2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

Here's where I'm going to irritate some people but it has to be reiterated given the topic. The race was close in the polls when Biden dropped out. Yes, there was some very bleak looking internal polling data which Nancy Pelosi and others (rightly so..) were very worried about...

But the polls were still close and I imagine Trump/Vance would have still lost a large swath of women and moderate suburban voters because their "policies" if you can call them that are very unpopular with anyone who has a clue and their ear to the street.

I'm not saying this because of Biden, I'm saying this because I think Trump ceiling is still 46-47% of the vote as I've been saying.

In 2016 he hit 46%

In 2020 he hit 46%

Kamala is probably going to win the popular vote going away... but she needs to win it by enough of a margin where it secures most of the "Biden 2020" states.

 

[br82186]

What about women who can't have kids???

Swear these folks are retards and I just found out this hack ass bytch lives near Potomac Yard which along with Del Ray and Old Town is true blue.

 

[Trips]

I guess everyone hated all that joy and wokeness

Probably wouldn't have hurt to add eve more white people to the convention. Like when Kamala's nieces and Kerry Washington were teaching the viewers how to say her name. Throw in some token white kids. MAGA is all about everyone is coming for the White Man (and woman)

 

[Robbie3000]

I didn't compare Hillary to Kamala. I compared democrats burying their head in the sand when they didn't like the polls in 2016 and how it is happening again in this thread.

My point is that we can be pro-Kamala and pro-democracy w/o attacking any datapoints that suggest that the race is tight/tightening.

Trump is going to lose badly with the popular vote, but just like 2020, The margins in the battleground states will be tight. The difference in 2020 was a few hundred thousand votes spread out across five states.

My confidence comes from Dems having a numbers advantage. If Dem voters are excited and motivated, chances of winning are high. That’s why it was crucial to get Biden out the paint.

 

[Trips]

Trump is going to lose badly with the popular vote, but just like 2020, The margins in the battleground states will be tight. The difference in 2020 was a few hundred thousand votes spread out across five states.

My confidence comes from Dems having a numbers advantage. If Dem voters are excited and motivated, chances of winning are high. That’s why it was crucial to get Biden out the paint.

2016 was also a few thousand votes. Hillary took some states for granted and Trump had "unknown" variable with nonstop media glazing. We're a decade into this hopefully the margins go the other way where people vote against him just because they are tired of seeing his ass running for office.

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

2016 was also a few thousand votes. Hillary took some states for granted and Trump had "unknown" variable with nonstop media glazing. We're a decade into this hopefully the margins go the other way where people vote against him just because they are tired of seeing his ass running for office.

I think it comes down to Kamala and her campaign being able to translate the excitement for her into real votes. When I see things like "black women registration is up x%" in a key swing state area or "Dem turnout in Washington was very high a couple weeks ago" those are the things I'm looking for that show she's turning this into real votes...

When I see things like "look how excited everyone is on college campuses" I hit pause because young people are not reliable... They will talk all that shyt but then somehow "forget" to go vote..

Some metrics matter and others are just noise... Nobody can say Kamala isn't hitting every purple state. So that's good. They are showing up everywhere and as pointed out even in rural areas where they will lose because this will be all about turnout and then trimming the margins...

 

[88m3]

RFK sure knows how to pick them

she's dumbed than she looks and that's something

 

[Frump]

This.

If we like the message, then we'll accept anyone who says it.. That's why ppl are reposting political tweets from a tech entrepreneur like Chris Bouzy (and posters here take his perspective and shout "It's going to be a landslide Kamala victory")

On the other hand, current pollsters working for Kamala and election vets like Nate Silver point out that the race is tightening and they get ignored/ridiculed. This is exactly how 2016 happened.. the polls weren't wrong, they were ignored when the race tightened.

I realize that we (myself included) are getting a steady diet of pro-Kamala, anti-Trump content in this thread and based on who we follow. This is also how most of us got blindsided by Biden's debate performance until it was on front street. I saw cliff notes on Theo Vonn interviewing Trump and it was not nearly as boisterous or cantankerous as the clips we typically see of Trump, and that is the content more likely to reach uninformed voters rather than the DNC or CNN. That is why Trump doing a world tour on all the podcasts that disaffected men listen to (Adin Ross, Elon Musk, etc) is going to be a problem if they turn from unlikely voters -> likely voters.

