2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

[Tony D'Amato]

I blame democrats and their policies. They lowkey have zero answers and their campaigning is atrocious

 

[Tyrantus]

Lord, now this Nap account is going to flood the thread with it's nonsense again. We also have yet another not so undercover Trump supporter in @Tony D'Amato stinking up the joint, too. It's going to be a long two months.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Lord, now this Nap account is going to flood the thread with it's nonsense again. We also have yet another not so undercover Trump supporter in @Tony D'Amato stinking up the joint, too. It's going to be a long two months.

Are you a trump supporter if you think Kamala needs to improve her campaign dexterity to meet the moment?

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

fukk the Amish…

The shyt they get away with on the low is disgusting. Wild child abuse, child labor violations, child sexual abuse. All quiet as kept because they are portrayed as these hokie, old timey people. And they already typically vote Trump/Republican. They’re not saving shyt.

Sounds like the Jew engine in NYC

 

[Macallik86]

You think if the election was today Trump would have a 62 percent chance to win? Because that’s what he’s saying

AFAIK, it's not quite that simple. Polls are not the only factor in his model, it is also accounting for an expected convention bounce & also heavily weights Penn. as a canary in the coal mine/must win state. As a result, his model is temporarily handicapping her numbers a bit to account for that (her convention bounce). If/when she weathers the storm, if everything stays the same, her odds of winning will increase in his model even if the polls stay about the same.

He also bumped Trumps chances up today when Kamala had two good polls from A plus pollsters so this isn’t me being bias from a logic standpoint this isn’t making much sense how he adjusts odds day to day with his polling

It seems to me he has to fill content everyday so instead of saying “look alot of junk polls have come out recently there is no update it’s a 50/50 race” saying Kamala keeps slipping for God knows what reason gets more clicks/views from scared Dems

This was in his newsletter fwiw:

The convention bounce adjustment is one of those things that keeps me up at night, though. It can make the model's behavior counterintuitive, e.g., Harris gaining in the polling average while losing ground in the forecast.

SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again?

Plus, the mistakes I made in the “data journalism” era.

www.natesilver.net

I agree with you on those pods. I think going on Lex Friedman would be ok

He doesn’t aeem hyper partisan and while he’ll ask tough questions it won’t be for a “gotcha” moment

I've heard of him but the Trump podcast is the first time I've been exposed to Lex's content directly. Regardless of the platform, from a policy perspective, Dems can improve on telling men what they will do for them overall.

I live a good life, so I'm not the target demo, but if I was struggling out here, they really aren't highlighting what is in it for the average man in any of their policy. Not even a 'rising tides raise all ships, so this policy for women will help you too' kinda vibe

Overall, I think that Kamala still has a good shot, but I'm concerned about PA as Kamala's lead narrows in many polls (not just in Nate's forecast). I plan on volunteering to phone bank for PA to try to shift the momentum where I can

 

[br82186]

So Indian dude unbanned

 

[Tony D'Amato]

Lord, now this Nap account is going to flood the thread with it's nonsense again. We also have yet another not so undercover Trump supporter in @Tony D'Amato stinking up the joint, too. It's going to be a long two months.

See what Im sayin. Shyt like this is why Donald Trump about to get re elected. Democrats can't take any kind of criticism.

I could never be s Trump supporter, cuz I hate Trump. I just wont vote. Cuz I live in California for 1 and Kamala is a horrible candidate

 

[Pressure]

See what Im sayin. Shyt like this is why Donald Trump about to get re elected. Democrats can't take any kind of criticism.

I could never be s Trump supporter, cuz I hate Trump. I just wont vote. Cuz I live in California for 1 and Kamala is a horrible candidate

Shut up
.

Dems took plenty of criticism. That's how you ended up with Kamala.

It's just some of you guys wants to be Republicans but can't openly because it makes you a c00n.

 

[Trips]

nate silver calculated for this?

Higher than expected black registration.

+3pts for Kamala
Trump chances 57.5%

 

[the cac mamba]

Are you a trump supporter if you think Kamala needs to improve

yes

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

holy shyt

Let @FAH1223 and Flabby Nate Silver tell it.. Trump is up in PA and will win

 

[the cac mamba]

the way that these weak, insecure motherfukkers mistake inability to admit losses as strength

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

I actually believe this.

Kamala may be the glass ceiling candidate. Biden stepped out too late.

And she’s GOTTA do more alternative media.

Her traveling aint gonna make up for the lack of digital interaction she has.

And Hillary wasn’t the glass ceiling candidate? We can def tell which nap personality is posting

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

Trump is doing a podcast a day on a new right wing platform with millions of hits.

Kamala isn’t doing any of that shyt unless you listen to TV or Radio.

She’s actually behind IMO. They gotta act like this is 2024. They’re behaving like they’re in 2018.

That presidential election hit real different back in 2018

Who mans is this?

 

[Tony D'Amato]

Shut up
.

Dems took plenty of criticism. That's how you ended up with Kamala.

It's just some of you guys wants to be Republicans but can't openly because it makes you a c00n.

Then I should be happy, cuz Trump about to win big