2020 Random NFL Thoughts Thread

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Buckeyes brehs reading this thread:

Who was the better prospect Okudah or Lattimore?
 

FakeNews

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1. Why I’d rather be the Rams than the Eagles
Goff played Sunday as though he was determined to rebut the prevailing evaluation of him in relation to Wentz. Thirteen consecutive completions to start the game helped stake the Rams to a 21-3 lead. Overall, Goff completed 74 percent of his passes with three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 9.9-yard average per attempt. Wentz tossed his third and fourth interceptions of the season against a defense that has started fast under new coordinator Brandon Staley. This was the second successive week the Rams allowed three points in a second half.

Additional performances such as this one will change perceptions of the Rams. Those perceptions could be incorrect regardless.

Yes, the Rams hurt themselves with bad deals for offensive weapons Todd Gurley (cut) and Brandin Cooks (traded). Conventional wisdom says the Rams mortgaged their future by trading two first-round picks for cornerback Jalen Ramsey. It says the Rams sacrificed roster flexibility through lucrative deals for Goff, defensive tackle Aaron Donald and Ramsey, to say nothing of recent agreements with receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, solid players who aren’t game-changing talents. Conventional wisdom — plus votes from 50 coaches and evaluators in my 2020 Quarterback Tiers project — says Goff is a Tier 3 quarterback with a lower ceiling than players such as, say, the Eagles’ Wentz.

The truth might be quite different. Let’s bust two key myths.

Myth No. 1: Wentz is better than Goff

Wentz finished 11th, solidly in Tier 2, in voting by the 50 coaches and evaluators this past offseason. Goff was 16th and the third quarterback in Tier 3, one spot below Kirk Cousins. Even if you prefer Wentz, a fuller assessment would include these teams’ play-calling head coaches as part of the evaluation. Sean McVay and Goff could be pulling ahead of Doug Pederson and Wentz. They are so much more cohesive, and armed with better weaponry. Goff is such an extension of McVay that the head coach gets disproportionate credit when the quarterback plays well. Wentz regularly plays outside the system in search of the big play. It can be part of his appeal, but he must learn to pick his spots.

“Wentz tries to make too much out of the plays, like he is going to pull out of a sack and rip away from a tackle and then throw it down the field,” a coach who has studied Wentz said, “or he is going to wait one more hitch to make the big play down the field instead of just getting the ball out of his hands. And he screws it up for everybody else. From a coaching standpoint, it is selfish. He should know better at this time in his career with the kind of coaching he is getting and the players he has around him.”

Goff’s rough 0-7 start to his career under former coach Jeff Fisher in 2016 created perceptions that have been hard to shake.

“When people get a perception about a guy, it becomes reality,” a former head coach said. “Goff can throw six straight perfect throws and miss one, and they are talking about something — his footwork or whatever. He makes a lot of big-time throws, more than most. He is an accurate passer. But when they do good, it’s because of the coach and when they struggle it’s because of Goff. If you are the coach, that is a pretty good way to have it.”

Both quarterbacks have suffered at times as the support around them has fluctuated. Wentz’s weaponry was abysmal last season. Goff and the Rams’ offense struggled to replace prime Gurley. Both quarterbacks have struggled when their offensive lines faltered. But it’s looking as though McVay/Goff is the stabler compound relative to Pederson/Wentz. It’s gotten harder to say Wentz is the better of the two.

Myth No. 2: The Rams are screwed from a roster standpoint

No doubt, the Rams’ commitment to Goff, Donald and now Ramsey will force the team to draft effectively. The Rams will have to make that happen with less capital at their disposal after sending two No. 1 picks to Jacksonville in the Ramsey trade. But with multiple other players potentially coming off the books next year — tackle Andrew Whitworth and defensive lineman Michael Brockers come to mind as possibilities — there is at least some wiggle room. And in stacking the Rams’ drafts from 2017-20 against the Eagles’ drafts over the same period, Los Angeles comes out ahead, despite having zero first-round picks across those four drafts.

In addition to Ramsey, arguably the best player on either the Rams’ or Eagles’ roster, Los Angeles since 2017 has drafted starters in Kupp, guard Joseph Noteboom, safety John Johnson, linebacker Samson Ebukam, linebacker Micah Kiser, defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph and safety Jordan Fuller, plus kicker Sam Sloman. The Eagles over the same period landed starters in defensive end Derek Barnett, receiver Jalen Reagor, tight end Dallas Goedert, running back Miles Sanders, cornerback Avonte Maddox and safety Nathan Gerry (potential starting tackle Andre Dillard is out for the season).

The Rams over the same four-draft span have drafted a long list of key backups: tight end Gerald Everett, running back Cam Akers, Jefferson, safety Taylor Rapp, running back Darrell Hendersron, receiver Josh Reynolds, defensive end Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and tackle David Edwards. The Eagles’ key backups drafted since 2017: defensive end Josh Sweat and offensive lineman Jack Driscoll. That’s a huge disparity driven by the fact Los Angeles has selected 12 players in the second and third rounds since 2017, tied for third-most in the league. The team also acquired starting guard Austin Corbett, a 2018 second-round pick of the Cleveland Browns, in exchange for a 2021 fifth-rounder, and signed backup linebacker Jachai Polite, a 2019 third-round pick of the New York Jets. That slew of second-and third-rounders comprises the young replacements Los Angeles is banking on to fill out a top-heavy roster. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ starters in Week 1 averaged 28.2 years in age, highest in the NFL (I excluded quarterbacks from the calculation, given that having an older player at that position isn’t necessarily telling).

The Rams are also in line to receive third- and fourth-round compensatory picks in 2021, compared to picks in the sixth and seventh rounds for Philadelphia, according to projections at overthecap.com.

“The Rams are shaping up to be like the Falcons were from 2012 to 2016 or 2017,” an exec said. “The big difference is the Falcons after 2012 had their first-round pick every year.”

With those first-rounders, the Falcons selected cornerback Desmond Trufant (22nd in 2013), tackle Jake Matthews (sixth in 2014), pass-rusher Vic Beasley (eighth in 2015) and safety Keanu Neal (17th in 2016). All four have been named to a Pro Bowl, but they are not elite difference makers in the mold of Ramsey. The Rams, owners of the NFL’s fourth-best record since 2017, are typically drafting later in the order. Would they trade Ramsey for, say, the equivalent of Neal and Trufant?

“I’d for sure rather have Ramsey,” the exec said. “And relative to the Eagles, I think I would probably rather be the Rams. It has less to do with the quarterback and more to do with everything else. I would think the Rams have better assets even without a first-round pick next year, just because they have a little more flexibility and their roster is younger.”

The Rams in the final five weeks of last season blew out both Arizona (34-7) and Seattle (28-12) before losing to San Francisco (34-31) on a last-second field goal. They are 35-15 over the past four seasons. Only New Orleans, Kansas City and New England have been better. Baltimore is also 35-15.
 
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