CNN tries to throw cold water on any good news for Kamala
I don’t think anyone should take it for granted and think it’s in the bag but let’s also not ignore the difference in momentum now from 2016 and 2020
If the polls are off and underestimate Trump as much as they did even in 2020 yes he would win but you could also say they could be off against Kamala and it could be a Kamala blowout
Plus Kamala still has the DNC bump I don’t see where Trump is gonna get another bump from
The problem with this thinking is that the polls are worse now in Trump's favor, not the other way around. The pollsters keep trying to adjust to Trump's advantages by adding more and more unlikely voters into their models. They also keep reaching weird groups of people who still have land lines. That's how we get samples where 20%+ of black people support Trump, or a majority of elderly voters support Biden/Harris. That's not happening in real life.
The poll methodology is not the same every 4 years so we can't just assume democrats need the same total percentage lead in order to avoid a 2016-style loss. Trump won a low turnout election that year, barely, with major assists from a terrible Hillary campaign and the media who clearly wanted him to win. He lost a high turnout election in 2020. I think he will lose a high turnout election in 2024.
Also worth noting...he's still stuck at 46%. We've had two elections in a row where he was stuck there and it will happen again.