2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

[The axe murderer]

 

[wire28]

I know this is hard for the HL Centrist/Biden Boyz to understand, but not everyone is a lemming motivated by blind allegiance to political figures, some people follow things like political, moral and rational principles. Some people have no problem criticizing politicians when they're wrong, even if they support them overall.

I stopped reading at “I”

 

[wire28]

I don’t take my orders from Bern or the squad.

So are they wrong in their vigorous support of the senile demented war lord
Is this worthy of the emoji? (AOC has been racking them up lately especially after her zoom with the Zionists)

 

[MrRDU]

They not gonna like this

 

[Piff Perkins]

This has been my argument for months although I do fear the debate may blow everything up. Removing the debate from the convo though...the polls suggest Trump will win or come close to winning the youth vote, Biden will win the elderly vote, the lowest percentage of black people in decades will support the democrat, and Trump will somehow do better with women than previous republican candidates post-Roe. We've got two options here: either we've witnessing a historical realignment that hasn't happened since the 1970s OR the polls are wrong. To me the answer is obvious, the polls are wrong. Too many non-voters muddying samples, and perhaps the landline/cellphone split is resulting in a weird section of demographics getting more say than the average person in a demographic.

 

[the next guy]

The Guardian view on Joe Biden’s re-election bid: democrats can’t go on like this | Editorial

Editorial: The US president is still in denial about his ability to take on Donald Trump, but his party is not

www.theguardian.com

 

[Robbie3000]

So are they wrong in their vigorous support of the senile demented war lord
Is this worthy of the emoji? (AOC has been racking them up lately especially after her zoom with the Zionists)

Yes they are wrong like they are not infallible.

They are politicians who I agree with on a lot of issue and who haven’t done anything to make me withhold my support…..yet, but they can.

 

[No1]

This has been my argument for months although I do fear the debate may blow everything up. Removing the debate from the convo though...the polls suggest Trump will win or come close to winning the youth vote, Biden will win the elderly vote, the lowest percentage of black people in decades will support the democrat, and Trump will somehow do better with women than previous republican candidates post-Roe. We've got two options here: either we've witnessing a historical realignment that hasn't happened since the 1970s OR the polls are wrong. To me the answer is obvious, the polls are wrong. Too many non-voters muddying samples, and perhaps the landline/cellphone split is resulting in a weird section of demographics getting more say than the average person in a demographic.

What polling shows this realignment? The only off thing I’ve seen is Trump leading among 18-29 year olds and you can easily disregard that because that group isn’t responsive to polls. So you end up with MAGA ass being the only ones responding. This isn’t anything new - dumbass Howard Dean was saying 10 years ago that polls showed my age group was becoming libertarian when we just hang up when called.

 

[Piff Perkins]

What polling shows this realignment? The only off thing I’ve seen is Trump leading among 18-29 year olds and you can easily disregard that because that group isn’t responsive to polls. So you end up with MAGA ass being the only ones responding. This isn’t anything new - dumbass Howard Dean was saying 10 years ago that polls showed my age group was becoming libertarian when we just hang up when called.

Multiple polls over the last few months have shown all the things I mentioned: Trump winning or barely losing the youth vote, Biden winning the elderly vote, black supporting under 80%, etc. None of this shyt is going to happen yet the media keeps pimping the polls. My argument is that they're deliberately running with shoddy work instead of admitting this will be the third election in a row with bad general election polling. And the main culprit is unlikely voters. If you didn't vote in 2016 or 2020 - two massive elections with major implications - why would I believe you're going to vote in 2024? And why would I allow a large percentage of those unlikely voters to influence my polls? Unless my media bosses want a certain narrative.

2022 was a perfect example of what's going on. Large groups of voters with zero intention of voting - be they right wingers or disillusioned liberals/leftists/etc - were constantly used to generate polls showing massive democrat losses, massive drops in Biden's popularity, etc. Aggregate pollsters even allowed fake polls commissioned by right wing groups to be added to models, resulting in even more data saying a "red wave" was going to happen. And then it didn't. And no pollsters lost their jobs, barely any admitted they were wrong. And the intelligentsia of online opinion makers who spent months celebrating an impending democrat slaughter didn't say much either, or admit they were wrong. Does any of this sound like it may relate to our current situation.......

(And I say this as someone who thinks Biden should step down and be replaced by Kamala, btw)

 

[No1]

Multiple polls over the last few months have shown all the things I mentioned: Trump winning or barely losing the youth vote, Biden winning the elderly vote, black supporting under 80%, etc. None of this shyt is going to happen yet the media keeps pimping the polls. My argument is that they're deliberately running with shoddy work instead of admitting this will be the third election in a row with bad general election polling.

What I’m getting at without going further into your post is that none of the higher rated pollsters nor any internal polling, which the public is not privy to had shown this. I agree that they’re being lazy but a lot of that is looking for storylines. You can look at the history and rating of any poll and know it’s full of shyt. People have been doing that for 15 years.

