2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

WHO WINS?


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BigMoneyGrip

I'm Lamont's pops
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Only reason this shyt is close is because she’s black and a women. If we’re being honest. If she was a white women, maybe she’d do a bit better but America isn’t ready for a women President and if we get one, it’d only be because Trump is was such a bad candidate. If the GOP had anyone but Trump on the ticket, it’d be a blowout I reckon for them.

If the goo had anyone but Trump then Harris or Biden wouldn’t have been candidates let’s keep it 500.. but thanks to Trump Dems got a deep roster for years to come
 

Kyle C. Barker

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Really? Explain please because both were bad but trumps was way worse.. you completely ignoring that covid response the the other economic shutdown… had this country literally on hours long lines food pantries

Don’t shyt here and fukkin lie you dikk head :scust:


I hate to play the body count game but I think there were more US COVID deaths in 2020 than there were Iraqi civilian deaths throughout that whole occupation.
 
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The whole country will be watching the debate. Chill on the "podcasts" conversation. The debate is what all of the focus and attention is on. She said it herself.
She really doesnt need to do any media tours till after the debate, doing so before woupdve just opened up more lanes for fukkery at the actual debate. This way we know the 5-10 topica they'll throw at her. Border, inflation, abortion, economy, Isreal, Russia, her race, her record. Americans have short attention spans so no point in giving your best early
 

Robbie3000

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NYT Sienna is an excellent pollster but I also think the new registrations numbers favor Harris. I think that people not understanding polls or just straight up being confused by 2016 has turned them intro the political equivalent of anti-analytics truthers in sports. I think analytics are used wrong - I don’t think the idea of them is wrong.

The first thing you should do when you see a poll is (1) is this a high rated pollster and how accurate have they been in recent elections, (2) are they connected to one of the parties - i.e. the vast amount of right wing flooding polls in 2022 to make you think there was a red wave, and (3) what are the actual variables they are considering and measuring and if you think they are practical.

If you’re not doing all of that you’re just practicing some sort of polling religiosity or polling atheism one way or the other and neither is a sensible position. Saying “this poll got it wrong” without explaining how the poll got it wrong is the equivalent to saying an NFL QB made the wrong read without knowing what play call or coverage was.

Side bar: I literally oversee vendor contracts with certain polling firms and the high rated ones are paid a lot because they are good.

I don’t know what to make of pols that have Trump leading nationally with 48% when he has never cracked 47% in actual voting and Republicans have only won one popular vote in the last 36 years.

The math ain’t adding up so I’d rather just base my assessment on actual historical data.
 
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