I'm not of the camp that thinks that Kamala should've offered an olive branch to RFK Jr, but I do realize that there's a large swath of the population that don't feel like we do, and ignoring them isn't going to increase our odds of winning

I don’t think anyone logically thinks it’s gonna be a blowout I just don’t believe things like Trump gained ground during the DNC because he did Theo Vons podcast

Podcasts don’t decide elections it’s a niche audience.

I do think Dems should do more podcasts in the future only because they’re losing young men at a rapid rate

Just like they’ve been proactive in trying to get rural and rust belt men back this election I think in the future they should get on podcasts and UFC and sporting events to try to get some young guys who aren’t lost causes

 

[88m3]

Spoiler: full text

1/1
MAGA: America does not have a gun problem!

*while speaking from behind a bulletproof glass*


To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196

Spoiler: larger images

I can not even begin to describe how disturbing this is


there's nothing decent about these people anymore if there ever was



what the Republican party has done to the people of this country can never be forgiven

 

[Macallik86]

I don’t think anyone logically thinks it’s gonna be a blowout I just don’t believe things like Trump gained ground during the DNC because he did Theo Vons podcast

Podcasts don’t decide elections it’s a niche audience.

I do think Dems should do more podcasts in the future only because they’re losing young men at a rapid rate

Just like they’ve been proactive in trying to get rural and rust belt men back this election I think in the future they should get on podcasts and UFC and sporting events to try to get some young guys who aren’t lost causes

I don't think that Theo Vonn's podcast is moving people like that either (altho the video format does have +10 million views). My point is that Trumps is reaching people that are in conservative/undecided bubbles in the same way that Kamala is reaching people like us who are in a liberal bubble... If Trump started to gain ground and Kamala started to lose ground, it would seem fake/manufactured to us because we are silo'd from that world.

I do agree on young men being overlooked. Ezra Klein had a great podcast on it (you can skip the video and just read the comments section for the vibes).

 

[CrimsonTider]

The country leans left. The reality is politicians from both parties run interference to keep left leaning ideas from becoming policy because once they do people don't want them taken away. The right has been trying for decades to figure out how to package the dismantling of social security for example. Usually the right can get the general public to not push for those policies though. The left is terrible at messaging and packaging their ideas.

The left is terrible at politics

 

[Frump]

I don't think that Theo Vonn's podcast is moving people like that either (altho the video format does have +10 million views). My point is that Trumps is reaching people that are in conservative/undecided bubbles in the same way that Kamala is reaching people like us who are in a liberal bubble... If Trump started to gain ground and Kamala started to lose ground, it would seem fake/manufactured to us because we are silo'd from that world.

I do agree on young men being overlooked. Ezra Klein had a great podcast on it (you can skip the video and just read the comments section for the vibes).

Agreed even though I do think Trump hit his peak by now and everyone knows who he is there aren’t many undecideds on him

Why I think Kamala will pull out a close race is she has the higher ceiling and more undecideds to possibly convince who don’t really know her

 

[Sghost597]

 

[Trips]

The country leans left. The reality is politicians from both parties run interference to keep left leaning ideas from becoming policy because once they do people don't want them taken away. The right has been trying for decades to figure out how to package the dismantling of social security for example. Usually the right can get the general public to not push for those policies though. The left is terrible at messaging and packaging their ideas.

I don't buy that. The country "Polls" left. They don't vote left. There are a ton of motherfukkers that like "obamacare", like "recreational weed", like "child tax credits", like "felons being granted their voting rights back" like "gambling" and then they vote for people who blatantly stand for the opposite.

So many right wing guys get re-elected while outright saying they don't fukk with that shyt, and their voters don't give a fukk.

yeah it's really hard to repeal something like "Obamacare" you know the ACA because the idiots that hate Obamacare love the ACA. They also hate the idea of people that don't look like them somehow getting ahead of them.

The left is bad at messaging I won't deny it. But, a lot of people that like progressive ideas are bad at hiding they hate POCs and anyone that they think might potentially do better than them more. There is no universal populist ideal, there is no universal we all agree this is a needed thing. Because in that voting booth. There is a fukk them mentality.

 

[Trips]

Imagine what it would be if we had a generic white male like hall monitor Andy beshear tho amirite?? @the cac mamba

When he takes one of those red ass senate seats in Kentucky.



keep that energy