Democrats insiders in panic are not reacting to any random outside poll. They’re reacting to fears of turnout problems, which favors republicans. Based on their internal poll of likely voters they are seeing numbers they have never seen before. They are acting out of self interest in fears Biden will bring them down with him. In all of these “over performance” races, Dems always saw a path to victory based on their own internal turnout metrics. The media was relying on poorly accredited polling because of a lack of data. This isn’t that.

 

[FAH1223]

@MushroomX

 

[Piff Perkins]

What I’m getting at without going further into your post is that none of the higher rated pollsters nor any internal polling, which the public is not privy to had shown this. I agree that they’re being lazy but a lot of that is looking for storylines. You can look at the history and rating of any poll and know it’s full of shyt. People have been doing that for 15 years.

Democrats insiders in panic are not reacting to any random outside poll. They’re reacting to fears of turnout problems, which favors republicans. Based on their internal poll of likely voters they are seeing numbers they have never seen before. They are acting out of self interest in fears Biden will bring them down with him. In all of these “over performance” races, Dems always saw a path to victory based on their own internal turnout metrics. The media was relying on poorly accredited polling because of a lack of data. This isn’t that.

Breh...the NYT/Sienna poll from last week, which is well respected, showed everything I just mentioned. This morning Nate Cohn was discussing a recent (respected) Pew survey that not only has a majority of 18-29yo voters identifying as republican...it has 18-29yo women as only a +3 democrat lean. I'm sorry but anyone who believes that is lying to you.



The Fox poll, which is also respected, showed similar shyt two weeks ago.

I see no reason to believe this election won't have massive turnout numbers btw. If I'm wrong everyone can clown me. But I called this shyt in 2022, 2023, and I'm calling it now.

 

[wire28]

Multiple polls over the last few months have shown all the things I mentioned: Trump winning or barely losing the youth vote, Biden winning the elderly vote, black supporting under 80%, etc. None of this shyt is going to happen yet the media keeps pimping the polls. My argument is that they're deliberately running with shoddy work instead of admitting this will be the third election in a row with bad general election polling. And the main culprit is unlikely voters. If you didn't vote in 2016 or 2020 - two massive elections with major implications - why would I believe you're going to vote in 2024? And why would I allow a large percentage of those unlikely voters to influence my polls? Unless my media bosses want a certain narrative.

2022 was a perfect example of what's going on. Large groups of voters with zero intention of voting - be they right wingers or disillusioned liberals/leftists/etc - were constantly used to generate polls showing massive democrat losses, massive drops in Biden's popularity, etc. Aggregate pollsters even allowed fake polls commissioned by right wing groups to be added to models, resulting in even more data saying a "red wave" was going to happen. And then it didn't. And no pollsters lost their jobs, barely any admitted they were wrong. And the intelligentsia of online opinion makers who spent months celebrating an impending democrat slaughter didn't say much either, or admit they were wrong. Does any of this sound like it may relate to our current situation.......

(And I say this as someone who thinks Biden should step down and be replaced by Kamala, btw)

Interesting thoughts

 

[wire28]

Yes they are wrong like they are not infallible.

They are politicians who I agree with on a lot of issue and who haven’t done anything to make me withhold my support…..yet, but they can.

Interesting. I figured their unabashed and enthusiastic support of Biden would be too much but I hear you

 

[FAH1223]

Multiple polls over the last few months have shown all the things I mentioned: Trump winning or barely losing the youth vote, Biden winning the elderly vote, black supporting under 80%, etc. None of this shyt is going to happen yet the media keeps pimping the polls. My argument is that they're deliberately running with shoddy work instead of admitting this will be the third election in a row with bad general election polling. And the main culprit is unlikely voters. If you didn't vote in 2016 or 2020 - two massive elections with major implications - why would I believe you're going to vote in 2024? And why would I allow a large percentage of those unlikely voters to influence my polls? Unless my media bosses want a certain narrative.

2022 was a perfect example of what's going on. Large groups of voters with zero intention of voting - be they right wingers or disillusioned liberals/leftists/etc - were constantly used to generate polls showing massive democrat losses, massive drops in Biden's popularity, etc. Aggregate pollsters even allowed fake polls commissioned by right wing groups to be added to models, resulting in even more data saying a "red wave" was going to happen. And then it didn't. And no pollsters lost their jobs, barely any admitted they were wrong. And the intelligentsia of online opinion makers who spent months celebrating an impending democrat slaughter didn't say much either, or admit they were wrong. Does any of this sound like it may relate to our current situation.......

(And I say this as someone who thinks Biden should step down and be replaced by Kamala, btw)

How do you explain in state after state, poll after poll, where the Dem Senate candidate is outrinning Biden by anywhere from 5 to 15 points?