2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

[Json]

Im probably more left than everyone in this thread, and even I won't really care about politics polls until June or July.

Saying that, a lot of people shytting on @FAH1223 for sharing these polls and calling them shyt sound like mindless goodies.

If you don't care about a post or some information, don't react to it. Practice restraint.

I think what people are saying is these polls aren’t capturing what the conditions will be months from now. There’s no way to counter it because the polls are asking black and white questions.

Think about how many polls come out with most anticipated movies of 2023 vs what actually does well…the Flash, Aquaman 2, etc and what are we supposed to think of the poll? Was it wrong, nah, they lost interest, name id?

 

[mastermind]

think what people are saying is these polls aren’t capturing what the conditions will be months from now. There’s no way to counter it because the polls are asking black and white questions.

Think about how many polls come out with most anticipated movies of 2023 vs what actually does well…the Flash, Aquaman 2, etc and what are we supposed to think of the poll? Was it wrong, nah, they lost interest, name id?

I don’t disagree with this because I believe similar.

But that’s not what the people in this thread are saying. They literally don’t want any negative news on Biden. If the polls showed Biden up by a lot, many of the same posters would be saying “re-election lock!”

 

[Json]

I don’t disagree with this because I believe similar.

But that’s not what the people in this thread are saying. They literally don’t want any negative news on Biden. If the polls showed Biden up by a lot, many of the same posters would be saying “re-election lock!”

That’s true to an extent.

Cause the negative news people are presenting is to say Biden will lose. It doesn’t matter if Biden loses Muslim support in Virginia. They are saying with minimal evidence( Muslims won’t vote) in Michigan which again is 10 months away.

No one knows how Georgia will play out in 2024. How the local races will and won’t play into voting patterns because most of us are armchair quarterbacking from a different state.

 

[Robbie3000]

I don’t disagree with this because I believe similar.

But that’s not what the people in this thread are saying. They literally don’t want any negative news on Biden. If the polls showed Biden up by a lot, many of the same posters would be saying “re-election lock!”

Can’t speak for everybody, but the reason I have to speak out on these polls is because polls have been useless since the 2016 election. I still remember NYT front page saying Hilary had an 80% chance of winning the morning of Election Day 2016. Since then, the polls have been wrong about every midterm. The polls are simply not reliable anymore. I don’t know what they need to do, but they have to go back and tweak them shyts to make them credible again.

The polls are undercounting a significant portion of the voters. Biden beat Trump by 7 million popular votes (a number that continues to grow each presidential election in the favor of Democrats) and 74 electoral votes and now that Trump has four criminal cases against him, he is the favorite?

 

[Pressure]

There’s a common theme

 

[the cac mamba]

i dont see Biden winning GA again. i think the same margin that kept Kemp in the governor's seat in '22 is gonna swing GA back to trump. you can't tell me GA isn't full of republicans, and it only has to be 15k, who are gonna say "fukk biden, im going back with trump"

but i can see dems flipping NC, if they full court press on abortion. my current prediction is the same map as 2020, with those 2 states flipped. just need to flood AZ and WI with campaigning

 

[mastermind]

Can’t speak for everybody, but the reason I have to speak out on these polls is because polls have been useless since the 2016 election. I still remember NYT front page saying Hilary had an 80% chance of winning the morning of Election Day 2016. Since then, the polls have been wrong about every midterm. The polls are simply not reliable anymore. I don’t know what they need to do, but they have to go back and tweak them shyts to make them credible again.

The polls are undercounting a significant portion of the voters. Biden beat Trump by 7 million popular votes (a number that continues to grow each presidential election in the favor of Democrats) and 74 electoral votes and now that Trump has four criminal cases against him, he is the favorite?

I don’t care for the polls at all.

I still think Biden will win this year not because of his own campaign but because most voters are scared of Trump.

My only point is if you don’t like what the polls say, ignore them. That’s what I do. Attacking someone for posting polls is what people who aren’t thinking do.

That’s true to an extent.

Cause the negative news people are presenting is to say Biden will lose. It doesn’t matter if Biden loses Muslim support in Virginia. They are saying with minimal evidence( Muslims won’t vote) in Michigan which again is 10 months away.

No one knows how Georgia will play out in 2024. How the local races will and won’t play into voting patterns because most of us are armchair quarterbacking from a different state.

Yeah, that’s why I don’t follow most of these polls. I have no idea how any of these states will decide. Just don’t attack the messenger.

 

[Worthless Loser]

As I said before, thousands of white men like him around swing states. Neil even says there are people like him at the end.

 

[Jean Jacket]

America...

