I'm very curious to see what happens with Texas given a) how extreme their laws have become and b) the impact of all the people who migrated there after the pandemic from California and other blue states. Also the fact over the past 3 presidential elections, the percentage difference between the republican and democratic candidates has gone from 16 to 9 to 5.5 points. The only other time a Democratic candidate was that close to winning Texas (since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976) was in 1992 and that was only close due to Perot being in the race.
Not saying by any means Dems should count on Texas turning blue, but the Trump Effect is rearing it's head there.