President Biden has spent much of 2024 with a
more challenging path to winning a second presidential term in November than Donald Trump. But for reasons that have become
glaringly obvious, that path has all but vanished.
Mr. Trump is now the clear front-runner to be the next president of the United States.
As I
did for Times Opinion in April, I’ve drawn on my years as a Democratic strategist to look at polling, advertising and campaign spending in the key states in this election. As several maps illustrate below, I’ve never seen such a grim Electoral College landscape for Mr. Biden: He not only faces losing battleground states he won in 2020, he is also at risk of losing traditional Democratic states like Minnesota and New Hampshire, which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama carried. If current trends continue, Mr. Trump could rack up one of the most decisive presidential victories since 2008.
Mr. Biden’s problems run much deeper than one bad debate. By spring, he had the
lowest job approval average of any recent president seeking re-election since George H.W. Bush in 1992. His support has dropped by nearly a
net 10 points since the 2022 midterm elections.
The Biden campaign hoped to change this political dynamic by calling for a historic early debate in June. What made Mr. Biden’s poor debate performance so devastating was that it reinforced voters’ strongest negative idea about his candidacy: that he is simply too old to run for re-election. In a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted after the debate, 74 percent of respondents said Mr. Biden was too old to govern another term in office.
Due to his worsening political situation, Mr. Biden now has only one narrow path to winning 270 electoral votes and the presidency in November, a more dire situation than he faced when I looked at his potential paths in April and a reality his campaign acknowledged
in a strategy memo on Thursday.
If Mr. Biden cannot demonstrate that he is still up to the job of being president, and do it soon — with a vision for where he wants to lead the country — it won’t matter what the voters think about Mr. Trump when the fall election begins.
Where the Race Started
As 2024 began, the presidential campaign looked to be a repeat of the 2020 and 2016 elections, with the same battleground states determining the outcome. Not anymore.
Mr. Trump started the general election campaign this spring with a secure base of 219 electoral votes, compared with 226 votes for Mr. Biden. Either man needs 270 electoral votes to win. The race looked like it would come down to the same seven battleground states (totaling 93 electoral votes) that determined the outcome of the last two presidential elections.