I don't think she will win but there's a small shot.
I guess the upside is that potentially her numbers can grow as she consolidates the coalition from 2020. You would have Obama more forcefully out there.
But I do not think she's winning NC, GA
AZ maybe
NV is a must-win.
She also needs to win WI, MI, PA which goes without saying
Like I said, Kamala needs to -
1. STAY on the abortion topic as much as possible and not let up
2. Pick a good VP with appeal to middle America
3. Destroy Trump in the debate
4. Position herself as at least somewhat more willing to push back on Israel (would help with Michigan and younger voters)
She still might lose even with all that, but if she does all of the above I'd like her chances better than Biden's at this point.