 

[Loose]

I'm interested why biden fans think he's going to win these swing states he's polling horribly in, what has he done to give you indication that polling is signicantly inaccurate? The trump is bad rhetoric doesn’t seem to be moving much in the party right now, he's broken multiple promises and currently funding 2 wars during a downturn

 

[Robbie3000]

i dont see Biden winning GA again. i think the same margin that kept Kemp in the governor's seat in '22 is gonna swing GA back to trump. you can't tell me GA isn't full of republicans, and it only has to be 15k, who are gonna say "fukk biden, im going back with trump"

but i can see dems flipping NC, if they full court press on abortion. my current prediction is the same map as 2020, with those 2 states flipped. just need to flood AZ and WI with campaigning

I live in Atlanta. The metro area has changed…dramatically. Practically each county in the Metro area is blue. The ATL metro area is like half of the vote of the state. That’s why Biden won in 2020 and a Jew and a black Pastor are the Senators from the great state of Georgia. Even the Republican governor had to moderate his positions, so much so that he publicly opposed Trump’s attempts to overturn the election.

I don’t have a crystal ball, but I can confidently say that Georgia will go to Biden.

 

[wire28]

Can’t speak for everybody, but the reason I have to speak out on these polls is because polls have been useless since the 2016 election. I still remember NYT front page saying Hilary had an 80% chance of winning the morning of Election Day 2016. Since then, the polls have been wrong about every midterm. The polls are simply not reliable anymore. I don’t know what they need to do, but they have to go back and tweak them shyts to make them credible again.

The polls are undercounting a significant portion of the voters. Biden beat Trump by 7 million popular votes (a number that continues to grow each presidential election in the favor of Democrats) and 74 electoral votes and now that Trump has four criminal cases against him, he is the favorite?

Yes

-higher learning all stars who aren’t afraid to bring up negative news about Biden

 

[Sohh_lifted]

again with early polls @BigMoneyGrip midterms all over

 

[Worthless Loser]

I'm interested why biden fans think he's going to win these swing states he's polling horribly in, what has he done to give you indication that polling is signicantly inaccurate? The trump is bad rhetoric doesn’t seem to be moving much in the party right now, he's broken multiple promises and currently funding 2 wars during a downturn

For multiple reasons.

-Many voters who don't pay attention to the day by day have not realized that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. The Biden campaign team has internal data on this and it's been mentioned several times by pundits separately. Once voters realize he is the nominee, I believe the narrative will completely shift.

-Political news cycles change every 4 to 6 months. Trump getting convicted on the January 6th federal case will be the main news story for months, and will make him un-electable in eyes of many independent voters and anti-Trump Republican voters. Any other conviction will just add to it. Especially in swing states. They will vote for Biden. That's thousands of votes. They will realize he's a convicted felon running for President to stay out of jail.

-The election will not be a referendum on Biden unless the economy crashes. It will be a referendum on Trump.

-Inflation is cooling, but Biden has not been getting credit for it as reflected in the polling. It's possible there is a delayed reaction where Biden starts getting credit in the summer as inflation continues to go down.

-With some exceptions, the election is really won in the last 120 days and most voter memories are short. (But they won't forget Trump being convicted) The issue of today may not be the issue in the fall.

History is also on Biden's side. Trump has lost election after election since he was President.

-Lost the House in 2018. (Expected for any President, to be fair)
-Lost the Senate and White House in 2020.
-Republicans under performed in 2022 midterms when everyone was screaming Red Wave. Roe vs Wade being overturned caused a big change in voting, but also voters viewed Republicans as extremist garbage. Republicans actually blamed Trump for the poor performance because he had MAGA supporters win primaries and lose in the general election, while Republicans felt more moderate candidates could have won in the general election. Dems pretty much had a clean sweep of all the swing states. They split Wisconsin. (I'm still upset about that because the right candidate would have defeated Ron Johnson)
-Dems won in 2023 elections.

The MAGA Republican voter base is law of subtraction, not a law of addition. It's a shrinking mess that causes Trump to have a ceiling of how much vote share he can get in the general election voter base because Trump and the MAGA movement turns off so many people. Biden on the other hand can have that big tent of voters needed to win in a general election.

More history:
-The media ran stories saying polling suggested Reagan shouldn't run for re-election. He won re-election in a landslide.
-The media had stories about people saying Clinton shouldn't run for re-election after the GOP wiped out Dems in the 94 midterm elections. Clinton won re-election.
-Bush won re-election and the popular vote while dealing with two unpopular wars and protests.
-The media even had stories about Obama saying he would lose to Romney. Romney also pulled ahead on polling before the election. Obama won re-election.

 

[bnew]