I support a taxation system that hikes taxes on the wealthy to a degree that makes it impossible for the level of wealth accumulation we've seen and disables the wealthy from buying political ends, and economic reforms that force subordination of corporations to the public good. Kamala doesn't believe in this, instead campaigning on "restoring middle class tax cuts like the Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit".

On violent crime, I don't believe that the existing policing system is designed to solve the endemic violence in this country, and should be radically reformed to promote community peace instead of serving as the state-sanctioned violent arm of capital. Kamala disagrees, and is touting the $15 billion given to local law enforcement. I also believe in a national gun confiscation project like a firearm buyback program, but Kamala disagrees, instead running on assault weapons ban and universal background checks.

On the immigration, I believe that if the American project is worth anything at all, immigration must be held up as a load-bearing feature of this society and the demonization of immigrants, legal and illegal, should be rebuked at every turn. Kamala disagrees, capitulating to the right-wing framing on this and adopting the Republican border plan.

On racial inequality, I believe in a program of reparations (which can take many forms, word to Ta-Nehisi Coates) and an honest reckoning of how deeply embedded white supremacy is in every structure of this country. Kamala disagrees, with seemingly the only tangential mention of racial inequality on her issues page is fighting to pass "laws that will enshrine voting rights protections, expand vote-by-mail and early voting, and more."

So essentially every point outside of immigration, Kamala’s policies are on the same path to where you think America should head but you don’t think they’re enough which proves my point. Lefties don’t think her policies are enough but fundamentally they agree her suggested policies are better than nothing at all.

 

[Reality Check]

Which is it? Because one went well for Dems and the other didn’t lol

Forgot to put in, Trump is essentially 2016 Hillary in this comparison

 

[taker597]

It's over for Adolph Trump

 

[good pups]

 

[6CertsAndAMovie]

Eh, there's nothing salient in the purported Harris agenda that would make Manchin or Romney blanch. The whole campaign is designed to make disaffected center right Republicans feel comfortable supporting her. She's not fighting for any structural change, she's making technocratic modifications to the existing system that has already ceded ground to the right on the big issues. Besides abortion, she's not talking about any big issues like universal healthcare or a major overhaul to the taxation system or or environmental catastrophe or reshaping the country or even increasing the minimum wage past the ask from last cycle. This is 3rd time in a row we're being faced with the "great fascist menace" and the end of democracy and all we're able to muster up is modestly lowering prescription drug prices and homecare benefits? Something doesn't add up here.

she doesn't have the senate, and her would-be executive branch power is being targeted by the supreme court. I personally believe it's the reason she not ceding regarding those privileges right now.

 

[Piff Perkins]

I don't think it was a "shytty campaign" given she led a crowded field for a spell, but I have no problem admitting she's a much better thinker than a campaigner. But I like ideas and policies so her campaign was admittedly made in a laboratory for me, and I'm not arrogant enough to assume the general public shares my predilections. Like I think Biden ran a dogshyt primary campaign in 2020 and he won, so it goes to show...

Candidates rise and fall in primaries, often after an increase in news coverage or a debate. I'm sure many of us remember the wild ride of the 2012 republican primary where a new candidate emerged monthly before people settled on Romney. I just think she's a terrible politician who turns people off even if they agree with her views.

Honestly I thought everyone ran a terrible campaign except for Biden, who ran an unimpressive campaign but a NORMAL campaign, which mattered. I think it's very clear that the party misread the room, spent way too much time listening to out of touch far left aides, and decided to run against the most popular president of our lifetimes. Biden ran on a "hey Obama is my friend" campaign and people settled for it when it became clear the other candidates were largely just running reactionary campaigns. Ironically one of Kamala's biggest weaknesses right now relates to the ridiculous positions she took during that primary to fit in with the "progressive" meta of that primary.

(I don't think Kamala is a particularly ideological person, beyond on crime and abortion. I think she's an extremely malleable politician and that has some advantages but it also has some big disadvantages, which is why this relatively short political campaign has benefited her so far.)