There's been major GOTV and focusing on early voting from Republicans at all levels this cycle.hmmm that seems pretty good. if many republicans are voting earlier now, too, you'd assume the shift on election day itself wouldn't be as big as last time...
They've made it an emphasis, because pinning your hopes on low-propensity voters showing up for one day is a huge gamble, and the whole thinking behind the Trump campaign is turning out and activating those same low propensity voters.
Due to embedded distrust in mail-in voting I still think Republicans will have an advantage on ED, but there is reason to believe it won't be as drastic as 2020 or 2022.